Ideal Landing Spots for NBA Restricted Free Agent D'Angelo Russell
D'Angelo Russell's career year came at the right time.
After securing his first-ever All-Star selection and spearheading the Brooklyn Nets' return to the playoffs, he enters restricted free agency primed for a massive payday. Questions about his performance, its sustainability and his overall ceiling remain, but his numbers are too gaudy to ignore.
James Harden was the only other player to average at least 20 points, seven assists and two made three-pointers per game. Russell is now the second-youngest player to hit these benchmarks, behind a 21-year-old Allen Iverson. He will be handsomely rewarded for that flash.
Taking stock of Russell's best possible destinations rings a little hollow. Brooklyn can match any offer he receives, and although he's in line for a big-money deal, his market isn't shaping up to be especially robust. Few teams have both the cap space for a star and the type of backcourt void that warrants tying up said spending power in a 23-year-old who remains a quasi-unknown.
The Nets' yet-to-be-determined timeline allows for some speculation. Russell would mark their first near-max investment of the Sean Marks era—failed offer sheets to Allen Crabbe, Tyler Johnson and Otto Porter Jr. notwithstanding. They may not assume the match-whatever stance when they're still relatively far away from title contention.
Paying Russell becomes much easier if the Nets land another star or the market squeezes him into a team-friendly deal. But he should have just enough potential suitors to coax them into an expensive decision. (Emphasis on potential.)
Identifying Russell's top landing spots is a matter of plausibility and fit. We're taking squads with the potential flexibility and motivation to pay him and ranking them in order of increasing basketball sense. Let's get to it.
5. Phoenix Suns
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The Phoenix Suns are comfortable long shots in the Russell sweepstakes—mostly because they'll have to jump through so many hoops to afford him.
Carrying Kelly Oubre Jr.'s free-agent hold ($9.6 million) will leave them inside $5 million of the salary cap if they win the draft lottery. Renouncing him opens the door to $13 million to $15 million in space, but that won't be enough to get Russell's signature, let alone to scare the Nets.
Offloading other money is paramount. Sending Josh Jackson or TJ Warren into another team's cap space puts the Suns in Russell territory. Losing either one of them, along with Oubre, is a lot to give up, but Phoenix desperately needs another playmaker.
Russell can be that guy. He won't have any problem co-opting lead-guard responsibilities with Devin Booker, who happens to be one of his best friends.
More than 17 percent of Russell's attempts this past season came as spot-up threes, on which he shot 39.4 percent. Booker himself put down 37.6 percent of his catch-and-fire treys, and he should be begging for more of those looks after carrying Phoenix's offense on his own.
Other guards are equally intriguing off-ball fits, and most of them will come cheaper. But going for Russell is just as much about surviving Booker's breathers. The Suns' offensive rating plunged by a team-high 9.3 points per 100 possessions, and Russell ensures they'd never be without a viable lifeline.
These good-fit vibes start falling apart at the defensive end. Neither Booker nor Russell is a quality stopper. Both are disasters guarding players away from the ball, and Phoenix doesn't have the defensive firepower on the wings to cover up for them.
That shouldn't be a deal-breaker. Russell's offensive fit is too clean. Figuring out the salary-cap gymnastics is the larger concern—as is the Suns' draft position. Any prospective interest in Russell will dissipate if the Suns end up with Ja Morant or Darius Garland.
4. Dallas Mavericks
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Consider D'Angelo Russell a possible Plan B for the Dallas Mavericks. They have designs on wooing a big name this summer but are prioritizing pursuits of max-contract candidates Khris Middleton (player option) and Kemba Walker, according to the New York Times' Marc Stein.
Russell is a nice consolation target if the Mavericks strike out elsewhere. He's also easier to afford.
Maxes for Middleton and Walker will start at $32.7 million. Russell's begins at $27.3 million, and it shouldn't cost that much to pry him from the Nets. Something in the $20 million to $23 million range should be aggressive enough to get them thinking.
Saving $10 million means something to the Mavericks. Ferrying holds for restricted free agents Dorian Finney-Smith ($2.9 million), Maxi Kleber ($1.8 million) and Kristaps Porzingis ($17.1 million) leaves them with a little under $28 million to burn if they keep Ryan Broekhoff (non-guaranteed). That number will dip to $22.3 million or lower if they don't convey their top-five-protected pick to the Atlanta Hawks.
Making up the difference to afford Middleton or Walker isn't off the table. It won't take much if the Mavericks don't have their first-rounder, and they can explore Courtney Lee or, less likely, Tim Hardaway Jr. salary dumps if they do.
Chasing Russell is slightly less complicated—particularly when Walker is the most gettable of Dallas' two rumored targets. Russell doesn't have his speed, but they fit the same bill: another primary ball-handler who can create from scratch and run pick-and-pops for Porzingis while hitting enough standstill jumpers to preserve Luka Doncic's touches.
Paying what it'll take to poach Russell from Brooklyn is a steep investment when he's no sure thing. Walker's stardom is more established. But at 23, Russell is far more in line with the windows of a 20-year-old Doncic and soon-to-be 24-year-old Porzingis.
3. Indiana Pacers
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Contrary to many of their counterparts, the Indiana Pacers needn't take any drastic measures to afford Russell. They'll have to renounce most of their own free agents, but they can float Bojan Bogdanovic's cap hold ($13.7 million) and still have more than enough scratch to max out Brooklyn's breakout star.
