Oregon State Beavers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistAugust 27, 2018

COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 11: Dwayne Haskins #7 of the Ohio State Buckeyes warms up during a game against the Michigan State Spartans at Ohio Stadium on November 11, 2017 in Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State won 48-3. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Ohio State Buckeyes are still national championship contenders, but they're also only 2-6 against the spread over their last eight home games, partly because they're always favored by so much. The Oregon State Beavers, meanwhile, own a 19-game road losing streak, which includes a 5-13-1 skid ATS. So something's gonna give when these two teams open their 2018 campaigns Saturday afternoon at the Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio.

College football point spread: The Buckeyes opened as 38-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 55.4-2.0 Buckeyes (College football picks on every game)

Why the Oregon State Beavers can cover the spread

Oregon State is a tough case to make at the moment, coming off a 1-11 season with another new head coach at the helm. However, the Beavers do get 15 starters back for this season, their first under Jonathan Smith, the former Oregon State quarterback who most recently served (successfully) as Washington's offensive coordinator. Seven starters are back on offense, led by four along the offensive line. And eight starters are back on defense, following the loss of just one of last year's top nine tacklers.

The last time Oregon State was dogged by this many points came last October, when the Beavers actually gave USC a decent game in Los Angeles and covered a 33-point spread.

Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread

The Buckeyes return 12 starters this year from a team that finished 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS and thumped Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl last year. Seven starters are back on offense, led by running back JK Dobbins (1,400 yards rushing last year). Yes, they lose quarterback JT Barrett, but sophomore Dwayne Haskins seems perfectly capable of stepping in and leading this unit to success.

Also, while only five starters are back on a defense that held opponents to 301 yards per game last year, this program is one of those that re-loads, rather than rebuilds.

Smart betting pick

Ohio State is playing under the cloud of coach Urban Meyer's three-game suspension, but will have no problem winning this game.

The only thing that really matters is the margin of victory. Last year the Buckeyes won by at least 30 points seven times, while Oregon State lost by 30 or more five times. Plus the Beavers are playing under a new coaching regime, with new systems, which entails a learning curve. Smart money here gives the points with the Buckeyes.

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in eight of Ohio State's last 11 games.

Oregon State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games in September.

Oregon State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games in Week 1.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.