What Should These Tanking Teams Do If They Miss Out on Zion Williamson?
A number of franchises are tanking for standout Duke freshman Zion Williamson, but only one team will have the chance to select him at No. 1 in the 2019 NBA draft.
General managers must put together backup plans in case they don't win the lottery.
Duke's RJ Barrett and Murray State's Ja Morant have started to separate themselves from the pack and create a tier of their own behind Williamson. Teams can already begin thinking about their preferences between those two prospects, but they'll also need to prepare for bad luck and the possibility of falling outside the top three selections.
The six worst teams only have between a 9 and 14 percent chance of landing the top pick.
New York Knicks
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Call the New Orleans Pelicans
Even without Zion Williamson in the offer, the New York Knicks should still make a play for Anthony Davis.
Maybe the Pelicans also see RJ Barrett or Ja Morant as a future star. If New Orleans is hesitant about the Los Angeles Lakers' youngsters (or sending Davis to that franchise in general), it could be tempted by a package built around a top prospect and future first-round picks. The Knicks received two from the Dallas Mavericks in the Kristaps Porzingis deal, and they could also include some combination of Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, Dennis Smith Jr., Allonzo Trier and Frank Ntilikina.
Shop the Pick
The Knicks' last two lottery picks (Knox and Ntilikina) have struggled in New York without any established talent surrounding them. That's not an ideal setting for rookie development, and question marks have already emerged about Barrett (creating, shooting, decision-making), Morant (shooting, turnovers) and the team's plan to sign max free agents.
Instead of drafting one of the two—or a lower-rated prospect—and hoping for the best, New York should at least call around the league listening to offers. After New Orleans, the Washington Wizards could be the next team to contact. Though they've seemed adamant about holding onto Bradley Beal after John Wall's injury and the Otto Porter Jr. trade, they might listen if the Knicks make a compelling offer centered around young players and picks.
Best Player Available at No. 2
Averaging 23.2 points and 4.2 assists as an 18-year-old, Barrett comes off as the most rational backup plan to Williamson. He has the mentality to work as an alpha dog if the Knicks strike out in free agency. But ideally, they add star veterans and allow him to start slower as a secondary or tertiary option, just as Jayson Tatum did with the Boston Celtics.
Barrett's ability to play either wing position should also create flexibility when the Knicks do start putting the 2019-20 roster together this summer.
Settle for Morant
If Williamson and Barrett are off the board while the Knicks pick at No. 3, Morant would be the best remaining prospect. He's in the same tier as Barrett, but a Morant-Smith backcourt lacks size, shooting and defense.
On the other hand, Morant's upside appears greater than Smith's—and that of anyone left on the board. At this juncture, the goal is to stockpile assets and sort them out later. The draft's most explosive guard is averaging 24.1 points while leading the nation in assists, as he can carve up defenses with drives and high-level passes.
Taking Morant may eventually lead the Knicks to explore trade opportunities for Smith, but that won't be a problem they worry about until the roster is complete.
Best Player Available Outside the Top 3
If New York finishes with the NBA's worst record and receives the No. 4 or No. 5 pick (that's as far as they could fall), Barrett and Morant will likely be off the board. That would be an unfortunate outcome for the front office, which would then look at Duke's Cam Reddish, Virginia's De'Andre Hunter and Texas Tech's Jarrett Culver.
A way-too-early guess would have the Knicks favoring Reddish, based on their history of drafting youthful upside.
Phoenix Suns
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Shop the Pick for a Veteran
At this stage of the Phoenix Suns' rebuild, do they need another rookie?
Even as Devin Booker averages 24.9 points and Deandre Ayton looks like the player they expected after selecting him with last draft's top pick, they're still ranked No. 27 in offensive efficiency and No. 29 in defense efficiency, per ESPN. If they can't win the lottery, they should look to shop their pick in search of an established player capable of pushing them up the standings.
Target Ja Morant
Unless the Suns feel RJ Barrett is the obvious No. 2 prospect behind Zion Williamson, Ja Morant would be the sensible target because of his playmaking potential.
Only one college guard in the last 27 years (Baylor's Nelson Haggerty in 1994-95) has finished a season averaging more than 10 assists, per Basketball-Reference. Morant is currently dishing out 10.3 dimes per game, routinely putting on clinics that highlight his vision and timely passing with both hands. He'd take pressure off Booker—one of the league's elite scorers who's had to double as the team's primary distributor in 2018-19.
Morant can also add scoring firepower of his own (24.1 PPG). And though his jump shot is concerning for a top-three pick, his gradual improvement remains encouraging. He's up to 1.7 made threes per game at an acceptable 34 percent clip while converting 81.2 percent of his 8.1 free-throw attempts per contest.
Settle on RJ Barrett
If Williamson is gone, coming away with Barrett could still be a win for Phoenix, particularly given Josh Jackson's struggles and Mikal Bridges' scoring limitations. He'd bring a similar skill set as TJ Warren, but with more point-producing upside and playmaking ability both as a pick-and-roll passer and drive-and-dish setup man.
Other prospects may fill bigger needs, but Phoenix should still focus on drafting the best player available.
Best Player Available or Explore Trading Down
Bad luck could push the Suns into the Nos. 4-6 range.
In that scenario, they could look at prospects with defensive promise—specifically Cam Reddish and De'Andre Hunter. They may also be compelled to add a scoring point guard in Vanderbilt's Darius Garland. However, that fit would be questionable, based on his limited playmaking and defensive potential.
Reddish or Hunter would make for a more sensible coin flip.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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RJ Barrett
The Cleveland Cavaliers must build from the ground up, and this upcoming draft should kick off the process. They'll look to identify the best player available, regardless of position.
