Bleacher Report Expert Predictions for Week 10 in College Football
Week 10 of the 2018 college football season is going to be lit, turnt or whatever word the kids are using these days to convey indescribable greatness.
In the SEC alone, there are two battles between teams in the top nine of the College Football Playoff rankings, as No. 1 Alabama travels to No. 3 LSU and No. 9 Kentucky welcomes No. 6 Georgia to Lexington.
There's also a massive clash in the Big Ten with No. 5 Michigan needing a home win over No. 14 Penn State. And in the Big 12, it will be No. 13 West Virginia at No. 17 Texas to potentially determine who faces No. 7 Oklahoma in the conference championship.
There's also 1-8 UTEP at 0-8 Rice, but we couldn't quite find space to ask our college football experts about that barnburner.
The experts—Matt Hayes, David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Brad Shepard and Ian Wharton—have once again offered up predictions on some of the hardest-hitting questions of the week, including:
- Who wins each of the four aforementioned slugfests?
- What's the biggest upset of the week?
- Can Gardner Minshew II crack the code of California's defense?
- And will high-scoring Houston or high-scoring Oklahoma put up more points against a bad defense this week?
Our experts are on the case.
Who Are You Taking in the Game of the Year (So Far): No. 1 Alabama or No. 3 LSU?
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Matt Hayes (Twitter: @MattHayesCFB)
I don't see how anyone could pick against the Crimson Tide. They're just so efficient on offense and have so many weapons. All the hype is about Tua Tagovailoa, and it makes you forget this team has four legitimate NFL-caliber receivers, four legitimate NFL-caliber running backs and the best offensive line in the SEC. A wild atmosphere in Baton Rouge will help LSU early, but Alabama will figure it out. It won't be pretty in the second half.
David Kenyon (Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR)
Paraphrasing a lovely quote from Purdue coach Jeff Brohm's XFL career, let me answer that question by asking you two questions. One, is this or is this not Alabama? Yes, it is. Two, does Tagovailoa or does he not currently have a pulse? Yes, he does. I'm not picking against that guy during the regular season. Let's play football.
Adam Kramer (Twitter: @KegsnEggs)
I'll take Alabama. I do so confidently, but I will not go into this game feeling that Nick Saban's team is a lock—no matter how unbelievable that two-touchdown point spread in Baton Rouge still feels.
Alabama might cover the number. The week off for Tagovailoa couldn't have come at a better time, considering the way his knee had been bothering him. The offense will be healthy and rested, and it should find plenty of success against LSU, despite the Tigers' fair share of NFL-bound players on defense.
But here's the matchup I'm most curious to see: Joe Burrow versus an Alabama defense that is, by its own ridiculous standards, not as brick wall-ish as it normally is. If Burrow can find success, LSU has a shot. But I still think Tagovailoa will overwhelm.
Kerry Miller (Twitter: @kerrancejames)
I've got mad respect for the job Ed Orgeron has done with this LSU team. I know the Tigers are always near the top of the recruiting rankings and should be great every year, but to lose so much from last season and actually get better is incredible. This is—without a close runner-up—the biggest test Alabama will face until (at least) the SEC Championship Game.
Is that good? Have I said enough nice things about LSU to make the prediction now? OK, cool. Bama wins by three touchdowns. The last time a game in this rivalry was decided by more than three touchdowns, Saban was coaching for LSU. But Alabama's run defense is better than LSU's—especially with LSU linebacker Devin White suspended for the first half of this game—and there's just no chance in hell that Burrow is going to outplay Tagovailoa.
Brad Shepard (Twitter: @Brad_Shepard)
I feel like anybody who takes LSU in this game is just fooling themselves. Alabama is on the greatest run of college football ever, and this may be the best version yet. Take everything Saban is known for (defense, discipline and running game) and add a transcendent quarterback in Tagovailoa—it's unfair. All that to say this: LSU isn't beating Alabama. The Tide are favored by a pair of touchdowns in this game, and they'll cover with ease.
