BCS Championship Prediction: Why the Texas Longhorns Will Beat Alabama

As it stands now, Florida, Texas, and Alabama hold the top three spots in the BCS standings, and it doesn't seem like anything will change that until the forthcoming match up between Florida and Alabama in the SEC title game.

Most have tabbed Florida the favorite in a game against Alabama, and it is likely that Florida would prevail and go on to face Texas in the BCS Championship game.

However, Alabama tripping up Florida is a plausible scenario, and such an event would put the Crimson Tide in the title game opposite the Longhorns.

Here's what I believe would happen if these two teams were to meet for the grand prize (keep in mind this is mere speculation as it is no guarantee that Florida/Alabama and Texas will reach Pasadena, though it seems very likely).

Offense

Texas holds a clear advantage when comparing the two offenses.

The Longhorns boast the highest scoring offense in the nation (41 points per game) while Alabama averages just around 30.

Texas and Alabama are almost even in terms of yards of total offense, but that stat is deceiving considering the Longhorns have scored nine non-offensive touchdowns this season.

The Longhorns have been extremely efficient on third down, converting 44% of the time while the Crimson Tide are converting at just 38 percent.

While Colt McCoy isn't boasting the gaudy numbers he had at this time last year, he's been more than serviceable for Texas.  He is still completing just over 70 percent of his passes, which is good for second in the nation.

McCoy has yet to have his best game, which is scary considering he's gotten on a hot streak ever since the Oklahoma game.

Receiver Jordan Shipley has been absolutely amazing for the Longhorns, grabbing 64 balls for 777 yards and five touchdowns to along with two punt return touchdowns and one kickoff return for a touchdown.

Marquis Goodwin and Malcolm Williams are viable deep threats with their rare speed.

Dan Buckner has fit in to the flex-tight end position nicely and provides a big target for McCoy.

The offensive line has given up a few more sacks than Colt McCoy would like (15), but it's still one of the best units in the country.  Senior tackle Adam Ulatoski is a monster and pushes opposing defensive lineman around with ease while center Chris Hall can play any position along the line.

While Texas has no set starter at running back, Cody Johnson and Fozzy Whittaker have both proven to be reliable runners (Johnson is thunder, Whittaker is lightning).  Freshman D.J. Monroe adds an interesting dynamic to the position as well.

As for the Crimson Tide, quarterback Greg McElroy has been decent, but nowhere near the elite level of McCoy.

McElroy is completing just 59 percent of his passes and is averaging just seven yards per completion.

Running back Mark Ingram has been entrenched in the Heisman race all season long, as he has already broken 1,000 yards rushing. However, it remains to be seen how he could function against the nations number one rush defense.

Receiver Julio Jones is a rare physical specimen who has all the talent in the world, but 'Bama's inefficient passing attack has left Jones with just one touchdown on the season.  They simply can't get the ball to him consistently, and it is unlikely they would be able to do so against a tough Texas secondary.

Alabama's offensive line has only given up eight sacks on the year, but they have struggled to protect McElroy at times, especially against a stout Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide offense has served its purpose this season, but if it were forced to keep pace with an offense like Texas', it would fizzle.

Defense:

Defense is the name of the game in the SEC, which is why I give Alabama a very, very slight edge in that department.

Alabama is giving up around 11 points a game and only 240 yards of offense.

Marcell Dareus has been a terror up front, racking up four and a half sacks on the season while anchoring a line that is giving up only 64 yards rushing per game.

The secondary, led by senior Javier Arenas (four sacks, one interception), has been amazing in its own right, surrendering just 176 yards through the air per game. 

Colt McCoy has struggled a little bit this season forcing the ball down the field, and I would expect the Alabama defense to capitalize on even the smallest of mistakes. 

Moreover, Texas' offensive line struggled mightily with Oklahoma's defensive front, which means the Bama line could likely cause some major trouble as well.

On the other side, Will Muschamp's Longhorn defense has been playing out of this world.

The Longhorns boast the best run defense in the country, allowing only 54 yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry. 

Sergio Kindle has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks (two and half sacks) as he uses his size/speed combination to overpower larger offensive lineman.

Linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy has been a steady presence in the middle of the field, as he is able to fly around and make plays in both run and pass defense (two sacks, four passes broken up).

Safety Earl Thomas may very well be the next Thorpe winner, as he already has six interceptions on the season, two of which he has taken back for touchdowns.

The resurgent Longhorn secondary is allowing just 187 yards passing per game and is holding opposing quarterbacks to mere 52 percent completion rate.

Alabama plays defensive-minded football, but Texas' revamped defense can play dirty too.

Special Teams:

Texas has a pretty significant advantage in the special teams department.

Jordan Shipley has returned two punts and kick off back for touchdowns this season.

Speedster D.J. Monroe has returned two kick offs for touchdowns, as well.

None of of the Crimson Tide returners have scored touchdowns so far this season.

In terms of blocking punts, Alabama has four (one won the game for them against Tennessee) and Texas has two on the season.

The fact that the Longhorns have so many weapons in the return game gives them the ability to score quick points and shift momentum.

Final Analysis

This game would come down to Alabama's ability to keep Colt McCoy locked down. 

McCoy is dangerous on the run and you can bet offensive coordinator Greg Davis would want to get him outside the pocket early and often against an overly-aggressive Alabama defense.

It is unlikely that Bama quarterback Greg McElroy would have much time to do anything, making stand-out receiver Julio Jones irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

While Alabama has the defense to keep Texas in check for a little while, it simply doesn't have the offense to capitalize.  Texas' defense is much improved and it would simply pin its ears back with a multitude of different blitz packages to make McElroy as uncomfortable as possible while keeping star running back Mark Ingram in check.

Texas and Alabama get locked in a knock-down, drag-out game, until Colt McCoy gets in sync with Jordan Shipley, and Texas pulls away late.

Texas 28  Alabama 17