OSS: USC vs. Oregon, Let the Fireworks Begin

Before the season, this game was expected to possibly be for the conference title.  It is time to believe the hype, because both teams are ready for the excitement and fanfare that will take place in Eugene on Halloween night. 

There are so many different angles to look at when analyzing this game, but only a few will play a huge part on Saturday night.

First let's take a look back at last week.  Oregon traveled into what could have easily been a trap game at Washington.  After a slow start for Jeremiah Masoli and the offense in the first half, the Ducks took control with a blocked punt for a touchdown and never looked back.  The same Husky team that beat USC was easily handled by the Ducks, 43-19.

The Ducks gave up some yards, but most of them were after the game was over.

On the USC side, the Trojans struggled against Oregon State at home and were forced to fight throughout the entire game, pulling out only a six-point victory over the Beavers.  The USC Trojans looked vulnerable as Beaver quarterback Sean Canfield threw for over 300 yards on the young Trojan defense.

As most fans know, ESPN’s College Gameday will be on site for the game Saturday, making it easily the biggest game of the week.  If the Ducks knock off the Trojans, they will have a virtual three-game lead over the Trojans and, barring a monumental collapse or serious injuries, would win the conference. 

USC Head Coach Pete Carroll will have his Trojans ready for a raucous Autzen Stadium atmosphere, but you can’t coach experience.  The Trojans have played in the Horseshoe at Ohio State, and at Husky Stadium in Washington, but nothing matches what Oregon fans bring to the game.  Just ask former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr.

I don’t expect USC to be rattled, but the players will be surprised, especially the young Matt Barkley. 

Secondly, this game might become a battle of defenses.  Oregon’s defense is ranked the highest it has been in years, at 19th in the nation. 

USC’s defense is talented, but young.  It gives up only 80 rushing yards a game, so something will have to give there, but it gives up over 210 passing yards per game.  Masoli looked rusty in the first half against Washington, but seemed to have his game back in the second half.

Oregon and USC have given up 12 and 11 touchdowns respectively and are both holding opponents to a third down conversion rate of almost 33 percent.  Now what does all this mean? 

This game will not end up 50-40.  I think we will see a similar game to the one we saw between these two teams in 2007.  That game was exciting throughout, with Dennis Dixon and the Ducks pulling out a 24-17 victory.

Another thing to keep in mind is that it will almost surely be raining and pretty cold.

Thirdly, both teams are young but have grown immensely throughout the season in tough games.  We should expect to see inconsistencies from both offenses, but flashes of brilliance. 

USC fans should be concerned with Barkley’s decision-making and how the team will respond to the environment.  Ducks fan should be concerned about scheming and whether the Ducks' speed will match the Trojans'.

The Ducks are 2-1 all-time when ESPN's Gameday comes to town, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that winning percentage increase. 

The Ducks have the athletes to compete with USC, and if they can play a solid football game and not beat themselves, like the Beavers did against the Trojans one week ago, the Ducks could control their destiny and virtually end the seven-year run of USC’s reign at the top of the Pac-10.

A win for Oregon would also make things much more interesting in the BCS, as Oregon jumping undefeated Boise State would be a real possibility.  But as all football fans know, they play the game for a reason, and this one will be worth watching after taking the kids trick-or-treating.