Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

Penn State beat rival Pittsburgh last season but could only manage to push the spread as a heavy favorite on the college football betting lines. And the Panthers probably should have covered that day. Where does the smart money reside for the 99th meeting between these programs Saturday night at Heinz Field?

College football point spread: The Nittany Lions opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.6-24.6 Nittany Lions (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Penn State Nittany Lions can cover the spread

The Nittany Lions opened this 2018 season by outlasting a very game Appalachian State outfit on Saturday 45-38 in overtime. Penn State drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, and after some back-and-forth led 31-17 early in the fourth quarter. The Lions then gave up 21 unanswered points to fall down by a score late but drove 48 yards to a touchdown that forced OT. Penn State then won it with a Trace McSorley touchdown pass in the top of the first overtime period and an end zone interception in the bottom of the frame.

On the afternoon the Nittany Lions ran the ball for 204 yards, as junior running back Miles Sanders, trying to replace departed star Saquon Barkley, gained 91 yards on 19 carries and scored two touchdowns.

Penn State couldn't cover the spread as a 24-point favorite last week, but it is 21-3 SU and 18-6 ATS over its last 24 games.

Why the Pittsburgh Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers opened their 2018 campaign with a 33-7 victory over FCS Albany. Pitt started off with a bang when junior Maurice Ffrench returned the opening kickoff 91 yards for a score. The Panthers then forced a Great Danes turnover on the next possession and turned that into another touchdown, then forced a punt and drove 75 yards for another score and a 19-0 lead. Pitt took a 33-7 advantage into halftime, and the teams combined to play a scoreless second half.

On the day the Panthers ran the ball for 238 yards, while sophomore quarterbacks Kenny Pickett hit on his first 13 passes, threw for two touchdowns and ran for another. Pitt might also have covered the spread as 27-point favorites if not for two turnovers in Albany territory.

Smart betting pick

Penn State beat Pitt last year 33-14, pushing a 19-point spread. However, the Panthers actually outgained the Nittany Lions that day 342-312 and held a 38/22 advantage in time of possession. But two Pitt turnovers basically cost them 14 points, and a safety cost them two more. The Panthers are a better team now than they were then, while Penn State probably isn't as good as it was last year. Smart money here takes Pitt and the points.

College football betting trends

Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last seven games at home in September.

Penn State is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Penn State's last 13 games on the road.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.