Two of the league's best teams will meet Wednesday for the second time in as many weeks in a possible NBA Finals preview when the Golden State Warriors (19-9) host the Toronto Raptors (21-7) as home favorites at sportsbooks.
The Raptors edged the Warriors 131-128 in overtime but failed to cover the spread as 9.5-point home favorites in the last meeting on November 29. Golden State played without Stephen Curry.
NBA point spread: The Warriors opened as 5.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 112.2-109.1, Warriors (NBA picks on every game)
Why the Raptors can cover the spread
Toronto ended an eight-game series losing streak with a victory in the most recent meeting, and the team is still 4-2-1 against the spread in the previous seven games between the teams.
The Raptors had lost the prior two meetings with the Warriors by a combined seven points but covered both games before breaking through with the big win behind 37 points from Kawhi Leonard and a career-high 26 from Pascal Siakam.
They are also coming off a 123-99 rout of the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday without Leonard, who was nursing a hip injury.
Why the Warriors can cover the spread
Having Curry back in the lineup is obviously a huge advantage for Golden State in this spot back at home for just the second time this month.
The Warriors saw the 30-year-old return from a groin injury after losing at Toronto, and they are 4-1 since then, reeling off four consecutive wins with him averaging 31.4 points per game during that stretch.
Not to mention, Kevin Durant scored a season-high 51 points in the last meeting without Curry, almost single-handedly bringing Golden State back in regulation to force OT.
The combination of Durant and Curry continues to make this team strong title contenders.
Smart betting pick
The status of Leonard should be monitored closely before wagering on this game, as he can make a huge impact for Toronto both offensively and defensively.
While the Raptors did not need him in blowing out the Clippers on the road, visiting the Warriors is a much bigger challenge.
That said, they are a perfect 7-0 straight up and ATS the last seven times they have played the second game of a back-to-back situation, so roll the dice and keep riding that trend with solid value on the road underdogs to cover.
NBA betting trends
The total has gone under in five of Toronto's last six games.
Golden State is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games.
Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games at home.
All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.