NBA Rookies Who Won't Live Up to Their Draft Spot Next Season
Lottery picks enter the NBA with pressure and expectations. And there are always a handful who don't live up to their draft spot, particularly as rookies, whether it's due to major adjustments needed or poor fits with the team that took them.
Lower the bar for the following five prospects as they make the jump from college to the pros.
None of them landed in suitable settings for immediate development. A few will require extra time to improve their bodies and/or skill levels.
Marvin Bagley III (Sacramento Kings, PF/C)
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Transitioning from college to the pros will take time and adjustment for Marvin Bagley III.
Aside from back-to-the-basket post-ups against forwards, he relied mostly on his 6'11" size, quickness and bounce at Duke. Though it will continue translating to easy baskets and rebounds, it won't be enough to score in volume or match expected production and efficiency from aย No. 2 overall pick.
Bagley shot 33.3 percent through four summer-league games.ย Lacking length for his height (7'1" wingspan), advanced face-up moves and consistent shooting range, heย struggled to create quality looks for himself in the half court.
In Sacramento, Bagley won't have many veteran or star teammates to take pressure off, meaning he'll have to work for his baskets as opposed to taking it slowly and playing to his strengths.ย And after a poor defensive season as a freshman, it's not reasonable to expect he'll suddenly figure it out.
The draft's first pick (Deandre Ayton) and third pick (Luka Doncic) could battle it out for Rookie of the Year. Don't bet on the No. 2 pick competing in the race.
Stat predictions: 12.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 0.4 BPG,ย .430 percent FG, .230 percent 3PT
Trae Young (Atlanta Hawks, PG)
2 of 5
Point guards typically need longer to adjust, but Trae Young could be in for an extra-difficult season.
The Atlanta Hawks didn't set him up for success. They're unsurprisingly projected to finish with the NBA's worst record, according to Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook managerย Jeff Sherman. Young will be looking at Jeremy Lin, Taurean Prince and John Collins as his top-three supporting weapons. Defenses will key in on the Hawks' rookie ball-handler, who had trouble scoring efficiently at Oklahoma once opponents knew what they were facing.
Still,ย it's creating separation that could be his greatest challenge. Young lacks size (6'2"), length (6'3" wingspan), blow-by jets and the explosiveness to finish. Last year, he made just four jump shots all season that weren't threes, and he only shot 49.6 percent at the rim, perย Synergy Sports.
His pull-ups will likely have to come from 25-plus-feet out, being that he struggles to create open looks for himself in the mid-range. It also seems inevitable that he'll have difficulty converting among the trees in the paint.
The more energy Young spent on offense in college, the weaker he was defensively, a trend that's likely to continue against bigger and faster NBA point guards.
The production may be there for Young, assuming he's given a green light to play through mistakes. But it wouldn't be surprising if he graded out as one of the league's least efficient players.
Stat predictions: 13.5 PPG, 5.8 APG,ย 3.0 TO, .360 percent FG, .320 percent 3PT
Mohamed Bamba (Orlando Magic, C)
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Despite the Orlando Magic's logjam up front, it's tough to blame them for selecting Mohamed Bamba using best-player-available logic. But how is this going to work?
The Magic still have Nikola Vucevic, and they re-signed Aaron Gordon. Jonathan Isaac looked healthy and impressive in summer league, ready to take on a bigger role.
Where does that leave Bamba? All four of these bigs can't play together. Even if Orlando deals Vucevic at some point, a Gordon-Isaac-Bamba trio seems clunky.
Based on the current roster, Bamba is only looking at part-time minutes as a rookie. And when given time, he won't have a quality point guard to set him up or great spacing in general. Orlando ranked No. 28 in three-point percentage last year and lost Mario Hezonja in free agency.
Bamba also lacks strength and overall polish to begin with. He's going to need a year or two to adjust to a more physical NBA and improve his jump shot and post game.
Long term, he's an exciting prospect. But don't count on Bamba providing No. 6 overall value as a rookie.
Stat predictions:ย 8.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG, .470 percent FG
Mikal Bridges (Phoenix Suns, SF)
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The Phoenix Suns put serious stock in Mikal Bridges, tradingย the No. 16 pick (Zhaire Smith)ย and an unprotected 2021 first-rounder from the Miami Heat for him.
Will he even get a chance to contribute as a rookie? Devin Booker plays 34.5 minutes per game, Josh Jackson's development is a priority, and TJ Warren is back on the second season of his four-year extension. Plus, the Suns paid Trevor Ariza $15 million for 2018-19.
Bridges couldn't even find scoring or playmaking opportunities in summer league, where he totaled 22 field-goal attemptsโonly six of which were twosโand three assists in 100 minutes.
When given time, expect a lot of standing around the perimeter for a prospect the Suns acquired for two valued assets.
Stat predictions: 5.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, .420 percent FG, .350 percent 3PT
Jerome Robinson (Los Angeles Clippers, SG)
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The Los Angeles Clippers used one of their two lottery picks on shooting guard Jerome Robinson. Then they re-signed Avery Bradley to join Lou Williams in the backcourt, practically squashing any chance for their new rookie to play and gain NBA experience.
The Clippers also bring back Patrick Beverley and Milos Teodosic after trading up for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, meaning Robinson, who ranked in the 94th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler at Boston College, per Synergy Sports, won't see any reps at point guard, either.
Throw Sindarius Thornwell into the mix too, and when will Robinson ever get an opportunity? It's tough to see any coming his way in 2018-19.
Stat predictions: 4.4 PPG, 1.2 APG, .440 percent FG, .330 percent 3PT
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