The Chaos Scenario That Will Land UCF in the College Football Playoff

UCF needs help. Maybe even a miracle.

That's the simple version of the Knights' ongoing predicament. Despite pulling off an undefeated season in 2017 and winning seven straight to begin the current campaign, UCF appears to have found a glass ceiling at No. 10 in the AP poll.

In each of the last three weeks, UCF has rounded out the Top 10. Although the College Football Playoff committee is instructed to discredit polls, the undefeated Knights consistently ranked behind two-loss teams in last season's CFP rankings.

After being left out of the championship tournament in 2017, the AAC school declared itself the national champion. In a sport typically devoid of Cinderellas, UCF was one.

But even if UCF finishes the regular season 11-0 and wins the conference championship, 12-0 likely won't be enough to sway the committee for the second straight year.

In other words, the Knights need a miracle.

Since a single loss would crush UCF's playoff dreams, there's an extremely slim chance Josh Heupel's team slides into the tournament. But the chance exists, and that alone is worth exploring.

UCF's Outlook

En route to a 7-0 record, McKenzie Milton and Co. have posted six victories of 20-plus points. The only outlier is a 31-30 triumph over Memphis, during which the Knights overcame a 16-point deficit.

Criticize the margin all you want; winning on the road is hard.

Fortunately for UCF, its next three contests are at home prior to the regular-season finale. The remaining schedule is rather difficult, which is both good and bad.

Temple (Nov. 1) and Cincinnati (Nov. 17) boast top-10 defenses. Navy (Nov. 10) and its triple-option attack can be flummoxing. The War on I-4 sends UCF to South Florida (Nov. 23) for a midweek game on short rest against a quality offense.

For this discussion to hold water, the Knights cannot lose any of those games. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, UCF holds a 31.9 percent chance of winning out. That's the seventh-best probability in the country.

Navigating that stretch—plus the AAC Championship Game, potentially against a Top 25 Houston team—will be difficult. The Knights won't be coasting to the finish, but they must continue putting up double-digit wins to satisfy the subjective eye test.

UCF's Obstacles

Without question, perception is UCF's main obstacle moving forward. Fair or not, power-conference schools are automatically given more respect.

The CFP committee is supposed to consider common opponents without incenting margin of victory. Well, UCF has convincing wins over Florida Atlantic, Pitt and SMU to match Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Michigan, respectively.

However, the directive to consider strength of schedule—while understandable—is where numbers will be used to justify the perception of an easy slate. UCF currently ranks 123rd nationally in that category, and it isn't going to rise dramatically enough to matter.

One annoying argument against UCF: The Knights beat Memphis by only one point, and Memphis lost to Missouri 65-33. True! But UCF beat Pitt by 31, and you can guarantee that won't be used as a way to discredit Notre Dame, which clipped Pitt 19-14. Don't use the transitive property.

New season, same problem for UCF.

UCF Wants Bama...and Nobody Else in SEC

Alabama is clearly the No. 1 team in the country. Even with an 11-1 record, the Crimson Tide should make the College Football Playoff. But if Nick Saban's squad loses a game, that means an SEC opponent will boast an unmatched bullet on its resume.

So, UCF wants Bama to finish 13-0. But the rest of the SEC? It's safest if they finish 9-3 or worse. That means 7-1 LSU loses to Alabama and Texas A&M, which also drops at least one other contest. No other West Division program would have a shot.

The East is a bit trickier. Kentucky would have to lose to Missouri and Georgia, the latter of which would win the division by knocking out Florida. But the Bulldogs would then have to lose to Auburn on Nov. 10 and to Alabama in the SEC title game.

Clemson, Keep Winning

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In a head-to-head look, would the CFP committee consider Clemson and UCF comparable? It's hard to believe Dabo Swinney's club wouldn't be positioned a tier higher.

As long as the Tigers kept winning, that would ensure no two-loss champion emerges from the ACC. The Coastal Division champion—extremely unlikely as 11-2 may be—would at least have an argument to leap UCF if the 11th win was over Clemson.

Big Ten, Pac-12 Continue Inner Turmoil

As with the SEC, UCF is aiming for three-loss teams here. While similarly unlikely, the path isn't unreasonable, either.

If Michigan loses to Penn State and Ohio State falls at Michigan State, "The Game" would send either U-M or OSU to a third loss, which MSU already has. Penn State would reach the mark if Iowa upset the Nittany Lions, who could return the favor on Wisconsin.

Would anyone be shocked at those individual results?

The key to ultimate Big Ten destruction is the West Division champ defeating what will likely be Michigan or Ohio State in the title game. Considering our existing chaos, as long as 6-1 Iowa doesn't ultimately finish 12-1, the CFP committee would need a doozy of an explanation to include the West winner.

Similarly, the Pac-12 is short on hope. At 6-1, Washington State is the only remaining Pac-12 school with fewer than two losses. UCF should be ranked ahead of any two-loss Pac-12 team.

Washington State still has both Stanford and Washington on the docket, and they play each other, too. Throw in another blemish for Oregon, Utah and Colorado, and the Pac-12 won't be in the conversation.

One True Champion in the Big 12

Texas, be back! Or very much not. Either one helps UCF, provided one of Texas, Oklahoma or West Virginia keep winning all the way through the Big 12 Championship Game.

In reality, the best option is Oklahoma given the strength of the Kyler Murray-led offense and the program's recent success. It would be easier to dismiss Texas or West Virginia.

As long as the Longhorns fell to any of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech or Iowa State along with West Virginia, they'd be eliminated. The Mountaineers would need to take a 9-1 record into the regular-season finale with Oklahoma to ensure a tiebreak advantage, but two straight losses to OU would bounce WVU.

Voila! One true champion. So, UCF: Boomer Sooner.

Get Outta Here, Notre Dame

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One loss wouldn't be enough to vault the Knights past Notre Dame. Two might.

Four of the Fighting Irish's last five contests will be away from South Bend, including a season-ending trip to USC. Additionally, Florida State—as flawed as the Seminoles are—at least has a defense with enough talent to strain Notre Dame's offense.

From UCF's perspective, it doesn't matter how or when. The Knights just need a late-season breakdown from the Irish.

So You're Telling Me There's a Chance

That's what UCF is up against. Easy, really.

While it's possible the committee affords the Knights an edge over two-loss power-conference teams, that rarely happened in 2017. From November to December, the CFP rankings featured 37 such instances. UCF found itself ahead of only three of them.

Quite a precedent there. That's why the three-loss benchmark is so critical outside of the Pac-12.

By no means is UCF guaranteed a 12-0 record with an AAC crown, but the Knights would need a preposterous sequence of results to be a front-runner in the CFP discussion.

Do your thing, Team Chaos.

Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.