Barrett matches the description at this point, standing 6'7" with three-level scoring ability and the mentality necessary to be a No. 1 option. Dating back to a Feb. 20 loss to North Carolina when Zion Williamson went down with a knee injury in the opening minutes, Barrett has averaged 26.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists while shooting above 47 percent from the field in four of five games.
The Cavaliers need a new young player to groom as their future leader. And unless they can trade their pick for one, Barrett would remain their best hope.
Ja Morant
If Barrett is gone or the Cavaliers question his shooting, decision-making and defense, Morant would be next in line.
Current rookie point guard Collin Sexton is an exciting scorer, but he's not the guard to whom Cleveland should hand over the keys to its offense. Morant is already the superior passer and playmaker. While his explosiveness and firepower fuel his perceived upside and stretch imaginations, he'll be valued most for his ability to create high-percentage shots for teammates in both transition and half-court sets.
Best Player Available
With close to a blank-canvas roster, position and fit shouldn't matter to Cleveland.
Cam Reddish, De'Andre Hunter and Jarrett Culver are names to consider just beyond the top three picks. Texas' Jaxson Hayes could also be an option because of his rim protection and athleticism at center. Oregon's Bol Bol would be the ultimate risk-reward play, depending on what medical reports reveal about his fractured foot.
Chicago Bulls
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Ja Morant versus RJ Barrett
The Chicago Bulls are in an interesting position after acquiring Otto Porter Jr., who may have taken the franchise from rebuilding to competing. They're 7-5 since acquiring him (7-3 with the small forward in the lineup), and the roster now has cornerstones at positions 2 through 5 with Zach LaVine, Porter, Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr.
They now have to ask whether they want to upgrade at point guard by drafting Morant, who'd likely supplant Kris Dunn, or opt for Barrett and accept using a top pick on a backup. Playing him with the other four centerpieces would mean operating without a true point guard.
It does seem close enough for the Bulls to consider the fits.
Chicago ranks No. 27 in assists per game and already has high-level scorers in LaVine and Markkanen. Morant, the NCAA assist leader, would give the Windy City a setup man to help optimize all the talent already in the starting lineup. But if he and Williamson go before the Bulls are on the clock, the decision to take Barrett would still be quick and painless.
Best Player Available or Trade
Once we get to No. 4, no potential stars jump out.
In that scenario, the Bulls could play it safe by taking the best player available, whether it's Cam Reddish, De'Andre Hunter or Jarrett Culver. They could also see Darius Garland in that mix and favor his fit at point guard.
If none of those options stand out, they could look to trade down—or out of the draft entirely—in hope of landing either multiple picks or an established player. The Boston Celtics, for example, could have three first-round selections to dangle.
Atlanta Hawks
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Explore Packaging Picks
Owners of the Dallas Mavericks' first-rounder (top-five protected) after last year's Trae Young-Luka Doncic exchange, the Atlanta Hawks may be making multiple selections in the top 10. Should they? That depends on where the two picks fall and what they could get by packaging them together.
If they're up at Nos. 5 and 7, which is where today's odds place them, the Hawks could offer a package to trade up for RJ Barrett. They could also check the availability of any stars from rebuilding teams or keep one of the two selections and deal the other for a starter.
RJ Barrett
Based on its current record, Atlanta will need lottery luck for a shot at Barrett—a top-three lock.
He'd fit the lineup, able to play positions 2-4, and give the Hawks a go-to scorer between Young and John Collins. Tied for sixth in the country in transition points, per Synergy Sports, Barrett would also benefit from Young's uptempo style and Atlanta's league-high pace.
At No. 3 Pick or Later: Pass on Ja Morant and Field Calls
With Young running the show, Morant wouldn't fit in Atlanta. Both players need the ball, and neither shine defensively.
If the Hawks land the No. 3 pick with Zion Williamson and Barrett off the board, they'll likely receive calls from teams looking for point guards and eager to jump into the Morant sweepstakes. Atlanta could try to move back or simply take the best player available.
We have Cam Reddish, Jarrett Culver and De'Andre Hunter ranked in the Nos. 4-6 range, and each would fit in Atlanta's lineup. Their versatility and positional interchangeability would mesh with the current core, specifically wing/forwards Kevin Huerter and Taurean Prince.
Memphis Grizzlies
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Shop Mike Conley
The Memphis Grizzlies acknowledged their need to rebuild when they traded Marc Gasol at the deadline. But they also held onto Mike Conley, realizing they'll have time to explore more deals before and during the draft.
Memphis should look to acquire young talent and/or picks. The Orlando Magic would be an interesting trade partner, given their need for a point guard, overflow of forwards/bigs and a first-round pick that will likely fall either late in the lottery or in the middle of the first round.
RJ Barrett
With Zion Williamson off the board, Barrett is an obvious target for both his NBA potential and fit in Memphis. He'd give the rebuild a scoring wing and initiator next to Jaren Jackson Jr.
Unless they decide Ja Morant is the superior prospect in a vacuum, the Grizzlies should lock in on Barrett with the No. 2 pick.
Best Player Available
They won't be taking need into account during the draft. Their only need is the best player available, even if he's a point guard and Conley remains on the roster.
After Williamson and Barrett, Morant pops as the next most exciting prospect for his extreme athleticism, downhill scoring and elite playmaking. But if Memphis is picking outside the top three (currently projected at No. 6), Cam Reddish, Jarrett Culver and De'Andre Hunter will warrant looks.
Reddish could ultimately be the most attractive option, based on his shot-making, defensive potential and room for improvement. Hunter looks like the safest option for his physicality, consistent shooting and established defensive tools and awareness.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports and Basketball Reference and are current as of March 8.
