Where Will Trae Young Land and Other Major Questions Post-NBA Draft Lottery
Now that the 2018 NBA draft order is set, it's easier to have a conversation about the main storylines regarding the lottery, its teams and the prospects they will be looking at.
Which team will wind up with Oklahoma's Trae Young, who is arguably the most polarizing prospect in this year's draft class?
The Phoenix Suns have a tough call to make at No. 1. Other teams must decide whether to draft the best player available to them or prioritize roster needs.
Here we have pinpointed the major talking points that have emerged since Tuesday night's lottery.
Where Will Trae Young Land?
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Trae Young's stock watch wins out as the most talked-about debate of the 2018 NBA draft. And with the lottery complete, we can have a more informed discussion about where he ends up.
Possibility No. 1: Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks may consider Young at No. 3 once Luka Doncic and Deandre Ayton are off the board. Dennis Schroder discussing other teams he'd want to play for should only fuel more speculation. With three first-round picks, the Hawks should be in complete rebuild mode, and Schroder doesn't stand out as a must-have piece moving forward.
The Hawks could replace him with Young at No. 3 and then look at wings or bigs—such as Missouri's Jontay Porter, Creighton's Khyri Thomas, USA's Mitchell Robinson, Texas Tech's Zhaire Smith or Villanova's Donte DiVincenzo—at No. 19 and No. 30.
Even if Atlanta does keep Schroder, the Hawks' No. 2 scorer is Taurean Prince, and their No. 2 assist man is Kent Bazemore. Young adds something to the mix either way.
It seems more likely that they'll view Duke's Marvin Bagley III, Texas' Mohamed Bamba or Michigan State's Jaren Jackson Jr. as safer, higher-upside picks who would also fill needs.
Possibility No. 2. Orlando Magic
Since the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks figure to go after bigs, Young is most likely to land with the Magic at No. 6. Orlando passed on a potential point guard of the future in Dennis Smith Jr. last year and then traded Elfrid Payton to Phoenix for a second-round pick at the trade deadline.
Assuming the Magic retain restricted free agent Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac is healthy for 2018-19, the team doesn't have room to play another power forward or center. Unless Orlando falls in love with Villanova's Mikal Bridges, who'll turn 22 years old before the season, Young makes too much sense. He'd fill a glaring hole and give this roster needed scoring and playmaking from the backcourt.
Possibility No. 3. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls will only take Young if they believe he's the clear-cut best player on the board. They seem invested and confident in Kris Dunn after acquiring him in a trade for former franchise player Jimmy Butler. Chicago is likely to stick with Dunn at point guard and fill one of its holes at small forward (Mikal Bridges) or center (Wendell Carter Jr.).
Possibility No. 4. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets)
It's tough to picture Young slipping to the New York Knicks at No. 9 unless the Cavaliers view Collin Sexton as the superior prospect. They need another playmaker with George Hill and Jordan Clarkson each averaging fewer than three assists per game. Sexton's 3.6-to-2.8 assist-to-turnover ratio and 33.6 percent three-point shooting this past season, plus LeBron James' public support for Young, should give the Oklahoma point guard the edge here.
Cleveland's other target could be Missouri's Michael Porter Jr., though if Young is available at No. 8, Porter probably will be long gone.
Phoenix Suns at No. 1: Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic?
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The No. 1 overall pick is often obvious, but that isn't the case in 2018, particularly with the Phoenix Suns atop the board.
They appear to be in a can't-lose situation with multiple quality options who can each fill a need.
The presumed favorite is Deandre Ayton, since the Suns could use a center and he just averaged 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds in Phoenix's backyard at Arizona. At 7'1" and 250 pounds with immaculate physical tools, plenty of athleticism and a high skill level, Ayton seems to offer both safety and All-Star upside, mostly for his offense.
Defense is the main weakness on his scouting report. And with a core built around Devin Booker, Josh Jackson, Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender, the Suns could have reservations about adding a center not known for his rim protection after they finished last in defensive efficiency this past season.
The Suns have to ask how confident they are in Ayton's scoring potential and room to improve defensively. Any doubt may lead to Luka Doncic being the pick, especially given the team's opportunity to sign a free-agent big man like Clint Capela (restricted) or Nerlens Noel (unrestricted).
