A Glass Ball Is Better Than a Running Man

It always seems to happen at The University of Texas.  Either a players gets shafted out of a Heisman Trophy (see Vince Young, 2005, Colt McCoy, 2009), or comes into the season with such high expectations that they falter and drop out of the race early.  It seems that's what happened with Colt McCoy this season.  After narrowly losing to OU's Sam Bradford last year, McCoy came into this season as the favorite to win the Heisman.  After a few shaky performances, McCoy has been lights out the past few weeks.  But as many experts will tell you, it's too little too late.

The biggest reason for McCoy dropping out of the lead for the Heisman isn't because of his poor play.  He's started slow, yes, but finished the second half of games with poise and accuracy.  Sure, his interception numbers are up from last year, his touchdowns and accuracy are down, and he hasn't been running the ball as effectively either.  But here's the key: almost every other player in the Heisman race hasn't lived up to expectations.  Tim Tebow, currently second on many Heisman watch lists, hasn't looked like himself all season, especially after his concussion against Kentucky.  Case Keenum plays for Houston.  McCoy has played great down the stretch against OU, demolished a decent Oklahoma State secondary, and, oh yeah, his team is undefeated. 

The biggest reason for McCoy not being at the top of the list is simple: the opposition he's faced has been less than stellar, to say the least.  Texas has had one of the easiest schedules in the nation.  But whose fault is that?  Missouri was supposed to be ranked coming into the season.  Oklahoma wasn't supposed to be missing two of their three best players.  Oklahoma State wasn't supposed to have been missing their best wide receiver, possibly the best receiver in the country.  With the Big XII conference not playing up to its standards this season, McCoy has been under scrutiny for struggling against opposition that he would have and should have beat soundly. 

The reasons for McCoy's struggles are still a mystery.  Rumors swirl that he's been sick for weeks.  The fact that his top receiver from the past two years, Quan Cosby, is now playing the NFL is a huge factor.  Other than Jordan Shipley, McCoy hadn't built any rapport with a receiver before this season.  Be that as it may, McCoy has lead the Longhorns to the number 2 spot in the nation, essentially a guarantee to play for the national title, and is finishing strong down the stretch.  Unless Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, or Alabama's Mark Ingram falter to end the season, I don't see McCoy jumping back up to the lead for the Heisman.

But I'm sure he and all the fans of the Longhorns would much rather see him holding the BCS Championship Trophy at the end of the year rather than the Heisman.