10 NBA Free Agents Who Would Be Foolish to Change Teams This Summer
It's hard to believe the NBA free-agent landscape has changed so much from the wild, spend-drunk days of 2016. Back then, as the salary cap spiked and formerly hamstrung squads were flush with cash, any player with the ability to get onto the market was under a professional imperative to make himself available.
The money and the breadth of options were too good to pass up.
Things have changed.
The biggest names can still expect max salaries and interest from multiple suitors—even if the ones listed here should stick with the good fits they've already got. For others, the landscape is more ominous. Turning down player options is a risk when so few clubs are in a position to buy, and restricted free agents can't assume bloated offer sheets will be flying in from all corners of the league.
This, then, is an unusual free-agent summer—one that isn't really all that free. Several players who would have sprinted to market in the past must instead consider staying put until conditions improve.
In many cases, the grass is greener on this side.
Chris Paul, PG, Unrestricted
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Chris Paul will go down as one of the three or four best point guards to ever play the position, but that doesn't mean multiyear max offers are floating around for him this summer.
At age 33 and coming off yet another postseason run shortened by injury, Paul doesn't appeal to rebuilders or bottom-feeders. At the same time, he won't have interest in anyone outside the tight circle of serious title contenders. Those constraints narrow the free-agent field.
If the Houston Rockets lowball Paul, perhaps arguing that new owner Tilman Fertitta wasn't the guy who green-lit last year's trade and didn't commit to a max contract this summer, maybe things get interesting. But assuming Houston is willing to give CP3 a max salary for at least three seasons (perhaps with a partial guarantee on the fourth), it makes no sense for Paul to leave—not if he wants to stay in prime position to win a ring.
Concern with optics means the president of the players union probably can't sign a below-market deal. That could make negotiations a bit tense. But Paul can't expect to earn more or win more anyplace else.
Plus, if he leaves, who's going to recruit LeBron James?
Kevin Durant, F, Player Option
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When a general manager, theoretically the player's adversary in contract talks, willingly relinquishes all bargaining power, it's a good sign the player should stay put. That measure of control is hard to find, and Kevin Durant has it with the Golden State Warriors.
GM Bob Myers is rightly allowing KD to name his price.
"He's earned that, to kind of lay out the terms," Myers told reporters. "He can do whatever he wants. That shouldn't be a long negotiation."
Durant, a back-to-back champ and two-time Finals MVP with the Warriors, left $10 million on the table last summer to facilitate the signings of Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston. Not only does his game dictate a max salary for as long as the Dubs can pay it, Durant is also due to be made whole for his 2017 sacrifice.
KD won't find a better basketball situation, and with the Warriors happily beholden to his demands, there's no sense in even considering an exit. There's no improving on this situation.
Nikola Jokic, C, Team Option
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Barring an unforeseen twist in negotiations, Nikola Jokic will sign a new deal with the Denver Nuggets that'll make him very, very rich.
Denver declined its team option on Jokic for the 2018-19 season, making the 23-year-old center a restricted free agent. In theory, that exposes him to the market, though not in a way that decreases his chances of staying. The Nuggets could match any offer sheet he signs, but it won't even come to that.
According to Yahoo Sports' Shams Charania, a five-year, $146.5 million agreement is all but certain.
In addition to the financial security, Denver offers Jokic a system that maximizes his skills as a scorer and offensive fulcrum. Perhaps the best passing big man in the game, Jokic could hardly ask for better complements than Jamal Murray and Gary Harris. Those two zip around the floor, tying defenses in knots and giving Jokic endless passing dime-up opportunities. And now that Denver has added high-risk, high-reward rookie Michael Porter Jr., the long-term picture is even brighter.
Jokic is the type of transformative offensive talent who could vault almost any team into the top levels of scoring efficiency, but he'd be hard-pressed to find a better situation than the one he's in—and that's without considering the financials.
