Bowl Projections 2018: Predictions for Top Teams Ahead of Final CFP Poll Reveal
Saturday's results finished up as expected, with Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State wrapping up conference titles. The way those games played out, however, could factor significantly into the playoff committee's decisions Sunday morning.
Undefeated Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame are safely in the playoff, but the No. 4 slot is up for grabs. Two of the contenders, Oklahoma and Ohio State, won Saturday. The third potential contender, Georgia, took Alabama down to the wire before falling 35-28.
With three teams vying for one spot, the committee members will have their hands full.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The final College Football Playoff rankings will be released Sunday at noon on ESPN. Here's a look at how the playoffs and other New Year's Six Bowls could end up.
College Football Playoff Projections
Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
The easiest way to start the debate between Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State is to eliminate one team—and Ohio State is the easiest team to remove from the conversation. The Buckeyes entered Saturday's action as the lowest-ranked team in the group (No. 6), played the lowest-ranked opponent (No. 21 Northwestern), and were the only contender to lose to an unranked opponent (Purdue).
That brings the debate down to Oklahoma and Georgia.
On the surface, Georgia's two losses might eliminate them from the conversation as well—and that is definitely the most likely result. But a closer comparison of Oklahoma and Georgia's resumes indicates that the committee should have a lengthy discussion on this topic.
Assuming Texas drops a few spots after losing to Oklahoma, Georgia will have played four teams ranked higher than anyone on Oklahoma's schedule (Alabama, Florida, LSU and Kentucky), going 2-2 in those games. That includes three teams (Alabama, Florida, LSU) ranked in the committee's top 10.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma played just two teams ranked in the committee's top 20, going 1-1 against Texas and 1-0 versus West Virginia.
So while Georgia does have one more loss than Oklahoma, the Bulldogs played an indisputably more difficult schedule.
The committee isn't required to pick a conference champion, and it isn't forced to chose the teams with the best records. So if enough committee members believe Georgia is the better football team, we could end up with our first two-loss, non-conference champion in the playoff.
Other New Year's Six Bowl Projections
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Washington
Fiesta Bowl: LSU vs. UCF
Peach Bowl: Florida vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia
The committee's decision at No. 4 will have a ripple effect on the rest of the New Year's Six bowls, most notably the Sugar Bowl.
The Big 12 champion is required to be slotted into the Sugar Bowl unless it advanced to the playoff, in which case the runner-up takes its place. This means that four-loss Texas is still alive for the Sugar Bowl, where it would face Georgia.
If Georgia lands at No. 4, that means another SEC team has to replace the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl—likely Florida, as the next-highest-ranked SEC school—where it would face the Big 12 winner, Oklahoma.
The Rose Bowl scenario is the easiest of the bunch, with Washington already locked in as the Pac-12 champion and Ohio State also heading to Pasadena as the Big 10 champ, unless it receives an unlikely invite to the playoff.
The Fiesta and Peach Bowls both receive two at-large teams, one of which will be undefeated UCF, the highest-ranked conference champion from the Group of Five. Based on the most recent rankings, it appears likely that UCF will meet up with LSU. However, it's worth mentioning that an in-state showdown between UCF and Florida would create enticing storylines.
Regardless of how it all plays out Sunday, there will be plenty to discuss in the weeks leading up to another exciting bowl season.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