Ian Wharton (Twitter: @NFLFilmStudy)
I have to take Alabama. LSU is by far the Tide's best challenger thus far and is one of the top-ranked teams in the nation for good reason. Alabama's defense is young and has given up more explosive plays than usual for a Saban-coached team. If LSU can be the first team to really pressure Tagovailoa and he proves to be human, the Tigers could win. But that's just not something we've seen thus far.
Will Kentucky Shock the World by Upsetting Georgia, Thus Winning the SEC East?
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Matt Hayes
As much as I'd love to see it—not because I hate the Dawgs, but because UK in the SEC Championship Game would be refreshing—I don't see how Kentucky can score enough points to win. The Wildcats defense is terrific and will keep Kentucky in the game into the second half. But I can't see them winning the game unless QB Terry Wilson can do something in the passing game to take pressure off star RB Benny Snell Jr. If he can complete a handful of critical throws, though, Snell could do the rest.
David Kenyon
I won't bury the lede: Georgia wins. Wilson deserves credit for his career-best output and game-winning throw to beat Missouri last week. However, it's unlikely he's going to succeed against Georgia's secondary. His mobility, though, will stress an already-average UGA run defense. Wilson and Snell are going to find some space and take Georgia to the wire.
Adam Kramer
Kentucky will cover. Let's start there. Kentucky isn't just a fun story anymore, even if it did benefit from one of the worst defensive pass interference calls ever seen last week. The question is whether the Wildcats can muster up enough offense against a defense that will be bigger and faster.
Given the fact the game is in Lexington, I feel the Wildcats will be up to the challenge. But they'll fall just short in one of the best games of the weekend. Georgia 24, Kentucky 20.
Kerry Miller
Kentucky's defense is going to cause major problems for Georgia's offense. Moreover, Snell is awesome and will likely bounce back from an off day against Missouri to rush for more than 100 yards in this game. However, unless it's a repeat of Georgia's loss to LSU in which the Bulldogs were minus-four in turnover margin, I don't see the upset happening. I would love to be wrong, though. No ill will toward Georgia, but I'd be very here for another few weeks of Kentucky's Cinderella story.
Brad Shepard
I want to pick this upset simply because the Wildcats have made me look foolish all season. It doesn't matter that they don't win pretty—they win. Their defense is strong and they are solid along both lines of scrimmage, too. Snell is one of the best players in all of college football, and they just keep making big plays at big moments.
But they haven't played a team as deep and talented as Georgia. Wilson is going to have to throw the ball better than he has all year for UK to have a chance, and I just don't see that. Georgia wins with balance, and the Bulldogs will pull away late to win by a score like 27-13.
Ian Wharton
No. Kentucky is a solid team that has more than earned its ranking. Losing to Georgia wouldn't be an indictment on the Wildcats, but it'd rather be the product of a deeper, more complete team doing what it should. The Wildcats can give the Bulldogs fits with their backfield tandem of Snell and Wilson, but I don't see them being enough to outscore the more diverse set of playmakers on Georgia's roster.
Does Penn State Spoil Michigan's Quest for the College Football Playoff?
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Matt Hayes
How do you bet against Penn State QB Trace McSorley? The guy lives for these games, and he has the uncanny ability to produce big plays at the most critical times. That said, there's one big problem in the way: the Michigan defense. Penn State hasn't protected well this season, and the passing windows are much tighter against Michigan than they were against any other Penn State opponent this season. That's not a good combination, so Michigan wins.
David Kenyon
Taking a literal approach to the question, the answer might be no either way. An 11-2 Big Ten champion would still have a decent argument if there's another two-loss Power Five conference champion. But I'm picking Michigan anyway. The Wolverines likely won't put up a ton of points, but no offense ever matches up well against this defense. U-M wins a tight one at home.
