Is Florida Beating The Odds In The Officiating Area?

The odds of being struck by lightning are 700,000 to one (National Weather Service). The odds of winning the Mega Millions lottery are 135,145,920 to one (MSN Money). 

What are the odds that one college football team is the beneficiary of game-changing officiating gaffes in three consecutive games?  

To consider this question, three critical calls made in games involving Florida during the last three weeks are reviewed.

The first is an uncalled offensive pass interference penalty. This happened with 0:50 to go in the first half of the Florida-LSU game on October 10th with the score tied 3-3.

The replay appears to show a Florida receiver grabbing the jersey of an LSU defender. This jersey tug appears to slow the defender and allows the receiver to separate from the defender by 10 yards. The result was a touchdown and a 10-3 lead for Florida. This was a game changing non-call.

The second was in the Arkansas/Florida game on October 17th. Actually, there were two unfortunate calls against Arkansas on one critical Florida drive. One call was so conspicuously bad that the officiating crew was suspended by the SEC. 

Here’s how it came down.

With Arkansas leading 20-13 late in the fourth quarter, a pass interference call gave Florida a first down on the Arkansas 21. Viewing the replay, the TV announcers could not detect a pass interference happening.

On the very next play, a personal foul penalty (which is the call that got this officiating crew suspended) gave Florida a 1st-and-goal at the Arkansas 10. Florida scored on the next play to tie the game and went on to a 23-20 victory. These were game changing calls.

The third occurred in the Florida/Mississippi State game on October 24th. This call was criticized by MSU coach Dan Mullen; he was reprimanded by the SEC for his comments.

The situation was this: Florida led 22-13 with 9:01 remaining in the game. A Florida defender intercepted a pass and returned it for a touchdown, but was it a touchdown?

Several replay angles were shown and one seemed to show an Arkansas player stripping the ball from the Florida player just before he crossed the goal line. It is easy to understand how the on-field official missed the call at game speed. It is hard to understand how the replay official missed it.

Mark Bradley, of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution , puts it this way: 

“The ball appeared to have been stripped from Florida’s Dustin Doe before he crossed Mississippi State’s goal line with his interception. The replay official should have righted what the field officials failed to catch, but he didn’t. In my mind, that’s the worst of all the missed calls—one that was apparent after review, but left in error.” 

That was a game changing decision.

In three straight close games over three consecutive weeks, Florida seems to have benefited from questionable officiating decisions. Now, Florida may have won these games anyway, but the kids on the opposing teams and the fans who watch deserve better.

What are the odds of this string of unfortunate calls and no-calls happening in favor of one specific team? An Internet search did not reveal any published odds in this area.

It also did not identify any fans that had been struck by lightning while attending a Florida football game. Readers can look at the sequence of events and decide for themselves.