Notre Dame Alive, But on Life Support for BCS

With their 40-14 win over Washington State Saturday, Notre Dame became bowl eligible in October for the first time since 2006.

Unfortunately, the Irish's strength of schedule rankings and computer numbers took a hit by playing maybe the worst team in a BCS conference. They also had key opponents lose, potentially eliminating Notre Dame from a BCS berth.

Thanks in part to the Big Ten implosion that has been in progress for a couple of years now, and USC continuing to struggle in the Pac-10, Notre Dame's pair of losses that once looked quite respectable are beginning to become suspect.

Michigan has returned to full-on freefall mode, losing to its last four FBS opponents by a combined 48 points. The Wolverines reached a painful low point Saturday in a 15 point loss to 1-6 Illinois.

Once ranked, Michigan has fallen to 1-4 in the Big Ten and will need to beet Purdue this weekend to ensure bowl eligibility.

The Big Ten in general has been brutal for Irish strength of schedule ratings.

Michigan State has a chance to finish its season in a bowl, with Western Michigan and Purdue left on its schedule, but that would mean only a 6-6 finish for a Sparty team that took the Irish to the wire.

Purdue must win out to gain bowl eligibility, and with both Michigan and Michigan State on the schedule, if the Boilermakers aren't home for the holidays, one of the other two Irish Big Ten opponents will be. An eight or nine loss season looks probable.

On the other side of the country, the Pac-10 is doing little to help the Irish as well.

The Trojans of Southern Cal continue to be a thorn in the Irish's side, suffering a blowout loss at Oregon. USC earlier dropped a game to Washington, whom Notre Dame beat, but is also in a bit of a free fall.

Since the overtime loss in South Bend, the Huskies have dropped two of three to Pac-10 foes and need to win three of four to gain bowl eligibility.

Of the teams that the Irish have faced, only USC and Boston College are ensured of having winning seasons and bowl berths.

Beating only one of the two "quality" opponents on the schedule, the road to a BCS Bowl game and a top 10 finish is without a doubt dark, bumpy, and difficult.

To gain an automatic bid, the Irish must finish the season ranked in the top eight by the BCS. They can receive an at large bid ranked in the top 12 (and most likely would).

Conference play around the country has been suspect. The Big Ten is very pedestrian. The Big East is Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and probably only one gets in. The ACC is down, with a probable Georgia Tech vs. Boston College title game deciding the lone BCS entry.

It seems that everyone but Texas in the Big 12 is basically taking the year off, and the Pac-10 remains hard to read because they performed so poorly out of conference (except USC) and all seem to be able to beat each other on any given day by 20-plus points (especially USC).

The only conference that deserves more than one slot is the SEC, who may send a trio of teams to the BCS.

If there were a year where the BCS could use Notre Dame as an at large bid, this is it.

Winning out could get them there.

Remaining on the Irish schedule this year are two teams already bowl-eligible in 6-3 Navy and No. 13 Pittsburgh, who is 7-1.

Stanford has a shot at eligibility, but at 5-3 the Cardinal will have to upset a ranked opponent as they finish against four straight in No. 8 Oregon, No. 12 USC, No. 20 Cal, and No. 22 Notre Dame.

Connecticut also has a shot, but they need a pair of wins, and they also finish with a tough stretch, with only Syracuse left unranked.

Beating No. 13 Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh (providing that they do not slip up this week at Syracuse) would perhaps provide the signature win that the Weis era has been searching for, as well as propel Notre Dame firmly into the BCS picture.

Also potentially helping the Irish cause is a long-forgotten opponent that has rallied to put together a respectable season.

The Nevada Wolfpack began a highly anticipated season with a thud. After being routed at Notre Dame 35-0 the Wolfpack went on to drop their next two contests. Since starting 0-3, Colin Kaepernick and company have run off five straight wins.

The offense is back in gear (and happy to be facing WAC defenses) now averaging 40 points a game, and could lead to an exciting finale on the Blue Turf at No. 7 Boise State.

At minimum, Nevada could amount to a quality win for the Irish, as they look sure to gain bowl eligibility. Should the Wolfpack somehow shock the Broncos, the computer ranking surge could push Notre Dame into the BCS.

That is, of course, only if Notre Dame takes care of business.

Navy, Connecticut, and Stanford are all quality teams that will not allow Notre Dame to play sloppy football and win. Each will test the Irish and force Notre Dame to beat them.

Notre Dame will have the talent advantage in each game, but as the Syracuse game last year and five straight last second finishes this year can attest, talent doesn't always dictate the outcome.

Notre Dame must play smart, disciplined football to contain the triple option of Navy to prevail in a contest that they should win.

Pittsburgh may indeed be the most important game for the Notre Dame program in decades. So much could be on the line—a BCS berth, recruits, respect—for both schools. It's everything you want out of college football in November.

Both Connecticut and Stanford are potential pitfall games, but in each a win by the underdog shouldn't be considered a massive upset.

Still the Irish have a chance to end this season with a flourish.

Since Duval Kumara's slip in the end zone to end the USC game, Notre Dame has responded well. Beating Boston College gave the Irish a rare win over a team with a winning record. Pounding Washington State may have been beating up on a bad team, but Notre Dame has struggled in doing what they should to lesser opponents.

Should the trend of Notre Dame playing at or near their potential continue, as well as the defense continuing to improve, finishing strong and winning out is not out of the question.

A Notre Dame team finishing 10-2 with wins over ACC Atlantic division leader Boston College, ranked Pittsburgh (maybe a BCS team itself), as well as five additional bowl-bound teams would almost certainly find itself in a BCS game.

A loss in the last four games will certainly end all possibility and all but ensure a Gator Bowl bid.