Adam Kramer
After Penn State, the Wolverines draw Rutgers and Indiana. Those games—barring the breakdown of all breakdowns—are wins. Then Michigan heads to Columbus for what might be a playoff elimination game. So this week is huge, and I think Jim Harbaugh and Co. will be up for it.
Michigan left so many points on the board against Michigan State, which could be viewed a few ways. If they clean it up, the Wolverines could be scary. If they don't, that may ultimately bite them. It won't bite them here, though. Michigan will look the part of a playoff team and win by 13 points.
Kerry Miller
Penn State has almost exclusively played in weird games this season, including four in a row that have come right down to the wire. Factor in the near-loss to Appalachian State in the season opener and when the Nittany Lions trailed Illinois midway through the third quarter, and it's clearly impossible to know what to expect from this team in any given week.
But I do believe Michigan is too strong (especially on defense) to let this home game slip away. If McSorley is in any way hobbled by the leg injury he suffered against Iowa last week, the Wolverines could win this one in blowout fashion.
Brad Shepard
I'm going to enjoy watching this game because it is McSorley's opportunity to get a signature win in his senior season and cap off a brilliant career. Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, this isn't a fairy tale.
There are too many issues for Penn State, which has struggled throwing the ball at times. Michigan's defense is one of the best in the nation, and that will carry the Wolverines on Saturday. Harbaugh has learned not to force things on offense, and Shea Patterson playing within himself and within the framework of the offense has led to seven consecutive wins. He'll make it eight here.
Ian Wharton
No, but this will be closer than what the OddsShark line (Michigan, -10.5) would have you believe. Michigan is an excellent team, but the Nittany Lions will be ready to finish what they couldn't against Ohio State earlier this year. The Wolverines will keep this game ugly and make life difficult on McSorley in ways few defenses can, thanks to Don Brown's set of edge-rushers. I expect a low-scoring affair that the Wolverines gut out in the fourth quarter.
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One More AP Top 15 Clash: Will West Virginia Win at Texas?
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Matt Hayes
This is a tough spot for West Virginia, if only because it has to deal with a desperate Texas team. If the Longhorns want to win the Big 12 regular-season title, they absolutely cannot lose here, as they are currently tied with the Mountaineers and Sooners with one league loss each.
That said, Oklahoma State clearly showed the path to beating Texas—and WVU's passing game is much more sophisticated (and dangerous) than Oklahoma State's. The Mountaineers need to play sound defensively and not allow Texas QB Sam Ehlinger to hurt them in the run game, which they will.
David Kenyon
I love watching West Virginia. I also worry about Will Grier's ability to consistently make the right choice while under pressure, and Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando will attack, attack, attack—particularly because his more complicated blitzes are best suited for a non-mobile quarterback. I'll take the Longhorns.
Adam Kramer
I'll be honest with you because I don't ever enjoy lying to you, Joe Reader: I don't feel great about this game. At times, both teams have looked like they can hang with just about anyone. That hasn't been the case at all times, though, as demonstrated by Texas last week.
I'll take the Longhorns, largely because the game is at home. They will play far better than they did against Oklahoma State. This much I feel good about. Whether they can slow down Grier is another story, but I believe they will slow him down just enough.
Kerry Miller
Let me start by saying I'm not buying stock in either of these teams. The Big 12 is clearly Oklahoma's to lose. Texas's defense was hideous in the loss to Oklahoma State, as it was in the marquee win over Oklahoma. And West Virginia's defense might be even worse. The Mountaineers haven't yet faced either Oklahoma school, but they looked bad against both Texas Tech and Iowa State.
But I suppose I'll take West Virginia here because I trust Grier against a bad defense more than I trust Ehlinger (fully healthy shoulder or not) against one.
