Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats: Odds, Betting Pick

Kansas State doesn't play as a home dog often, but when it does, it usually goes well for those who bet the Wildcats.

Going back to 2011, Kansas State is 9-3 against the spread when getting points at home. The Wildcats are getting points on the college football betting lines for Saturday afternoon's meeting with Mississippi State.

College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.4-19.0 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

MSU opened its 2018 season and the post-Dan Mullen era with a 63-6 drubbing of Stephen F. Austin on Saturday in Starkville.

Playing without suspended quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, the Bulldogs scored a touchdown on their first play from scrimmage, led 21-0 after one quarter and 35-3 at the half. They then tacked on four scores in the second half on their way to covering the spread as 47-point favorites.

On the night, Mississippi State outgained the Lumberjacks 618-254, and most of SFA's yardage came in garbage time in the second half.

Bulldogs replacement quarterback Keytaon Thompson threw for 364 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 109 yards and two more scores, while the MSU defense allowed just a pair of field goals.

Fitzgerald, who threw 15 touchdown passes last year and ran for 14 scores, is expected to return to his starting role this week.

Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread

KSU opened its season on Saturday with a 27-24 victory over upstart South Dakota State. The Wildcats trailed the Coyotes at the half 24-12 but won the second half 15-0 to avoid the upset.

For the game, Kansas State outrushed South Dakota State 256-77 and ground out a 38-22 advantage in time of possession. But four Wildcats turnovers and 129 yards worth of penalties hampered their effort all night.

The highlight of the night for Kansas State came with about 12 minutes to go when junior speedster Isaiah Zuber returned a punt 85 yards for a touchdown that pulled the Wildcats to within 24-19.

Five minutes later, Zuber caught a 10-yard touchdown pass for the winning points.

Smart betting pick

Mississippi State is operating with new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and that may entail a learning curve that wasn't evident against a Week 1 FCS foe.

Meanwhile, you can bet head coach Bill Snyder will be working this week to eliminate the mistakes his Kansas State team committed last weekend.

Smart money here bets the Wildcats plus the points.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in three of Mississippi State's last four games on the road.

Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in Week 2.

Kansas State is 39-12 SU in its last 51 games at home.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.