Since becoming conference divisional rivals six years ago, Florida and Missouri have split six meetings straight up, but the Tigers gashed the Gators last season and own a 4-2 edge against the spread. Who's the smart bet for this SEC East bash on Saturday afternoon at the Swamp?
College football point spread: The Gators opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.0-26.6 Gators (College football picks on every game)
Why the Missouri Tigers can cover the spread
Missouri is hoping to bounce back this week following an excruciating 15-14 loss at home to Kentucky last week. The Tigers actually led that game 14-3 well into the fourth quarter but then gave up a 67-yard punt return for a touchdown. Missouri then had a chance to run out the clock but came up empty on a short third-down conversion. In the end, the Tigers got called for a pass interference call as the clock ran out and lost on a Wildcats touchdown.
Missouri gained 209 yards of offense and made 13 first downs in the first half, but gained just 40 yards and made zero first downs in the second half. Meanwhile, the Tigers held Kentucky to 91 yards rushing on 35 attempts, just 3-of-17 on third-down and fourth-down conversions and without a touchdown through the first 60 minutes of the game. They just came up one play short.
Two weeks ago, Missouri racked up 646 yards of offense in a 65-33 victory over Memphis. At 4-4 overall, the Tigers still need a couple of wins to become bowl-eligible.
Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread
Florida is also looking to bounce back this week after falling to Georgia at the Cocktail Party last week 36-17. The Gators spotted the Bulldogs the first 10 points of the game but battled back to take a 14-13 lead early in the third quarter. Florida still only trailed 23-17 with under 12 minutes to go, but a pair of late Georgia touchdowns created a slightly misleading final score.
What really hurt the Gators last week was Georgia's 8-of-14 performance on third-down conversions and losing the turnover battle 3-0, which created a minus-10 point differential.
Prior to last week, Florida had won and covered five games in a row, including that 27-19 victory over an LSU team that's now rated No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Smart betting pick
Missouri won this matchup last season 45-16 in Columbia. However, it's difficult to say the Tigers are any better now than they were that day, with four losses in their last five games, while the Gators are undoubtedly improved. Smart money here favors Florida.
College football betting trends
Florida is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home.
Florida is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games vs. its conference.
Missouri is 0-4 ATS in its last four games on the road.
All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.