BCS Predictions: What Bowl Games Will TCU, Boise State and Cincinnati End Up In?

With Texas riding the sympathy vote to the championship game, it's conceivable that TCU, Boise State, and Cincinnati all end up looking for a bowl to call home despite undefeated records.

That's not entirely a bad thing, naturally. If both TCU and Boise were to crack the BCS, it would be the first time two teams from the non-Big Six conferences both entered the BCS (excluding Notre Dame appearances), and that spells progress for the WAC and the MWC.

Additionally, Cincinnati will have a chance at augmenting the Big East's standing, and if they draw a favorable BCS matchup and win big, calls for a split national champion and a playoff will just get louder and more viable.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, let's find out where these teams' undefeated records will likely take them.

TCU

The one remaining test the Horned Frogs face is the Utah game, which the Utes won in narrow fashion on a late touchdown pass from Brian Johnson in 2008.

The Horned Frogs will play the Utes at home this year and should win, albeit closely. From there, TCU will coast to the end of the season for their first Mountain West conference championship since 2005.

Short of the national championship, TCU can still look forward to an invitation to one of the BCS bowls.

Because of losing No. 1 Florida to the National Championship, the Sugar Bowl will get the first overall at-large pick because of its SEC tie-in. Historically, the bowls have usually selected the highest BCS team with no prior conference affiliation, which might be TCU at season's end (the Orange Bowl will probably want Cincinnati because of prior conference affiliation, even if the Bearcats are ranked higher; plus, TCU will be a larger and more controversial draw).

The Sugar Bowl also will pick the SEC runner-up against the at-large bid, so this should be a great opportunity for the Horned Frogs' stellar defense to line up across from the Alabama Crimson Tide or the LSU Tigers and stake a claim for the Mountain West to join the Big Six as a legitimate conference.

The Utah Utes did it to the Tide last year—two years in a row would be embarrassing for the SEC and would take a little luster off that superior-conference shine.

I think of all possible teams, TCU is the one most well-suited to pull off the SEC upset a year after their MWC brethren did it. They're a balanced and well-coached team that has proven their ability to travel well, and they've got the pedigree on defense to line up and stifle the Mark Ingrams and get after the Jordan Jeffersons of the SEC.

It would be a slugfest, but definitely a slugfest worth watching.

Boise State

Boise State's toughest remaining games are against themselves.

Yes, the adage is true.  The only team that can beat the Boise State Broncos are the Boise State Broncos. They get the Idaho Vandals and Nevada Wolf Pack at home, and we all know about Boise State's home advantage by now, don't we?

So with an undefeated record, we would all like it if Boise State returned to the same place their continuous BCS flirtation was launched, the Fiesta Bowl.

Site of the hook-and-lateral/Statue of Liberty/Ian Johnson marriage proposal one-two-three combo, the Fiesta Bowl is where the Broncos busted the "BCS is BS" conversation wide open three years ago in the best bowl game of 2006.

The Fiesta Bowl gets the second at-large pick and typically invites a Big 12 champion, but that spot will be vacated by Texas. That means the Fiesta actually has two at-large picks.

Boise will be the first pick; they should remain in the top eight BCS conversation throughout the year, despite the lack of big games remaining.

But who their opponent would be makes for an intriguing scenario. I can envision a one-loss Big Ten team like Penn State or Ohio State. But what if the Buckeyes beat Penn State, then lose to Iowa? Or what if the Spartans avenge last year's loss to Penn State by getting one back at home?

The BCS commission forbids the selection of more than two teams from any conference, so don't get your hopes up, LSU fans. But they still might hesitate to select a two-loss Big Ten team over a two-loss team like, say, Notre Dame or USC.

Yes, as nauseating as it is, it might be likely that the BCS commission selects the Irish or the Trojans for their at-large bid in the Fiesta Bowl. The Trojans did only drop down to No. 12 after the humiliation at Oregon, and Notre Dame is making a steady climb up the BCS ladder as we speak.

Still, a Boise-USC or Boise-Notre Dame game might be interesting. Boise proved they could beat Oregon, so transitively, they should destroy USC, right?

Eh, probably not. I could see USC humiliating Boise and retaining their BCS dominance despite the bad loss. The Trojan defensive line would pressure young Kellen Moore into some bad throws, and we might find ourselves watching another Georgia/Hawaii.

Boise has to hope for the Big Ten to represent, or, better yet, for Notre Dame to catch a bid. I think the Irish game could be a great shootout between the two teams.

I could also see the Nittany Lion defense confounded in attempting to contain Moore and the speedy offense, so that would be a great matchup, too.

The rooting interest in the Boise case is a close game. If Boise drew a team that dominated them, it would only set the WAC back even further in viewers' eyes.

Cincinnati

Until 2005, the Orange Bowl represented the Big East Conference champion. Now the ACC champion gets an automatic bid to Landshark Stadium.

Still, the Orange Bowl Selection Committee will be predisposed to select the undefeated Big East team with their at-large bid, as they did in choosing Louisville in 2006 and the Bearcats to face the Virginia Tech Hokies in 2008.

It looks like the Bearcats will face the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, who should have little trouble getting through the rest of the ACC Coastal schedule and besting the Atlantic representative (Boston College? Clemson? Been there, beat them) to get to the Orange.

Paul Johnson's triple option is a tough attack to defend, and the Yellow Jackets defense has seen breakout performances from Derrick Morgan and Sedrick Griffin, so Georgia Tech will be a tough draw for any team.

But Cincinnati might be well-suited to line up across from the triple option. They've got an undersized but speedy defense, like the kind the Miami Hurricanes utilized in blowing past Georgia Tech's downfield blocks.

Their terrific passing attack lead by Tony Pike (and, possibly, Zach Collaros, who has filled in admirably for Pike since his wrist injury) should have little trouble against GT's secondary.

That secondary, the weakest element of their defense, was exposed in the shootouts against Clemson, Miami and Florida State, so Pike and Collaros will look to stretch the field with All-Big East receiver Marty Gilyard.

If the Bearcats can figure out Johnson's system and score points like LSU did in last year's Chick-Fil-A Bowl romp (the Tigers won 38-3, in a game that was never close), they could make a strong case for a split national championship and tip the balance further in favor of a BCS playoff.

Which, as you know, is where we'll all win.