
Heisman Watch 2018: Odds and Predictions for All Candidates in Award Race
Signal-callers ruled the 2018 college football season, so it's appropriately a quarterbacks-only club heading to New York for Saturday's Heisman Trophy ceremony.
College Football Playoff participants Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) and Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) are Big Apple-bound, along with FBS passing leader Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State).
There isn't an overwhelming favorite in this field. OddsShark has Murray at the driver's seat at -190, but Tagovailoa is right behind at +150. Haskins is in the rearview at -6000, which feels wild when no one has thrown for more yards (4,580) or touchdowns (47).
Let's break down all their accomplishments, before crowning our unofficial winner.
Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
While Haskins' Buckeyes had a few slip-ups this season, it's hard to pin any of the blame on their record-setting quarterback.
"[Haskins] broke 11 Big Ten and Ohio State single-season records," Mitch Stacy wrote for the Associated Press. "He's tied for 10th all time for passing touchdowns in a single season in NCAA history. He was Big Ten offensive player of the year and MVP of the conference championship game."
While most Heisman candidates have a Heisman moment, Haskins arguably had several. He threw at least five touchdowns in five different games and had another contest with three scores through the air and three more on the ground.
But if you were going to boil his candidacy down to a single performance, it would be tough to choose anything other than the 396 yards and six touchdowns (with no interceptions) he put on the Michigan Wolverines.
That doesn't change the fact he's likely the third wheel in a three-player race for the trophy, but the redshirt sophomore earned his spot as a finalist.
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Most professional gamers don't dominate the way Tagovailoa and the Crimson Tide did this season.
His sprint through the regular season was absurd. The Tide won all their games by at least 22 points, and their quarterback totaled 36 touchdowns against just two interceptions.
While he sits second among qualified passers (to Murray) in quarterback rating (202.3), the gap between him and No. 3 (Georgia's Jake Fromm, 175.8) is as wide as the one between Nos. 3 and 30 (Hawaii's Cole McDonald, 149.3).
Tagovailoa's game log is packed with monster efforts, but his biggest outing came against Alabama's rival Auburn, when he torched the Tigers for 324 passing yards (on 78.1 percent passing) and six total touchdowns.
Tagovailoa is the best offensive player for the nation's best team. That could be enough to sway most voters.
His problem is the only stain on his resume came in his most recent outing. Facing Georgia in the SEC championship, he completed a season-low 40 percent of his passes, threw a season-high two interceptions and managed only one touchdown before exiting with an ankle injury. If not for Jalen Hurts' performance in relief, Alabama could have easily lost its unblemished record.
Granted, even the world's best players struggle every now and then, and one can argue Tagovailoa had done enough to cushion himself against a setback. But the fact it's so fresh on voters' minds—and occurred on such a massive stage—may be the reason he doesn't take the trophy back with him to Tuscaloosa.
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Are we sure baseball is the best path for Murray to pursue?
He might be otherworldly on the diamond—he was this summer's No. 9 pick after all—but he's great on the gridiron, too.
He just engineered the most efficient season we've ever seen from a quarterback, posting a 205.7 rating while wowing in every possible fashion. His average pass attempt was an 11.9-yard completion. His 4,053 passing yards were bolstered by a 70.9 completion percentage (second-best among qualified quarterbacks). His seven interceptions were more than offset by his 40 scoring strikes.
Oh, and he ran it 123 times for 892 yards and another 11 touchdowns.
Want to know how magical Murray has been? Just ask the Baylor Bears, who helplessly watched him turn 21 passing attempts into 17 completions for 432 yards and six touchdowns and scramble for 45 yards and a score.
Unbelievable as they are, Murray's stats aren't enough to secure this win. Not with a field this strong.
But there are two reasons he's been elevated to becoming the favorite.
For starters, his championship week effort saw him avenge a loss to the Texas Longhorns, whom he shredded for 25-of-34 passing for 379 yards and three touchdowns against zero picks.
Perhaps his best argument against Tagovailoa, though, is value to the team. The Crimson Tide have NFL talent up and down their roster. They just proved they can beat a national power without him. Replace Tagovailoa with a good quarterback, and this is still a playoff participant—maybe even still an undefeated one.
Take Murray off the Sooners, however, and the playoffs are likely nothing more than a pipe dream. It took a rare kind of talent to win big with the nation's 96th-ranked scoring defense, and Murray was up to the task.
With both the AP's Player of the Year and Davey O'Brien awards under his belt, Murray looks primed to add to his growing trophy collection Saturday night.
Predicted Winner: Kyler Murray
Statistics used courtesy of ESPN.com.
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