Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

Coach Dan Mullen did some good things at Mississippi State, and made a little money, going a respectable 36-28 against the spread over the last five seasons. But Mullen left after last year to take over at Florida, and he'll be on the opposite sideline when his Gators battle the Bulldogs on Saturday night in Starkville.

College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as eight-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.2-21.4 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

The Gators evened their SEC mark at 1-1 last week with a 47-21 triumph over Tennessee in Knoxville. Florida turned two early Volunteers turnovers into 14 points, led 26-3 at the half, then scored the first touchdown out of the locker room and cruised from there. The Gators later allowed the Vols a couple of meaningless touchdowns to make the final score more respectable but still easily covered the spread as four-point favorites.

On the day Florida ran the ball for 201 yards.

Three weeks ago the Gators opened SEC play with a 27-16 loss to what is a hot Kentucky team. But Florida led that game at the half 10-7 and had a couple chances late. A Wildcats fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game created a slightly misleading final score.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs are looking to rebound this week after a taking a 28-7 loss to that same Kentucky team last week in Lexington. Mississippi State scored the first touchdown of the game in the second quarter, then came up totally empty from there, in a puzzlingly poor performance better left forgotten.

MSU opened this season with a 63-6 walk-through against Stephen F. Austin, then dominated Kansas State 31-10 in Manhattan, then drubbed Louisiana-Lafayette 56-10. The Bulldogs running game had a tough time last week in the rain against Kentucky, but produced 220, 384 and 331 yards over the first three games of this season.

This week Mississippi State goes against a Gators defense that allowed Kentucky to run for 303 yards.

Smart betting pick

Both these teams own losses to Kentucky this season, but Florida's was the "better" performance. Also, early line movement indicated action on the Bulldogs, but it's never a bad idea betting against the flow. Smart money here takes Florida plus the points.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of Mississippi State's last nine games vs its conference.

Mississippi State is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games at home.

Florida is 49-7 SU in its last 56 games in September.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.