Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 12, 2018

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 08: Jalen Elliott #21 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish celebrates during the game against the Ball State Cardinals at Notre Dame Stadium on September 8, 2018 in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame defeated Ball State 24-16. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Notre Dame enjoyed a 6-0 run against the spread through the middle of last season, but as those spreads begin to retake betting ground the Irish are only 2-5 ATS over their last seven games. Can Notre Dame cover double digits when it hosts Vanderbilt on Saturday afternoon in South Bend?

   

College football point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 13-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 23.8-14.4 Fighting Irish (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

   

Why the Vanderbilt Commodores can cover the spread

The Commodores are 2-0 both straight up and ATS on this young season, after defeating Nevada last week 41-10, covering as 10-point favorites. Vanderbilt scored the first 14 points of the game and it should have been more, with two drives ending deep inside Wolf Pack territory without producing points. The Commodores let Nevada get within 17-10 at the half but scored on their first three possessions out of the locker room to pull away.

On the afternoon, the Commodores out-gained Nevada 468-250, out-rushed the Wolf Pack 198-34 and held a 36/24 advantage in time of possession.

Two weeks ago Vanderbilt opened this season with a 35-7 victory over what should be a good Middle Tennessee team, easily covering as a three-point favorite.

  

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish are also 2-0 this season, after holding off a pesky Ball State outfit last week 24-16. Notre Dame, trying to avoid a letdown following its season-opening victory over Michigan, drove its opening possession of the game 74 yards to a touchdown. The Irish led 14-6 at the half and pushed that to 24-6 late in the third quarter, before allowing the Cardinals to make things semi-interesting by scoring the last 10 points of the game.

Notre Dame would have had an easier time last week if it hadn't missed a field goal, got stopped on downs just outside the Ball State red zone, committed one turnover that resulted in a Cardinals field goal and turned it over two other times inside Ball State territory.

As mentioned above the Irish opened this season with a 24-17 victory over the Wolverines. Notre Dame led that game 14-0 out of the gate and only allowed Michigan to close within one score with two minutes left in the game.

    

Smart betting pick

The Irish played 4-2 ATS last year when favored by between 10 and 20 points. And they did suffer a letdown last week, playing with nowhere near the fire they did against the Wolverines. In expectation of a re-enthused effort this week smart money gives the points with the Irish.

   

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in three of Notre Dame's last four games at home against teams with winning records.

Vanderbilt is 0-5 SU in its last five games on the road after winning their most recent road game.

Vanderbilt is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games on the road.

   

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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