Brad Shepard
Texas was a nice story for a few weeks, and the Longhorns are still on the up and up with Tom Herman at the helm. But their secondary was exposed in the season opener against Maryland as well as against Oklahoma State in Stillwater last weekend. Now, they must play against Grier, one of the top three passing quarterbacks in the country. Dana Holgorsen has to be licking his chops against the Longhorns.
It's not going to be easy for the Mountaineers to go into Austin and win, but that passing attack looked strong last week in rebounding from its hapless performance against Iowa State. It just feels like Grier is going to come through, setting up a massive game against Oklahoma at the end of the regular season. WVU is still on the fringe of the playoff conversation, and it will strengthen its case with a win this weekend.
Ian Wharton
One week after losing to Mike Gundy, now Texas has to defeat Gundy's protege, Holgorsen. The Longhorns seemed to miss every first tackle opportunity in last week's loss to the Cowboys, and that's uncharacteristic for this defense. They're normally much better at finishing than that.
This is a must-win game for Grier, who has struggled more than expected in recent weeks as the offense has been bogged down. I think Texas withstands a furious effort by Grier and his playmakers as they get back to limiting mistakes, and the Longhorns win a tight one.
Will Any Ranked Team* Lose During the Noon ET Games?
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*This question was asked after the AP Top 25 poll came out, but before the CFP Top 25 came out. Iowa State plays Kansas at noon ET and is No. 24 in the CFP poll, but the Cyclones were not ranked in the AP poll. Thus, that game was not considered, nor mentioned below. However, it's probably safe to assume all six experts are expecting the Cyclones to defeat the Jayhawks.
Matt Hayes
It's tempting to say no to all four games. I just have a feeling about Auburn at home against Texas A&M, though. Yes, I know Tennessee went to Auburn a few weeks ago and won rather comfortably, and Texas A&M is better on both sides of the ball than the Volunteers. Auburn's one hope against a fierce Texas A&M pass rush is to spread it out and let QB Jarrett Stidham find open receivers with accurate throws. That and a couple of turnovers forced from the Auburn defense should make it happen.
David Kenyon
Fire Dabo Swinney if Clemson loses to Louisville in 2018. I think I'm joking. But seriously. While Ohio State's penchant for giving up big plays will probably help Nebraska stick around, there's no upset there either. Syracuse should be able to survive a trip to Wake Forest because the Demon Deacons can't stop the pass. Auburn's defense is a bad matchup for underdog Texas A&M, but I'm not trusting the Tigers to score much against the Aggies, either. Everyone survives.
Adam Kramer
If Clemson loses to Louisville, I will write a poem to Bobby Petrino in one of my answers next week.
That being said, I will pick two ranked teams to lose in the early slate: Syracuse and Texas A&M.
Auburn is actually favored in this game, so this wouldn't be a true upset. The Tigers aren't a perfect team by any means, but home field and the bye should help them quite a bit. I also like Wake Forest a bit in one of the weekend's most underrated games. Syracuse's two losses have both come on the road, and Wake can be a tricky place to play. Also, if you like copious touchdowns and points in unexpected places, you'll want to tune in here.
Kerry Miller
Clemson and Ohio State might beat Louisville and Nebraska by a combined margin of 100 points—no exaggeration. Syracuse's offense should have a field day in a win against Wake Forest's dreadfully bad defense. (The oddsmakers can't possibly set the over/under high enough for that game; OddsShark has it at 75.5) And I'll even take Texas A&M on the road against an Auburn team coming off a bye. The Aggies gave up a couple of huge plays in the loss to Mississippi State, but their defense will get back on track in this one.
Brad Shepard
Two of them will lose. Texas A&M has a history of second-half struggles, and the Aggies did not look good in last week's loss to Mississippi State. Auburn has endured many internal struggles that led to losses this season, but the Tigers caught fire late last year and started playing well. They can't accomplish the same goals this season, but they know they need a big win over the Aggies at home to get the season heading in the right direction. They'll get it.
