Should the Oakland Raiders Give Up on Derek Carr?

Ever since signing a $100 million contract to return to coaching in January, Jon Gruden has seemingly been determined to put his personal stamp on the Oakland Raiders.

Might that soon lead to the end of the Derek Carr era in Oakland? The moves Gruden has made suggest nobody is safe.

Before the new league year began in March, the Raiders released veteran defensive backs David Amerson and Sean Smith. Two more key defenders, Denico Autry and T.J. Carrie, were allowed to walk early in free agency, and starting wide receiver Michael Crabtree was cut at around the same time. Soon after that, receiver Cordarrelle Patterson was traded and punter Marquette King was jettisoned under strange circumstances. 

In a five-month span, they acquired, waived and re-signed troubled wide receiver Martavis Bryant. 

In a three-week span, they acquired and waived bust quarterback Christian Hackenberg. 

All the while, Gruden continued to raise eyebrows by investing in aging veterans as rumors swirled regarding his relationship (or lack thereof) with disgruntled superstar pass-rusher Khalil Mack. 

Sure enough, Gruden traded Mack to the Chicago Bears on Sept. 1, ensuring that the Raiders would have a vastly different look and feel in his first season back. 

But it's possible Gruden isn't done. It's possible he won't stop until he has remade this franchise to his liking.

That could mean two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Amari Cooper's time in Oakland will soon come to an end, but it could also indicate the Raiders will be looking for a new starting quarterback in the spring. 

Is Carr next to go? Should Carr be next to go?

Rotoworld's Evan Silva pointed out on Monday that—per Over the Cap—the Raiders can save $15 million in salary-cap space by releasing Carr after this season:

The timing of Silva's observation wasn't a fluke. It's obvious Gruden is slowly cleaning house, and his highly-paid quarterback was once again ineffective Sunday in a blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks in London. 

Despite completing 74.2 percent of his passes, Carr averaged just 3.6 passing yards per dropback against Seattle. That's because—as Rotoworld's Josh Norris pointed out—Next Gen Stats confirms that the three-time Pro Bowler attempted just one pass that traveled more than eight yards beyond the line of scrimmage: 

In a three-score loss, that's remarkable. 

It was Carr's third performance with a sub-85 passer rating this season. He's posted a rating of 95 or higher just once, and he still has more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (seven). 

Despite possessing the league's second-highest completion percentage (71.7), Carr's 29th-ranked 10.7 yards-per-completion average has him rated 22nd among 34 qualified passers with a 89.4 rating. 

And last season was just as ugly, with Carr ranking below the league median in most rate-based statistical categories. 

Among 22 quarterbacks who have thrown 600-plus passes since the start of 2017, Carr ranks 19th (ahead of only Jameis Winston, Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota) with a interception rate of 2.81 percent. And he fares only slightly better when it comes to touchdown percentage, passer rating and yards per attempt. 

Now, legit excuses exist.

This season, Carr hasn't been supported well by an offensive line that is relying on two rookie offensive tackles and was down to a third-string left guard for much of Sunday's game. With veteran left tackle Donald Penn on injured reserve and two-time Pro Bowl guard Kelechi Osemele dealing with a knee injury, Carr was under pressure on virtually all of his dropbacks against the Seahawks. 

It also doesn't help that the running game ranks in the bottom 10 in terms of yards per game and yards per attempt, or that the Oakland defense has little bite without Mack. That unit ranks 29th in the NFL on third down and has surrendered 29.3 points per game. 

As for last season, he was coming back from a major leg injury and spent much of the year fighting an injured back.

That said, he's healthy this year, and he had Mack, Crabtree, a slightly better running game and one of the league's best offensive lines in 2017. Elite quarterbacks find ways to get the job done, and Carr is paid like an elite quarterback.

At this point, it's fair to wonder if Carr will ever become the quarterback he was before breaking his right fibula on Christmas Eve, 2016. He's essentially become a checkdown artist ever since, rarely hanging in the pocket or taking chances. 

Is he playing scared? Does he have the patience and fortitude to hang in the pocket against the rush? Or did that injury change him? It probably doesn't help that just a few weeks after returning from said leg injury, Carr suffered a transverse process fracture in his back on another awkward sack.

Carr later acknowledged that injury impacted his 2017 season. It's possible it impacted him mentally, and it's possible that's lingering. 

The Raiders will soon have to decide whether to cut bait and start fresh under center or hitch their wagon to Carr for several years to come.

General manager Reggie McKenzie drafted Carr in 2014, but it doesn't appear as though he's calling the shots anymore, and Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports reported last month that this might be McKenzie's last year in Oakland anyway. 

Of course, it might also be the entire franchise's last year in Oakland. The team is scheduled to move to Las Vegas in 2020, but Michael Gehlken of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported in September that, with the organization's lease with with Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum expiring this year, "contingency sites are being considered" for 2019 home games. 

If Gruden prefers to draft and groom his own quarterback, 2019 might be the year to do it. It'd give the Raiders an opportunity to start from scratch with extra money and draft picks in Las Vegas, even if doing so would be tremendously risky considering that Carr is 27 and only two years removed from a near-MVP-caliber season. 

Gruden has already planted some seeds. He's been publicly critical of Carr on multiple occasions this season, questioning his decisions in Week 1, openly wondering later that month if he was "trying too hard" and noting to the media just last week that he "presses at some moments."

In just a few months, Gruden will likely have to decide whether to ride with Carr across the Nevada border as the franchise prepares for a new era. This may already be a spoiled season for the organization, but Carr's play over the next 10 games just might determine where he'll be working in 2019 and beyond. 

If Carr can't finally start to consistently overcome a lack of support the way superstar quarterbacks often do, Gruden and the Raiders would be right to at least consider moving on.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon