Ranking the Top 10 NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates for 2018-19
Statistics play a major role in determining the NBA Rookie of the Year. To have a shot, the player must be NBA-ready, but he also requires the right opportunity.
Unless a trade occurs midseason, some rookies just won't have enough minutes to produce based on their current roster's situation. However, most of 2018's top-10 picks appear locked into their rotations.
The following rankings are unrelated to long-term potential and instead take into account those prepared to have the most impressive rookie campaigns.
10B. Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Memphis Grizzlies
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Jaren Jackson Jr. would rank top-three if we were talking about the best players for the 2022-23 season. But at 19 years old and raw with Marc Gasol still in the picture, Jackson won't have enough opportunities or production to win Rookie of the Year.
However, he will finish top-10 this season from his class. Jackson made all six shots during his preseason debut before fouling out in 19 minutes.
He'll show off his shooting range, low-post game, developing face-up moves and ridiculous timing as a shot-blocker. The NBA will also expose his shot-creating limitations and foul-happy defense—at least in 2018-19.
10A. Mohamed Bamba, C, Orlando Magic
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Mohamed Bamba's Rookie of the Year chances would improve dramatically if the team traded Nikola Vucevic. But until that happens, he's stuck playing backup minutes.
Even in a role off the bench, Bamba will remain a threat to block multiple shots per game. And though he won't be heavily featured in the offense, his enormous length and mobility should still translate to easy-basket chances, rebounds and a high field-goal percentage each game.
As a rookie, opposing bigs will expose his lack of strength, which can make it tough for him to gain post position or hold his ground under the boards. Otherwise, he's going to excite the Orlando fanbase with his flashes of above-the-rim play and surprise shooting touch.
9. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Los Angeles Clippers
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To realistically compete in the Rookie of the Year debate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will need the Los Angeles Clippers to make a trade. Because he'll only have so many minutes and touches with Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley, Lou Williams and Milos Teodosic in the rotation.
But the Kentucky product continues to build momentum, which started brewing in January before carrying over to summer league and now preseason.
NBA point guards will have trouble matching up with Gilgeous-Alexander's unique size and length, which he uses effectively to shoot, pass and finish over defenders. He's unlikely to knock down a high percentage of three-point shots, but he's looked comfortable on the attempts we've seen so far.
8. Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, Sacramento Kings
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Marvin Bagley III's role and athleticism should translate to rookie production.
Assuming he sees time in the 25-30-minute range alongside Willie Cauley-Stein, Bagley should receive and convert enough easy-basket opportunities per game just by running the floor, diving to the basket and crashing the offensive glass.
It will be tougher for him to score when the game slows down and he's standing around the arc. But when the spacing is right, he'll attack off the dribble and score on the move. And if given enough room, he should be able to make the occasional catch-and-shoot three.
Bagley's rebounding numbers will be strong as well.
He's still limited as a shot-creator in the half court, and without a reliable jumper, there will be too many games in which he struggles offensively. But Bagley is also a good bet to finish among the top-three rookies in double-doubles.
7. Trae Young, PG, Atlanta Hawks
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Inefficiency and losses will make it difficult for Trae Young to compete for Rookie of the Year with the other top picks in the draft.
He'll still lead the class in assists and experience games when he catches fire and scores in bunches. Young's playmaking and passing should be there every game, though, and he'll go through streaks when his three-ball is on and his confidence is high that lead to 20-point efforts.
But without many other weapons in the lineup, opposing defenses will key on Young in the backcourt. And given his lack of size, length and athleticism, it will take a few seasons for him to adjust and learn how to separate cleaner and finish.
The production will be there for Young, but it will be overshadowed by a potentially brutal field-goal percentage and the Atlanta Hawks' record, which will be one of the worst in the league.
6. Collin Sexton, PG/SG, Cleveland Cavaliers
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From high school and AAU to college, summer league and now preseason, Collin Sexton has proved he can score against any defense at every level. In terms of the Rookie of the Year discussion, the question is whether he'll have enough of an opportunity to routinely score in volume.
George Hill is still the starter, and Rodney Hood returned, along with Jordan Clarkson and JR Smith, who may all be secondary options to Kevin Love and breakout candidate Cedi Osman.
And just based on his style of play and weakness, Sexton won't put up big assist numbers, which likely hurt Donovan Mitchell's case last season.
