Tale of the Tape: Key Takeaways from Conor McGregor and Khabib's Biggest Moments
October 6. That is the date. Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov will finally meet at UFC 229.
The rivalry will finally come to a head when the cage door closes and the two fighters, who contrast so brilliantly, will get to perform in one of the biggest MMA events to date. But as we look into their past, what can we glean from their prior showings inside the Octagon?
Each man has an impressive resume, and both men offer up a variety of interesting takeaways.
McGregor vs. Nurmagomedov will be broken down in almost every way. Thus, let us, Steven Rondina and Nathan McCarter, offer up additional insights using some of their biggest moments that go beyond just looking at their striking and grappling.
This fight transcends those rudimentary examples of a breakdown. We must look into their psyches and performances when they reached their biggest stages. Travel with us as we look at three key elements for each fighter from past fights.
Khabib vs. RDA
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The MMA world has the bad habit of labeling unproven yet talented fighters, such as Brandon Vera, Roger Huerta, Dennis Siver, Todd Duffee and Uriah Hall. There's a long list of fighters who got fans and pundits to buy in with an early winning streak or a single dazzling win, only to fizzle and fade with time.
Khabib Nurmagomedov, at one point, had the look of one of those. Though there was never any doubt about his wrestling game—it was immediately obvious that he was good—it took a long time to get clarity as to whether that could translate to wins over the cream of the crop rather than the middling veterans and the not-so-hot prospects he sharpened his teeth on.
The opportunity to prove himself came in 2014 when he faced a surging Rafael dos Anjos.
After an up-and-down start to his UFC career, RDA hit his stride in 2012, breaking off an impressive five-fight winning streak that included a hard-fought win over Donald Cerrone. It was a surge that helped transform the Brazilian from a midcard talent to a bona fide contender, and it was one that the one-dimensional Nurmagomedov seemed ill-equipped to halt.
That didn't pan out.
For three rounds, Nurmagomedov imposed his will on Dos Anjos, taking him down, outscrambling him and laying down enough ground-and-pound to make the decision a formality. It was a lopsided fight that removed any doubt over where Nurmagomedov stacked up in the lightweight division.
—Steven Rondina
Conor vs. Mendes
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As we embark on this big matchup, there is a clear striker vs. grappler mindset, and that is why revisiting Conor McGregor's 2015 fight with Chad Mendes should be on everyone's watchlist.
Mendes was one of the featherweight division's biggest challenges in 2015, and he had one of the better wrestling games to help make him that way. Nurmagomedov is a better wrestler with more diverse takedowns, but we are not focusing on McGregor's defense. The focus is on McGregor's comfort in uncomfortable positions.
McGregor didn't panic when he was taken down by Mendes. He wasn't exerting extra energy. He was calm.
That is something that cannot be overstated. He was calm.
If McGregor does get taken down, which is quite likely against Nurmagomedov, he won't feel the need to rush. He won't scramble in a panic and find himself in a worse position. He will take his time and find the right moment to work his game plan. He will defend intelligently.
That was a big factor in his fight against Mendes. McGregor was never concerned or worried about fighting off his back. Patience was a virtue.
—Nathan McCarter
Khabib vs. Horcher
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Nurmagomedov has been viewed by fans and pundits as an elite lightweight for years, but he hasn't really been booked like one. The reason for that, unfortunately, is his extensive injury history.
Since besting Dos Anjos in 2014, Nurmagomedov has fought just four times. It's a painfully slow clip that has robbed him of a significant chunk of his athletic prime and a slew of in-cage opportunities. The worst part of that stretch was a two-year layoff that saw him shelved for all of 2015 and most of 2016 and openly contemplating retirement. It was an ugly time for Nurmagomedov, but he returned in epic fashion.
Initially booked to face Tony Ferguson at UFC on Fox 19, Nurmagomedov instead faced off with UFC newcomer Darrell Horcher. Though that fight was essentially a tuneup for The Eagle, it was a situation wherein he needed to dominate in order to reclaim his spot in the division. And boy, did he ever do that.
