USC Trojans vs. Texas Longhorns Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

The Big 12 is thought to be a better football conference than the Pac-12, but the Pac-12 is actually 6-6 straight up against the Big 12 over the last three seasons and 6-5-1 against the spread. In an interesting early-season inter-conference matchup Southern Cal takes on Texas on Saturday night in Austin.

College football point spread: The Longhorns opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.3-28.5 Trojans (College football picks on every game)

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Why the USC Trojans can cover the spread

The Trojans are looking to bounce back this week, after falling at Stanford last week 17-3. USC only trailed 7-0 late into the second quarter and had the ball at the Cardinal 40-yard line. However, a fumble then led directly to a second Stanford score. The Trojans tried to stay close, driving the opening possession of the second half for a field goal, and later reached the Cardinal 15-yard line, only to throw an interception.

On the night Southern Cal got out-gained by Stanford, but only by a margin of 343-332. The Trojans also made 20 first downs, compared to 13 for the Cardinal. Unfortunately, USC lost the turnover battle 3-0 and managed just three points on six drives that reached at least the Cardinal 40-yard line.

Two weeks ago the Trojans opened this season with a 43-21 victory over UNLV, just missing the cover as 23-point favorites.

Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

The Longhorns pulled off a bounce-back effort last week, topping Tulsa 28-21. Texas turned an interception on the first play of the game into a touchdown and a 7-0 lead, bumped that to 14-0 with another score late in the first quarter and drove 80 yards to another score just before halftime for a 21-0 advantage.

The Longhorns later allowed the Golden Hurricane to get within 21-14 but immediately drove 75 yards in 13 plays for another touchdown. And in the end Texas made three first downs to run the last five minutes off the clock, securing the victory.

On the day the Longhorns piled up 478 yards of offense, 241 on the ground and 237 through the air, and won time of possession by a 34/26 split.

Two weeks ago Texas rallied from a 24-7 deficit against Maryland to take a 29-24 lead, only to give up the last 10 points of the game in a 34-29 loss. The Longhorns reached the Terrapins' 33-yard line in the final minute but threw an interception.

Smart betting pick

Southern Cal beat Texas last year 27-24 in overtime but the Longhorns covered easily that day as 17-point underdogs. Now, the Trojans probably don't have quite the team they had that day, while Texas could be better. Also, USC quarterback JT Daniels hurt his hand against Stanford and his status for this game, at least early in the week, is uncertain. Smart money here hangs with the Longhorns.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of USC's last nine games on the road.

USC is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.

Texas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after consecutive ATS losses.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.