But Sexton knows how to put pressure on defenses with his explosion and speed. And when his confidence is up, he becomes capable of knocking down jumper after jumper.
He'll give the Cleveland Cavaliers a tough defender as well, though it's not a contribution that typically holds weight in the Rookie of the Year debate. Unless the Cavaliers trade Hill and give Sexton the keys and green light to play 30 minutes, he'll remain a longer shot, albeit a contender.
5. Wendell Carter Jr., PF/C, Chicago Bulls
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Wendell Carter Jr.'s role figures to start small and gradually grow once the Chicago Bulls inevitably fall out of playoff contention. January could be the month he starts building a case when the coaching staff begins prioritizing his development over Robin Lopez's stability.
After averaging 14.6 points in summer league, Carter has continued to look good in preseason, making nine of his first 16 shots, including a three-pointer through two games.
At 6'10", 255 pounds, Carter is going to finish, rebound and earn second-chance points just by tapping into his physical tools and nose for the ball. But he'll get that scoring average going with his post game and shooting touch that's looked capable of extending out to the arc.
4. Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Charlotte Hornets
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After two productive years at Michigan State, Miles Bridges landed in a suitable environment for development, as well as immediate production that could help earn him a spot in the Rookie of the Year mix.
He'll play right away in Charlotte, where the Hornets lack frontcourt scoring weapons, though they'll also value his ability to guard multiple positions. Bridges' versatility could ultimately translate to minutes at the 3, 4 and even small-ball 5.
He's off to a scorching start in preseason, averaging 15.7 points in 26.3 minutes on 8-of-15 shooting from three.
Bridges will cool off from outside, but he averaged at least two triples a game each season in college, and it's clear he'll remain a routine shot-making threat from day one. And he's going to score his fair share of points using his first step to attack, explosiveness around the basket and improvisation with one-handers around the key.
3. Kevin Knox, SF/PF, New York Knicks
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Summer-league Kevin Knox hasn't shown up in the preseason, but that's mostly the result of fewer touches to go around with coach David Fizdale playing 15 players. He'll get fed during the regular season as a likely starter from October to April.
Athletic with 6'9" size, a solid pull-up game and threatening three-ball, Knox should emerge as one of the top rookie scorers.
He can be overly casual, which will result in a high turnover rate and some questionable shot selection. Knox also won't check the assist column, meaning he'll have to really put up points to compete with the other top rookies for votes.
He's a lock to average between 10 and 15 points while rebounding at a respectable rate. Ultimately, the appeal to Knox stems from his long-term potential. This upcoming year should have its ups and downs.
2. Luka Doncic, G/F, Dallas Mavericks
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Last year's Euroleague MVP, Luka Doncic is as prepared as anyone for the 2018-19 NBA season. But will he score enough to win the Rookie of the Year award?
He'll build a case by checking boxes across the board with versatility that touches the assist, rebound, three-point and steal columns. Doncic must ultimately follow Ben Simmons' recipe for success to earn votes.
It will be challenging, being that Dennis Smith Jr. gets to dominate the ball and Doncic must work from the wing and forward spots. Still, even from there, we'll see his secondary playmaking, crafty scoring and threatening three-ball.
Doncic will immediately impact games in a variety of ways. He just won't produce enough in any one category to steal votes from our projected favorite, who's poised to lead all rookies in two key areas while shooting a higher percentage.
1. Deandre Ayton, C, Phoenix Suns
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Along with obvious talent and skill, NBA Rookies of the Year also need the physical strength and opportunity in terms of minutes and shots. Every box is checked for Deandre Ayton, the draft's No. 1 pick who's 7'1", 250 pounds and appears locked into a high-usage starting role.
Debuting with 24 points, nine rebounds and three blocks, it's already looking easy for the Phoenix Suns' new center of the present and future.
Ayton will continue to have success around the basket by positioning himself for easy finishes with his quick slips, length and ability to play high above the rim. He shouldn't even need to tap into any skill to consistently approach double-doubles. But after a season at Arizona, one summer league and three games in October, it's clear that Ayton's mid-range jumper will be an every-game weapon defenses struggle to challenge.
He's the best bet to lead all rookies in scoring, and he'll do so efficiently while also finishing as the likely rebounding champ.
Even if the Suns finish at the bottom of the standings, Ayton's individual numbers will be too much in a vote that favors statistics.
