Predicting Which NBA Teams, Players Will Have Surprisingly Slow Starts
Injuries, chemistry misfires and general malaise are all familiar enemies of NBA success, but sometimes overblown expectations are just as damaging.
While we can't tinker with the internal hopes of every team and player, the least we can do as the dawn of the 2018-19 season approaches is to keep our own expectations in check. Several squads are getting a bit too much hype, and plenty of players will face a tougher start to the year than many anticipate.
That's not to say the parties populating this list are doomed. Instead, consider this a warning that sometimes it takes a while for teams and players to find their strides. And when dealing with bars set a little too high following playoff breakouts or postseason overhauls, it's doubly important to keep some perspective.
For everyone here, there's a good chance things work out in the end. But there are going to be some rough patches to overcome first.
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
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Jayson Tatum is going to be a star; everyone's on the same page there. But the conditions around him have changed significantly since he was his team's No. 1 option against LeBron James in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Both Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward are set to retake their spots in the Celtics' offensive hierarchy, and though neither figures into the franchise's long-term plans as clearly as Tatum (who's still only 20 years old), they're both ahead of Tatum in the pecking order.
The hype after Tatum's playoff performance was overwhelming. Though Boston fell to James, Tatum seemed a surefire standard-bearer-in-training. He didn't wither against elite competition, and the Kobe Bryant parallels didn't do much to dampen enthusiasm.
Remember, though, that Tatum averaged 18.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists with a 51.5 effective field-goal percentage in 19 playoff games. Impressive for a rookie, to be sure, but actually no more impactful than Jaylen Brown's postseason production: 18 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists with an effective field-goal percentage of 54.9.
So even before considering how Hayward and Irving will cut into his shots and diminish Tatum's role, there's also Brown to factor in. Boston has too many deserving (and more established) talents who sit above Tatum on the totem pole.
Positive spin: This may actually be good for Tatum, who'll get to work with a safety net for at least the next year or two—even if he may not need one.
Los Angeles Lakers
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Playing with LeBron James means you're going to the NBA Finals...at least that's what it's meant in each of the past eight years. In light of that, it's easy to understand the excitement surrounding the Los Angeles Lakers.
Playing with James is also an adjustment, though, and this year it's complicated by the fact that we're not even sure what version of James the Lakers are getting. Set aside concerns over age-related decline for now (even though those should be very near the front of everyone's thoughts) and remember James may play more center this season. If he's nearer to the basket, possibly looking to facilitate and/or get the ball out of his hands, that'll be a different look than anyone—new Lakers teammates included—has ever seen.
There's also the extra attention, four new and probably unhelpful veterans (Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley and JaVale McGee) and the depth of the Western Conference to consider.
L.A. is also laden with young players who deserve minutes. Though Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and others should eventually thrive alongside James, it may take time for head coach Luke Walton to massage the team dynamics in a way that both serves the youth and avoids alienating the veterans. There will be some tricky minute-management issues to untangle.
Can the rebuilt Lakers make the playoffs in a brutally tough West? Sure.
But we should expect James to customarily coast as the rest of the roster tries to figure out how it fits around the best player alive. That'll make for a difficult first month or two.
Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors
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Just so the record is clear, I think the Toronto Raptors are the best team in the East. They're deep, loaded with top-end talent and have Kawhi Leonard in the fold.
BUT!
There are going to be bumps in the road, and the going could be particularly difficult early on.
First, you've got the Leonard issues. Nobody's sure if he's completely healthy, as evidenced by new head coach Nick Nurse telling reporters of Leonard's fitness: "But a guy that hasn't played that much (over the last year), we're going to monitor it."
In addition to the troublesome quad that limited him to nine games a year ago, Leonard's status is also uncertain because, well, so is his future. Little has happened to change the perception that he's a short-timer with the Raps.
"I look at it as a day-to-day process," he told reporters at media day. "My focus is on this year, this group that I have and striving to get to a championship. We all want to win, and if you’re looking in the future, you're going to trip over the present, so my focus is on this year, tomorrow and just keep going after that."
Not exactly a commitment, not that anyone who's ever heard a press conference was expecting one.
How will the Raps coalesce around a star with a battered image and health concerns, one who's never operated outside the San Antonio Spurs bubble as a professional? How can Toronto's incumbent players be sure Leonard is really committed? How will Nurse navigate all of this as a first-time head coach?
The talent on the roster is overwhelming, so the Raptors are going to figure this out. Eventually.
Golden State Warriors
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How about this: You try making four consecutive Finals runs with the same core, playing in the ultimate high-leverage situations against the top competition in the world, ducking every opponent's best shot, and see how jazzed you get about playing no-stakes ball in September?
Not happening.
The Golden State Warriors remain deserving title favorites, and many are persuaded DeMarcus Cousins' addition will revitalize the roster, giving the mainstays a new goal to pursue: a ring for Boogie. Despite that, it's hard to believe the Dubs will stop hitting the snooze bar until April.
Granted, a slow start for a team with this much firepower and experience could still include an eight-game winning streak and several blowout victories. But anyone expecting the Warriors to look like title-chasing world-beaters on a consistent basis is in for a disappointment—at least until urgency kicks in after the All-Star break.
The Warriors are bound to rest their stars generously, and the offseason addition of Jonas Jerebko didn't do much to bolster a bench that was much thinner than you might remember. If we assume Andre Iguodala (who won't start trying until the playoffs anyway) and Shaun Livingston both take a step backward as they get deeper into their 30s, there's a good chance Golden State's bench spends the first several months of the year getting roasted.
Remember, Cousins won't be back for at least the first several weeks. He won't help in the early going.
These Warriors know what it takes to win championships, and though it's dangerous to rely on late-season switch-flipping, they also know it worked last year. Plus, the one regular season in which they tore out of the gates and set the record for wins didn't result in a title.
Don't expect greatness from the Warriors until it's absolutely required of them.
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
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Luka Doncic should have been the first pick in the draft, and it seems reasonable to believe a 6'7" wing with point guard skills, preternatural feel and none of the requisite rookie holes in his offensive game will become a superstar.
The skill is undeniable on film, and Dirk Nowitzki has seen enough in person to heap praise (and pressure) on the 19-year-old EuroLeague MVP.
Drink it all in, via Nowitzki's appearance on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas:
"He's incredible with the ball for a big guy. He's unbelievable in pick-and-roll play. His court vision is already unbelievable. I couldn't believe what I saw from a 19/20-year-old. He's a good shooter when he has time, and I think he's going to be great for us for a long, long time.
"He's an incredible talent. His court vision and passing for his size at his age is something I've never seen in my 20 years."
Doncic may be exceptionally advanced for a rookie, but he's still going to be a rookie. More than that, the fanfare attached to Doncic will make him a target. Defensively unproven at the highest level, Doncic is going to get more than his share of tests early on. Every guard in the league will want to attack him on the perimeter, and every big will try to punish him underneath, challenging his competitiveness and fight.
No teenager capable of dominating the second-best league in the world lacks toughness, but it will take time until the rest of the NBA gets finished putting Dallas' prized prospect through the ringer. As Doncic adjusts, perhaps painfully, to life in the NBA, keep faith he'll figure things out—even if there will be plenty of October and November nights when that seems impossible.
