Klay Thompson, Steph Curry No-Shows vs. Rockets Only Part of Warriors Problems
Facing the Golden State Warriors is so often typecast as a losing battle. They are the NBA's foregone conclusion.
Even at their most vulnerable, they exist with an air of manifest destiny, this inalterable force that can be pushed and distracted, maybe even temporarily spooked, but not actually defeated. Benefit of the doubt was their inalienable right before Kevin Durant came along. It is something more presumptive now.
Or rather, it's supposed to be. The Houston Rockets are implying it's not after their 112-108 victory to level the second-round series at two games apiece.
That does not have to be the singular takeaway from the Warriors' Monday night loss. They played a thoroughly uninspiring game, essentially from start to finish, and were still in a position to open up that highly sought 3-1 series lead.
Close calls can be silver linings amid unremarkable performances. Klay Thompson was worse than absent in Game 4. He threw lazy passes and bit on pump fakes (including one from Iman Shumpert!), and his 5-of-15 dud felt more like an 0-of-15 lemon. He will play better. He will certainly shoot better:
Ditto for Stephen Curry. He kept probing the Rockets defense by ducking inside the arc, but his 4-of-14 three-point clip, which featured an open miss to tie the game at the buzzer, should not persist.
A lot is getting made about his struggles in this series. They are real. Curry is shooting 26.1 percent from deep. But it remains tough to worry about a player who entered Monday slashing 45/40/94 for the playoffs.
Fluctuation is part of the Curry experience, like it or not. He subsists on high-risk shots, and ceding offensive control to Durant for long stretches, if not entire games, only exacerbates that ingrained inconstancy:
It stands to reason, meanwhile, that aspects of the Rockets' comeback will cease.
Eric Gordon is pump-faking the Warriors defense into disorganized unrest. Austin Rivers is cutting hard and downing off-the-dribble jumpers. Houston is a plus-15 on the offensive glass over the past two games and a plus-15 overall during PJ Tucker's minutes.
Golden State is shooting 34.5 percent on uncontested treys—miles below its 40.1 percent mark in the regular season—and is a minus-78 for the series from beyond the arc. The bench is nonexistent.
Something will surely give, even if on the most basic level. James Harden is James Harden, but he's cooking everyone and anyone the Warriors put in front of him:
If nothing else, Houston should start to feel the squeeze of Chris Paul's own inconsistency. He's shooting 27.5 percent from distance in the playoffs and just 30 percent over the past two games.
And yet, to write off the Warriors' consecutive losses as mere instances of self-ruin and anomalies does a great disservice to the Rockets.
They are built specifically to take down Golden State and are not shy about copping to it. Their makeup has changed since last season, when they pushed the Warriors to seven games in the Western Conference Finals. The wing rotation is, without question, worse off for it. And whatever's left of Chris Paul is less than last year.
But the Rockets' philosophy has not wavered. Nor are they any less suited to indulge their stylistic leanings.
Harden needs to hit ridiculous shots for them to thrive. He's doing so. He's not having the most efficient series, but his step-back three remains one of the single most unstoppable plays in basketball. And he's shooting better than 45 percent on them against the Warriors.
Houston's astronomical three-point totals, another staple, have not needed to waver. Paul needs to knock down more of his opportunities, but Gordon (2-of-12 from deep in Game 4), Rivers (2-of-5) and Tucker (corner threes like whoa!) can all be depended upon for supplemental volume.
Over 56 percent of the Rockets' field-goal attempts came from behind the rainbow in Game 4. That frequency matters. Outside volume is the most efficient way to make up for talent deficits, and make no mistake, Houston faces exactly that against Golden State.
Winning minutes with Clint Capela on the floor has proved a chore, but the Rockets can get by even when they're not maximizing Nene's time off the bench. They used Capela to set more high screens and force switches that allowed their ball-handlers to attack in space or for the big man to fling bullets to open shooters while diving toward the rim in Game 4. He needs to be used more sparingly, but Houston was a plus-1 during his court time.
And in lieu of riding with Capela down the stretch, the Rockets have their mismatch-nightmare lineup. Head coach Mike D'Antoni has not hesitated to play Gordon, Harden, Paul and Rivers in tandem over the past two tilts, and his faith in that ball-handling quartet is paying off. They were a net minus during Game 4 but are in the green for the series:
Not nearly enough can be said about the Rockets' ability to dictate pace against every team, including the Warriors. Harden's touches can devolve into a slog, but this series is being played at a snail's gait—far slower than anything Golden State was used to during the regular season.
Ripping the Warriors out of their element is a victory. They still have Durant when things bog down, but they're most comfortable when they're freewheeling all over the place.
They enjoyed some of that breakneck improv in Game 4. Both teams played much faster in the first half. That worked for the Rockets because they were nailing threes and pushing the pace after Warriors misses. But the game slowed to a halt in the second half. That was by the Rockets' own design. They wanted to protect their lead.
It worked.
This doesn't prove they are going to win this series. The Warriors can, and probably will, come out of their "funk" or simply talent their way to an imperfect victory.
But their championship claim hangs in the balance, more so than even last season. Whether that's thanks to Houston or to Golden State's own demons, or whether the Warriors will even meet their maker between now and the NBA Finals, remains to be seen.
That it still needs to be seen is a deviation from the Durant-era Warriors' norm. They are just as talented, just as superstar-heavy, but their title defense feels different.
They feel less inevitable.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference or Cleaning the Glass. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