Wake Forest also is going to upset a Syracuse team that has been flirting with losses the past couple of weeks. Dino Babers is a good coach, but I think the Demon Deacons offense is clicking and will come away with a win.
Ian Wharton
Upsets have been happening with regularity over the last few weeks, but we will see one early among this slate. Clemson and Ohio State will pulverize their foes, with zero chance of being upset. Syracuse isn't highly ranked, but getting quarterback Eric Dungey back into the lineup should give the Orange an extra boost to beat Wake Forest comfortably. The Aggies are most at risk, and they will lose. Auburn has disappointed this season as the offense hasn't grown as hoped, but I think the Tigers steal one at home against the young Aggies.
Who Scores More Points: Houston (at SMU) or Oklahoma (at Texas Tech)?
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Matt Hayes
You're kidding, right? I'll take Oklahoma in a game with at least 100 combined points. Don't get too excited about OU shutting down Kansas State last week. The Wildcats are playing out the string and are limited offensively. And don't get too excited about Texas Tech's newfound "defense" this fall. (Come on, they just gave up 40 to Iowa State last week.) These guys are going at it, score for score, quarter by quarter. The most exciting game of the weekend. Enjoy it.
David Kenyon
Give me Oklahoma, mostly because Texas Tech will force the Sooners to score more than SMU does Houston. That's not a dig at SMU, for the record. The Mustangs are usually decent defensively at home. Texas Tech has shown it's able to slow opponents, but Kyler Murray brings a whole different level of production.
Adam Kramer
I spent the last few weeks reading and writing about Texas Tech-Oklahoma from 2016. (Shameless plug: You should read it.) So maybe I am biased in expecting another points party, especially considering the Red Raiders have played a little defense of late.
They have not, however, faced Murray just yet, and that could change our perception of a defense that has taken some pretty quality steps forward. Texas Tech will score plenty, although the Sooners might hang 45 or 50.
Kerry Miller
If Oklahoma falls short of the playoff, I hope there's some way we can get these two teams to play each other in a bowl game, because Murray vs. D'Eriq King would be the most remarkable QB battle since Vince Young vs. Matt Leinart in the 2005 national championship.
Though I do think Houston easily continues its streak of scoring at least 40 points in every game this season, I'm going with Oklahoma here. The Sooners have averaged 59.3 points in their last three games against Texas Tech, and they have averaged 53.5 points over their last four games this season. Murray and Co. drop 56 on Texas Tech while King's Cougars go for 49 against SMU.
Brad Shepard
Houston will score more. King is the truth, and this is a unit that is firing on all cylinders coming off the big-time win over previously undefeated South Florida. Oklahoma doesn't have any trouble scoring points, either, of course. But I'll take the Cougars, who look like they're beginning to understand offensive coordinator Kendal Briles' concepts, which is translating into a lot of points. They'll get to at least 55 in this one.
Ian Wharton
Never bet against the offense facing Texas Tech. Houston will clobber SMU, as King will likely post another monstrous game for the Cougars. But at least SMU has limited most of its opponents to a respectable score. The Red Raiders are much less consistent, and Murray will push them to the brink of their capabilities. Both Houston and Oklahoma may end up in the 60s.
The Biggest Underdog to Win Outright Will Be...?
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Matt Hayes
Purdue will get it back this week at home against No. 16 Iowa. Last week's loss to Michigan State was a natural letdown game after the big win over Ohio State; it was in a tough road venue against a strong defense. But the Boilermakers will do what Penn State did to Iowa last week: get some big plays on offense and get a couple of critical turnovers to win the game in the fourth quarter.
(Note: This wouldn't actually be an upset as far as Vegas is concerned. Purdue is favored by a field goal. But an almost Top 15 team losing to an unranked opponent will still create some shock waves.)
David Kenyon
Since victories over Arizona and Colorado, USC's defense hasn't done much stopping. I can't believe I'm picking a 16-point underdog, but let's go with Oregon State. It seems the Trojans are starting to reach for the panic button, and the Beavers will be a confident group after pulling off a remarkable second-half comeback at Colorado. Now, they're at home. Laugh at me later.
