
Bowl Predictions 2018: Projections and Odds for CFP Final and Top Matchups
Now it's Oklahoma's turn.
The Sooners (12-1) were the winners in the "Who's No. 4" quiz provided by the College Football Playoff committee, and that means they are in the national semifinals.
Their reward is an opportunity to take the field and compete against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Alabama rallied from a 14-point second-half deficit to beat Georgia 35-28 in the SEC title game Saturday. The Crimson Tide (13-0) had beaten all of their previous opponents by at least 22 points, and they showed the ability to come from behind in the conference championship game.
The Crimson Tide and Sooners will meet in the Orange Bowl Dec. 29, and the game is scheduled for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff.
The other semifinal will see the second-ranked Clemson Tigers meeting No. 3 Notre Dame. Clemson (13-0) defeated Pittsburgh 42-10 in the ACC Championship Game Saturday, and the Tigers bring a perfect record into this game. The same holds for Notre Dame (12-0), as the Fighting Irish completed their regular-season schedule last week with a road victory at USC.
Those two teams will meet in the Cotton Bowl. That game is also Dec. 29 and scheduled for 4 p.m. ET. The winners of the two CFP games will meet for the national championship at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, Jan. 7.
The Sooners got the edge over Georgia (11-2) and Ohio State (12-1), which finished as the No. 5 and 6 teams, respectively, in the CFP rankings following the conference championship games.
Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State, and UCF (12-0) were all in contention for the No. 4 slot in the College Football Playoff. In the end, the CFP committee was most impressed with Oklahoma's accomplishments, which included a 39-27 victory over Texas in the Big 12 title game.
Texas (9-4) had delivered the lone loss on Oklahoma's resume during the regular season, and since the Sooners were able to get revenge in the conference title game, it meant that Oklahoma had defeated every team on its schedule.
Oklahoma is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation, as the Sooners are averaging 49.5 points per game. They average 324.0 passing yards per game and 253.9 rushing yards per outing.
The Alabama-Oklahoma game will feature two of the best quarterbacks in the nation in the Crimson Tide's Tua Tagovailoa against the Sooners' Kyler Murray. Both quarterbacks are legitimate Heisman Trophy contenders and will bring quite a bit of glamour to the semifinal matchup.
Tagovailoa had to come out of the SEC title game because of an ankle injury, but head coach Nick Saban said on ESPN the injury is not likely to have an impact once the Crimson Tide start practicing for the matchup with Oklahoma. Saban called it a two-week injury (h/t Brad Crawford of BamaOnLine).
The Fighting Irish are making their first appearance in the College Football Playoff. Head coach Brian Kelly's team defeated Michigan, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Northwestern and Syracuse during the regular season.
Quarterback Ian Book leads an offense that has averaged 33.8 points per game, while the Notre Dame defense has been stingy and gives up just 17.3 points per game.
Clemson has become one of the elite college football programs, along with Alabama. Head coach Dabo Swinney's team has one of the best one-two punches in the nation with quarterback Trevor Lawrence (24-4 TD-interception ratio) and running back Travis Etienne (1,463 rushing yards, 8.3 yards per carry and 21 touchdowns).
The Tigers average 45.4 points per game and give up 13.7 points per outing.
Alabama is a 14-point favorite over Oklahoma, while Clemson is a 12-point choice to beat Notre Dame, according to OddsShark. The Crimson Tide is a prohibitive -250 favorite to win the national championship, followed by Clemson at +340, while Notre Dame and Oklahoma are +1400.
Those wagering on Alabama must risk $250 to win $100, while a $100 bet on the Tigers, Fighting Irish or Sooners would return $340 (Clemson) or $1,400 (Notre Dame or Oklahoma).
Here's a look at the CFP rankings following the conference championship games:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Michigan
8. UCF
9. Washington
10. Florida
11. LSU
12. Penn State
13. Washington State
14. Kentucky
15. Texas
16. West Virginia
17. Utah
18. Mississippi State
19. Texas A&M
20. Syracuse
21. Fresno State
22. Northwestern
23. Missouri
24. Iowa State
25. Boise State
The New Year's Six bowl games are also set, as well as many of the other bowl games.
Florida and Michigan will meet at noon ET in the Peach Bowl Dec. 29, while LSU will take on undefeated UCF in the Fiesta Bowl at 1 p.m. ET on New Year's Day.
The Rose Bowl will feature the traditional matchup between the Big Ten and Pac-12, as Ohio State will take on Washington, and Texas faces Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Both the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will be played Jan. 1. The Rose Bowl kicks off at 5 p.m. ET, while Texas and Georgia get underway at 8:45 p.m. ET.
The Gators and Wolverines are likely to feature two strong defensive teams, and Michigan may be motivated to bounce back after allowing 62 points to Ohio State in the regular-season finale.
UCF is likely to be an angry team when it takes the field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, since the Knights have been undefeated the past two seasons and have not been a part of the College Football Playoff. The Knights have the added motivation of playing for injured quarterback McKenzie Milton, who is out of the lineup after suffering a devastating leg injury.
Ohio State is coming off two sensational offensive performances against Michigan and Northwestern, but the Buckeyes will get tested by Washington's hard-hitting defense. Buckeyes quarterback Dwayne Haskins is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate.
Georgia had Alabama on the ropes into the fourth quarter of the SEC title game, but the Dawgs let that game slip away. Texas dropped the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma because it could not contain the Sooners offense in the second half.
Predictions
While the odds indicate that Alabama and Clemson are on a collision course for the CFP Championship Game, don't dismiss Notre Dame.
The Irish are a tough and resilient team that has passed every test. Book is somewhat underrated, and he is capable of going on a hot streak. Look for Notre Dame to battle on even terms throughout the game, and Book will make the plays in the final minutes to give Notre Dame the win and the cover.
Oklahoma has the assignment it wanted in getting into the playoff, and now comes the hard part. How will the Sooners slow down the Alabama attack? Whether Tagoavailoa is in the lineup or Saban has to turn to backup Jalen Hurts, the Crimson Tide are just too explosive.
On the other hand, Alabama will be capable of slowing down Murray and the Oklahoma offense from time to time. The second half belongs to Alabama as the Crimson Tide win and cover.
New Year's Six Bowl predictions
Cotton Bowl, national semifinal: Notre Dame (+12) over Clemson
Orange Bowl, national semifinal: Alabama (-14) over Oklahoma
Peach Bowl: Michigan over Florida
Fiesta Bowl: UCF over LSU
Rose Bowl: Ohio State over Washington
Sugar Bowl: Georgia over Texas
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