Going that far isn't recommended. Offering Russell $27-plus million per year definitely puts the Nets on tilt, but if they decline, then, well, the Pacers are left paying Russell $27-plus million per year.
Still, Indiana does have the bandwidth to give him more than most.
Myles Turner and a healthy Victor Oladipo arm the Pacers with a nice defensive base no matter who else is starting in the backcourt, and covering up for Russell's half-court inattentiveness will only get easier if they bring back Cory Joseph or Thaddeus Young on cheaper deals.
Indiana will have to overpay for non-max free agents worth a damn anyway. Glamour markets usually have the inside track on the top consolation prizes. The Pacers can separate themselves with a borderline overbid—something in the $22 million range and up.
Shelling out that much on the open market isn't Indiana's style. Giving chase to a premier restricted free agent at all is out of character. But Oladipo needs another offensive safety valve by his side, and he isn't getting it from anyone already in place.
Bogdanovic is the closest Indy gets to that second lifeline, and he's best served as a third or fourth option. He was out of his depth for much of the 2018-19 campaign, and despite his stellar scoring numbers, the overbearing weight of that burden showed. The Pacers' half-court offense ranked 23rd in efficiency after Oladipo suffered a ruptured tendon in his right quad.
Russell helps neutralize Indy's lopsided banking order. He jump-started more pick-and-rolls this year than anyone except Kemba Walker while dropping in 34.9 percent of his pull-up threes, a solid number relative to his volume. And he routinely carried lineups for Brooklyn that featured neither Spencer Dinwiddie nor Caris LeVert and very little ball-handling overall.
2. Utah Jazz
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Anyone worried about taking the ball out of Donovan Mitchell's hands won't like Russell's fit with the Utah Jazz. Try to get past it.
Russell doesn't need to dominate the rock at every turn. He has spent extensive time running beside Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert, and the Nets offense hummed whenever he played in tandem with Shabazz Napier.
Displacing him from the ball for long stretches will be a transition, but it shouldn't be a headache. The Jazz are experts in using motion to create looks, and Russell averaged as many points per spot-up possession this season as Joe Ingles.
Signing him is worth the risk for his solo minutes alone. The Jazz offense underwhelmed without Mitchell on the floor, and they don't have a single high-volume pull-up shooter beyond him. Russell can fill those gaps. The Nets gave him the keys to the offense for almost all of 2018-19, and he averaged more pull-up jumpers per game (9.8) than Ingles, Kyle Korver and Ricky Rubio combined (8.9).
Carving out the cap space necessary to make a run at Russell is neither difficult nor without collateral damage. Waiving Derrick Favors and Raul Neto does the trick—and then some. They could also hope Russell costs noticeably less than the max and elect to waive Korver ($3.4 million partial guarantee) instead of Favors.
Counting on the cheaper scenario is a much riskier play. Restricted free agents are inherently difficult to poach in the first place, and the Jazz find themselves in the same boat as the Pacers. Players haven't yet started flocking to Utah, and it may take an over-the-top offer to both get Russell's attention and put Brooklyn in a bind.
If any team can justify footing a puffed-up price tag, it's the Jazz. They're on the fringes of the championship-contender discussion, don't have a single bad contract on the books, and Mitchell's next deal won't take effect until 2021-22. Russell is a high-variance gamble they can afford to make.
1. Brooklyn Nets
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Russell is not assured of a return to Brooklyn, and he knows it.
"Yeah. Hell yeah, I definitely want to be here," Russell said, per the New York Post's Brian Lewis. "But I also know it's a business, too. So I'm not going to play that role like I don't know what could possibly happen. Say somebody comes here that I have to be a part of [a move] to get them, I know that could be a possibility. So I just want to stay in this moment and not speak too soon about anything."
Dredging up two max-contract slots will cost the Nets Russell. On a related note: The Nets won't need two max slots.
Big-time free agents are expected to look at them, per SNY's Anthony Puccio, but the chances of them netting two big fish are slim to none. Landing one will be difficult enough, and the Nets can do that without getting rid of Russell.
They will grind out just over $30 million in room while floating Russell's cap hold ($21.1 million) if they renounce all other free agents and waive non-guaranteed salaries for Treveon Graham and Shabazz Napier. A smaller salary dump gets them Kawhi Leonard money, or they can grease the wheels of an Allen Crabbe trade to reach the Kevin Durant tier.
Whether the Nets even need to chisel out max money doesn't actually matter. They remain the best fit for Russell. Brooklyn is where he revived his career arc. He has the freedom to launch ridiculously difficult off-the-dribble threes, and head coach Kenny Atkinson even allows him to indulge his mid-range impulses.
There will be a limit to how far the Nets can go with Russell as their best player. That's where Caris LeVert and cap space come in. And we cannot rule out Russell getting better. He doesn't turn 24 until February. He's still a few years away from his peak.
Brooklyn cannot be negotiated into a straight overpay. Bad contracts are stark setbacks for non-contenders—for teams that aren't one player away. But short of Russell's ambiguous market yielding the max or an almost-max offer that doesn't seem to be out there, the notion of a divorce doesn't make much sense for either side.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference or Cleaning the Glass. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