Clint Capela, C, Restricted
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Equally competent as a switch defender and rim-protector, Clint Capela is the rare conventionally-sized big man capable of staying on the floor in the Rockets' demanding defensive scheme. That he's also an elite lob-catcher who only seems to be improving means he's ideally suited for Houston's demands on both ends.
In a breakout 2017-18, Capela averaged 13.9 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game (all career bests) while leading the league in field-goal percentage. He also outplayed Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert in back-to-back playoff series.
He's the kind of center worth paying the tax for, in other words, and Rockets ownership isn't going to blink when that eventuality arises.
"I have no problem paying luxury tax if I truly think that it truly gives me the chance to win the championship next year," Fertitta told USA Today's Sam Amick in February. Given that the Rockets pushed Golden State to a seventh game in the conference finals, it's fair for Fertitta to assume his team has a chance to win the championship next year.
In addition, Fertitta expressed a desire to keep Capela as recently as May.
If the Phoenix Suns come swooping in with a max offer sheet, expect the Rockets to match. That'll keep Capela in an optimal situation through the prime of his career, most of which figures to be spent making deep postseason runs.
DeAndre Jordan, C, Player Option
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It's really about the math with DeAndre Jordan.
Opting out of the last year of his current deal would leave $24.1 million on the table, and it seems unlikely he'll recoup that average annual value on a new contract.
Think of it this way: If DJ opts in and sticks with the Los Angeles Clippers, he can still hit next year's market (which figures to have more cash in circulation) and sign something like a three-year, $40 million contract. That's an average value of $16 million over the next four seasons (including his opt-in this year), which he'd be hard-pressed to beat by opting out.
Can he get a four-year deal worth $16 million annually this summer? Or even one that'd pay him $48 million over three years? In the age of the marginalized center, a 29-year-old, athletically dependent, non-spacing, overrated defender doesn't figure to generate that kind of interest.
In the unlikely event the Dallas Mavericks come calling with something in the neighborhood of $60 million guaranteed, the calculus changes. Otherwise, Jordan should opt in, stay put and wait for next year.
DeMarcus Cousins, C, Unrestricted
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If you hooked the New Orleans Pelicans front office up to a polygraph, it's hard to know whether they'd really want DeMarcus Cousins to stick around—especially at a high price.
This isn't about what's best for the Pels, though. This is about how Cousins can make the smartest decision for his own future. In this scenario, staying in New Orleans is his best bet.
There may not be many big-money offers out there for a hulking center coming off a devastating Achilles tear—particularly one with little history of contributing to winning teams, a dubious locker room reputation and conditioning issues. The Pelicans will probably be motivated to keep Cousins because some (Anthony Davis, perhaps?) might view letting him walk as a sign the organization isn't committed to winning in the near term.
It's entirely possible the market for Boogie is so tepid that he'll have similarly crummy offers from both New Orleans and the league at large. If it comes down to equal money, leaving would make sense. The Pels aren't going to be top-tier contenders anytime soon.
But if New Orleans presents a two-plus-one (team option on the third year) for around $70 million, Cousins should jump at it. He won't see anything that lucrative from another team, and his health situation demands he lock in as much guaranteed cash as possible.
Marcus Smart, G, Restricted
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Zach LaVine, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon and Julius Randle should all explore their options; Marcus Smart is a restricted free agent we'd advise to stand pat.
Smart is a perfect fit with the contending Boston Celtics because of the way his defense and hustle align with the tones of playoff basketball. He can switch, and he can run a pick-and-roll, and if his jumper ever becomes reliable, he'll be a star-quality two-way difference-maker. In light of Kyrie Irving's health and future with the team (he's beginning the final year of his deal and won't sign an extension), it's also possible Smart's role with the Celtics could increase significantly in the near future.
Price may be a sticking point.
"To be honest, I'm worth more than $12-14 million," Smart told ESPN.com's Jackie MacMullan in May. "Just for the things I do on the court that don't show up on the stat sheet. You don't find guys like that. I always leave everything on the court, every game. Tell me how many other players can say that. ... I'm not sure you can put a price on that."
MacMullan also said on the podcast The Hoop Collective (h/t Uproxx) that Smart would simply play for the highest bidder.