Nurmagomedov vs. Horcher played out like a lion attacking an antelope, with Nurmagomedov grabbing hold of him and simply not letting go. The groundwork was smothering, and the punches were uncontested, leading to a merciful stoppage in the second round.
Objectively speaking, this was arguably the least impressive win of Nurmagomedov's UFC career; he was facing an overmatched, underprepared fighter who hadn't done anything of note at that point in his career. When one looks back at how much he had to overcome to return to the cage, however, this win stands as a demonstration of just how tough he is.
—Steven Rondina
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Conor vs. Diaz 2
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Conor McGregor has sat atop the combat sports world for years, and he has somehow managed to consistently find a way to make himself the underdog for each fight. Every mountain the Irish striker climbs is simply an opportunity to spot a higher peak to conquer.
That hasn't necessarily come easy. In 2016, at UFC 196, McGregor was dealt a potentially ruinous blow when he suffered a stunning loss at the hands of Nate Diaz. For most athletes, that would be a wakeup call when it comes to any sort of Icarian endeavor. Another loss to his name could have seriously undermined the popular but still-developing attraction.
McGregor, still featherweight champion at the time, could have simply returned to 145 pounds and taken an easier fight against one of the smaller, aging contenders in his old home.
Instead, he demanded a rematch with Diaz, which came at UFC 202.
The two faced off in a barn-burner. McGregor, similar to the first fight, pounded Diaz in the early going, scoring a pair of knockdowns that hinted at an early victory. Diaz roared back in the middle rounds, however, taking advantage of a less conditioned McGregor and evening up the scorecards.
That led to a dramatic, winner-takes-all fifth round, which saw McGregor catch a second wind, score just enough points to sway the judges and take home a hard-fought majority decision.
While many fans took issue with the decision—and many stranded contenders took issue with the fact that the fight took place—there was one thing that was beyond debate: McGregor, both in and out of the cage, is as steely as they come.
—Steven Rondina
Khabib vs. MJ
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The fight against Michael Johnson did not provide some new look into Nurmagomedov's skills. It was quite typical. So what was the key takeaway? It was his talking while dishing out punishment.
According to Nurmagomedov, per Bloody Elbow's Mookie Alexander, he told Johnson, while laying in ground-and-pound: "I don't want to smash your face, and I already beat you. You have to give up."
While brutalizing his opponent, he talked to him. Rationally. As if they were on a road trip and he were giving him life advice. Nurmagomedov understood he was in no danger of losing the fight. He has an awareness of the situation.
It also illustrates how he can play the mental game.
He won't hurl one-liners at the rate of McGregor, but he won't back away from that side of the promotion or fight. He'll jaw with McGregor. And his calm expressions are more terrifying than typical trash talk. Because he backs it up.
McGregor tries to get inside his opponents' heads in order to get them to make mistakes. Nurmagomedov tells his opponents what the situation is and why they should give up. Two different styles. Both effective.
—Nathan McCarter
Conor vs. Aldo
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"He's powerful, and he's fast. But precision beats power, and timing beats speed. And that's what you saw there."—Conor McGregor
That was one of the first things to come from McGregor's mouth after beating Jose Aldo and becoming the undisputed featherweight king. The quote rings true and also speaks to the intelligence of McGregor. It was a one-shot knockout in 13 seconds. And with that quote, it is obvious he planned for a specific scenario he saw on tape.
There are plenty of coaches and fighters who can watch tape and identify weaknesses or a game plan. Few can do what McGregor did. Execute to perfection.
It is the major takeaway from the Aldo fight. The 13-second shock is all well and good, but recognizing how McGregor got to that point is quite astonishing. His trash talk got Aldo emotional. It got him tight. And when he came forward for the first time, it got him unconscious.
The ability to analyze an opponent's tendencies will be vital to his success against someone such as Nurmagomedov, against whom he may only have a few chances to uncork devastating striking. Nurmagomedov will want to close the distance and get the fight into grappling situations.
Finding the small details and exploiting them is something McGregor can do. The Aldo fight proved that emphatically. When McGregor meets the lightweight champion, it will be interesting to see what he has noticed on film and how it plays out in the Octagon.
—Nathan McCarter
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