Adam Kramer
Give me Baylor over Oklahoma State, which would be a sizable upset—OK State is favored by 7.5—but certainly not magnificent in nature.
I have long been a believer in letdowns and momentum, and Oklahoma State's win over Texas qualifies for a subsequent dud. Going on the road could be problematic, and I could see Baylor taking advantage of the situation. Not the boldest of upset calls, but it's one I will attempt to forecast.
Kerry Miller
I'm taking San Jose State to win as a two-touchdown dog at Wyoming. When QB Josh Love has been able to play, the Spartans haven't been that bad. They had close losses to Hawaii and San Diego State before finally breaking through for a 50-37 win over UNLV last week. And Wyoming doesn't have the offense to keep pace with a team that can score three touchdowns.
Brad Shepard
Stanford is a double-digit underdog on the road at Washington after taking the best team in the Pac-12 (Washington State) into overtime last weekend. I haven't been able to predict that conference well all year for whatever reason, but it doesn't take a football wizard to see Huskies quarterback Jake Browning's regression in his senior season.
I don't believe in UW's offense anymore, and last weekend David Shaw finally opened up the passing game with K.J. Costello. The Cardinal will have success doing that this weekend and win a big one in the Pac-12 North.
Ian Wharton
Duke will beat Miami as a 9.5-point underdog. (I was tempted to take Hawaii +18, but I don't trust that defense against a powerful Utah State offensive attack.) The Blue Devils have a well-rounded team that can handle Miami's athletic advantages in the trenches with better schemes. Head coach David Cutcliffe will dial things up after a surprising loss to Pittsburgh last week. And Miami is reeling after barely beating a bad Florida State team and dropping two in a row since.
Over/Under: 399.5 Passing Yards for Gardner Minshew II vs. California?
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Matt Hayes
Under. The Cal defense is the real deal. It wasn't a one-week deal (versus Washington last week) or even a one-season thing. The Bears were solid last year on defense and are even better this fall—especially in pass coverage. They rank No. 8 in the nation in passing yards given up, No. 17 in passer efficiency rating and No. 16 in yards per attempt. They'll be able to stifle Minshew.
David Kenyon
Cal's secondary is quite good! That belief isn't even a product of last week's showing since Washington's passing game has been a disaster for about two years now. The Bears have ridden their defense all season. But while I think Minshew won't get to within striking distance of 400 yards, Cal's limited offense will be its downfall on the road.
Adam Kramer
Minshew has gone over this number in three of the past four weeks, which is pretty astonishing. Although perhaps we shouldn't be shocked given the way Washington State has played and the way Minshew has performed.
But Cal's defense—even when the team was struggling after a hot start—has been rock-solid. This is not the same team that you remember: the one that used to allow 55 points and more than 500 yards of offense a few years ago. This team still isn't perfect, but it has taken such massive strides on that side of the ball.
So I will go under. Not by much, but I'll say Minshew finishes with the following stat line in a victory: 365 passing yards, four touchdowns.
Kerry Miller
California's secondary has been outstanding, and the Golden Bears have run the ball at least 33 times in each game this season—bleeding plenty of clock in the process. But it's not like Washington State is going to start trying to get the run game going here. Minshew will throw and throw and then throw some more, but he'll fall a little shy of 400 yards. Let's call it 355 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 14-point Cougars win.
Brad Shepard
Over. Fear the 'stache.
Ian Wharton
Under. Who would've thought the Cougars would upgrade so considerably over Luke Falk with Minshew? But he has helped lead a good Cougars team to this point, as his decision-making and comfort under Mike Leach has improved considerably. However, the Golden Bears have an elite passing defense and will likely use defensive looks that force the Cougars to run the ball more in order to gain any advantage they can.
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