College Football Odds Week 1: Picks and Spread Predictions for Top 25 Teams
The wait is over. The first full weekend of the 2018 college football season is here.
Starting Thursday night and running through Labor Day, the football gods will put all 25 ranked teams in action. And, as the best seasons do, this one is skipping the appetizers and diving straight into the entree, with four different contests pitting Top 25 teams against each other—including one collision of top-10 clubs.
We'll lay out the point spreads below, courtesy of OddsShark, and make predictions for every clash, then spotlight three of the juiciest items on the menu.
Week 1 College Football Odds and Predictions
Thursday, August 30
No. 21 UCF (-23.5) at UConn—UCF covers
Friday, August 31
Utah State at No. 11 Michigan State (-23.5)—Michigan State covers
Western Kentucky at No. 4 Wisconsin (-35.5)—Wisconsin covers
San Diego State at No. 13 Stanford (-14)—Stanford wins, doesn't cover
Saturday, September 1
Oregon State at No. 5 Ohio State (-38.5)—Ohio State covers
Florida Atlantic at No. 7 Oklahoma (-21)—Oklahoma wins, doesn't cover
Southern at No. 16 TCU (No Line)
No. 23 Texas (-13.5) at Maryland—Texas covers
Furman at No. 2 Clemson (No Line)
Austin Peay at No. 3 Georgia (No Line)
No. 6 Washington at No. 9 Auburn (-2)—Auburn covers
Appalachian State vs. No. 10 Penn State (-24)—Penn State wins, doesn't cover
Tennessee at No. 17 West Virginia (-10)—West Virginia covers
UNLV at No. 15 USC (-26.5)—USC covers
No. 22 Boise State (-10) at Troy—Troy wins
No. 14 Michigan at No. 12 Notre Dame (-1.5)—Michigan wins outright
Stephen F. Austin at No. 18 Mississippi State (No Line)
Louisville at No. 1 Alabama (-24.5)—Alabama covers
Bowling Green at No. 24 Oregon (-32)—Oregon covers
Sunday, September 2
No. 8 Miami (-3.5) at No. 25 LSU—Miami wins, doesn't cover
Monday, September 3
No. 20 Virginia Tech at No. 19 Florida State (-7.5)—Florida State wins, doesn't cover
No. 6 Washington at No. 9 Auburn
The crown jewel of the opening weekend isn't actually a home game for the Tigers, but rather the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game at Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Even though Auburn has the proximity advantage, it's hard to call these friendly confines when the Tigers lost their two trips there last season—first in the SEC title game to Georgia, then to UCF at the Peach Bowl.
But the third time could be the charm for an Auburn team that returns 13 starters from last season's group, which claimed victories over both national title participants (Alabama and Georgia).
Leading the incumbents is junior quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who passed for 3,158 yards and tallied 18 touchdowns against six interceptions last season.
He'll have his hands full against a Huskies defense that tied for seventh in the FBS with only 5.9 yards allowed per passing attempt, although that group lost three players to the NFL draft (including No. 12 pick defensive tackle Vita Vea).
Washington, of course, has significant firepower of its own in senior quarterback Jake Browning (career 78 touchdowns against 24 interceptions) and senior running back Myles Gaskin (4,443 career scrimmage yards and 49 touchdowns).
However, Auburn's defense is physical and ferocious, returning seven starters from a unit that ranked among the 25 best in yards per game (tied for 13th) and points per game (10th).
This game will come down to the wire, but the Tigers' pseudo-home-field advantage and Stidham's steady hand should be enough to get the win and the cover.
No. 14 Michigan at No. 12 Notre Dame
This tradition-rich rivalry is back in a big way, with both clubs carrying top-15 rankings into this can't-miss contest.
Can Jim Harbaugh right the ship after last season's 8-5 disappointment? Or will the Fighting Irish be able to cover the losses of top-10 picks and fellow offensive linemen Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey and protect their home as well as they did a year ago (6-1)?
Michigan's defense looks tremendous, returning nine starters from a unit that held opponents to a meager 269 yards per tilt (third-best in FBS). It also hopes it has found a difference-maker in Ole Miss transfer quarterback Shea Patterson, who threw for 2,259 yards and 17 scores in seven games last season.
"He's kind of got that winning 'it' factor," Harbaugh said, per ESPN.com's Ryan McGee. "He's a really good thrower and also extremely athletic and smart."
Patterson might have the most eyeballs on him, but it's the Wolverines' defense that shifts this contest slightly in their favor.
Defensive end Rashan Gary's star is already shining. He had 11.5 tackles for loss last season (5.5 sacks) and enters this one as the No. 3 2019 NFL draft prospect on ESPN analyst Todd McShay's board.
Fellow DE Chase Winovich actually bettered Gary in tackles for loss (19.0) and sacks (8.5). Linebacker Devin Bush Jr. is always around the football (95 tackles, 10.0 for loss, 5.5 sacks, one interception).
That's a daunting collection for any offense to deal with. It might be an impossible one for a Notre Dame outfit replacing its top running back, top wide receiver and best two linemen.
No. 20 Virginia Tech at No. 19 Florida State
So much for new Seminoles head coach Willie Taggart easing into his new gig. His squad not only starts against a ranked opponent and ACC rival, it draws a Hokies club with sophomore Josh Jackson back under center after his 2,991-yard, 20-touchdown debut campaign.
That said, Jackson won't be the signal-caller getting all the attention. That distinction goes to FSU junior Deondre Francois, who will see his first regular-season action since tearing the patellar tendon in his left knee during last year's opener.
Back in 2016, the then-redshirt freshman passed for 3,350 yards and 20 touchdowns (against seven picks) and added five more scores on the ground.
"I love his command back there and just how calm he is back there at the quarterback position," Taggart said, per Safid Deen of the Orlando Sentinel. "A lot of that comes with experience and being comfortable but he throws a really good football. And he can run."
Virginia Tech will put Francois to the test. Five starters are back from last season's defense, which ranked 12th in FBS with 305 yards allowed per outing.
Francois has help, though. Sophomore running back Cam Akers totaled 1,141 yards and eight touchdowns from scrimmage. Senior receiver Nyqwan Murray enjoyed a breakout year in 2017, catching 40 passes for 604 yards and four touchdowns.
Virginia Tech has continuity among its coaching staff, home-field advantage and a potentially dominant defense. But Florida State's defensive front will make plenty of noise, and Francois will generate enough offense for the Seminoles to win—but fall short of the cover.
Statistics used courtesy of ESPN.com and Sports-Reference.