It's difficult to imagine a multiyear deal worth $12-14 million (let alone more) is out there for Smart. If there is, the Celtics would have to take a deep breath and think hard before matching. If the money's close at all, Smart should remain with Boston because of the fit and the opportunities it'll afford him to compete in meaningful games.
A few extra million isn't worth trading this Celtics situation for, say, the one in Sacramento.
Kyle Anderson, F, Restricted
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The San Antonio Spurs love overpaying to keep their own, as evidenced by 2017 deals for Pau Gasol (three years, $48 million) and Patty Mills (four years, $50 million). If you want to go deeper, consider the three-year, $43 million contract extension they gave a 32-year-old Tony Parker in 2014.
This is all great news for Kyle Anderson.
Anderson ranked second among small forwards with a Defensive Real Plus-Minus of plus-3.20 last year. His length and smarts make him a far more useful stopper than his plodding feet should allow. While his game may not need San Antonio's slow pace and finely calibrated system to work, the conditions certainly help Anderson get the most out of an unusual skill set.
Rudy Gay opted out. Kawhi Leonard isn't quite gone yet, but it seems inevitable he will be soon. And we know the Spurs won't have him in 2019. That means Anderson's status as an interim starter will get an upgrade, probably sooner than later.
If past precedent is any guide, Anderson should expect the most money from the Spurs, who can match whatever he signs elsewhere anyway. More than that, the system fits. There's no guarantee another team could get as much out of Anderson's game as San Antonio has.
Enes Kanter, C, Player Option
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Enes Kanter is due $18.6 million from the New York Knicks in 2018-19. If he's lucky, he might get that much on a three-year deal in this market.
Suffice it to say, Kanter would be wise to exercise his player option and remain in New York.
Still just 26, Kanter averaged 14.1 points and 11.0 rebounds in only 25.8 minutes per game last year. Kyle O'Quinn is opting out of his deal, and Kristaps Porzingis is rehabbing a torn ACL, so there figure to be more minutes available under new head coach David Fizdale. He has already encouraged Kanter to get up some three-point shots in anticipation of a larger 2018-19 role.
"With Coach Fizdale, I want to stay more,’" Kanter told Marc Berman of the New York Post. "I know his mentality, I know how much freedom he gives to his players. It's going to help my decision for sure. I think he's going to change a lot of things. He seems like a relationship with him is like a friendship relationship. It's not a player-coach relationship. I talked to him for two hours and it gives you so much confidence."
The money just isn't there for Kanter this summer. If he seizes this opportunity with the Knicks under Fizdale (remember how Marc Gasol's offense exploded when Fiz took over the Memphis Grizzlies?), he could take advantage of a friendlier 2019 free-agent period.
Joe Harris, G/F, Unrestricted
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Maybe Joe Harris' development with the Brooklyn Nets would have happened anywhere. Maybe his transition from an afterthought barely worth rostering to "elite scoring wing" had nothing to do with the environment. Maybe we're mistaking correlation for causation.
But maybe not.
Among wings last year, only Kyle Korver posted a higher effective field-goal percentage than Harris, who drilled every open three he saw and flashed enough playmaking in the pick-and-roll to round out a blossoming offensive game.
The Nets empower their players to fire away from deep to a Rockets-like extent. That approach has clearly benefitted Harris, who hits unrestricted free agency at a time when top-tier shooting has never been more valuable. As tempting as it might be for him to test his growth on a better team, there's a great case for sticking around.
Harris knows he fits with Brooklyn. And since the Nets are one of few teams with a decent amount of cap space, they should be able to offer him more money than just about anyone.
It'd probably be a mistake to pay Harris, still a role player despite his remarkable strides, more than the $8.6 million mid-level exception. But that modest figure would represent a five-fold increase on the $1.5 million he made in 2017-18.
The Nets are trending up, their style is perfect for Harris and they can pay him what he's worth. Sometimes, these things aren't complicated.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass or NBA.com unless otherwise specified. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