It's also impossible to ignore who Phoenix just hired as its new head coach. Igor Kokoskov coached Doncic to a gold medal over the summer at EuroBasket, where the 6'8" Slovenian combo guard averaged 14.3 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists at 18 years old.
The two have already established a relationship, and Kokoskov knows how to use the mismatch playmaker.
Though Ayton was regularly the best player on the floor in college, his Wildcats underachieved all season, and Buffalo smashed them in their first game of the NCAA tournament. Meanwhile, Doncic has played an integral part in Real Madrid's run to the Euroleague Final Four (again).
And as much as the Suns need a center, they could also use a passer and a three-point shot-maker after they finished 29th in assists and 30th in three-point percentage this past season.
Like with Ayton, defense is also a concern for Doncic, as he will have trouble staying in front of opposing point guards. Next to Booker in the backcourt, it's fair to ask whether the Suns will have enough speed.
There is a case to be made for and against each of Phoenix's top options. We're projecting Doncic at No. 1 at the start of the process, but he isn't cemented in. The Suns have plenty of homework to do over the next five weeks.
Do the Hawks Take a Big Man or Replace Dennis Schroder with Trae Young?
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With Ayton and Doncic likely locked into the top two, the second part of the 2018 draft starts with the Atlanta Hawks.
While they should look at Young as a potential replacement for Schroder, they'll likely go big with one of Bagley, Jackson, Bamba or Porter.
Bagley is one of the most explosive athletes in the draft. He also stands 6'11" and averaged 21.0 points and 11.1 rebounds while shooting 64.7 percent inside the arc and 39.7 percent from three this past season.
Bagley comes off as a low-risk, high-upside option. Between him and John Collins, the Hawks could have one of the NBA's bounciest frontcourt duos.
Depending on how much Atlanta takes fit into account, Jackson or Bamba may have the edge for their defensive potential next to Collins, who's a more limited defender. Bagley struggled throughout the season guarding both the perimeter and the basket, as he blocked only 2.6 percent of opponents' two-point attempts.
Meanwhile, Bamba finished third in the country in blocks per game, and Jackson was the only player to average at least three rejections in fewer than 25 minutes. Though neither player is as fluid offensively as Bagley, Bamba and Jackson still flashed signs between their post games and jump shots.
The Hawks also could use an additional scorer and shot-maker in the lineup, which would point to them considering Porter. However, he's risky at No. 3 after he underwent back surgery and played only 53 total minutes as a freshman.
For now, we project the Hawks not to overthink about fit or need. Instead, they'll view Bagley as the best player available and their preference at No. 3.
Chicago Bulls: Wing or Big?
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Let's assume Young goes to the Orlando Magic at No. 6 and the Chicago Bulls don't have to think about whether to draft a point guard. With a glaring hole at small forward and Robin Lopez entering the final year of his contract, Chicago would presumably focus on 3s and 5s.
The name with upside is Porter, a 6'10" face-up scorer who entered the year viewed as a No. 1 overall candidate before he had back surgery and missed the majority of the season. Based on his scouting reports from high school, the Bulls may view Porter as the best long-term prospect due to his size and offensive skills that mirror Brandon Ingram's.
However, Porter showed no burst upon returning from his injury, which makes him a risky selection at No. 7. In today's league, he also projects as more of a 4, which is Lauri Markkanen's best position.
The Bulls could lean toward Duke's Wendell Carter Jr. as the best prospect available, and one who'd fit the lineup easier. The 6'10", 259-pound big with 7'3" length can play center next to Markkanen, who's more perimeter-oriented. Meanwhile, Carter blocked 3.1 shots per 40 minutes and distinguished himself with polished post moves and a physical rebounding presence.
Flashes of shooting (19-of-46 from three-point range) only help strengthen comparisons to Al Horford, who's similarly heavier-footed but is skilled and smart enough to compensate.
Mikal Bridges is another attractive candidate for his three-ball (43.5 percent) and defense between Markkanen and Zach LaVine. The soon-to-be 22-year-old wing likely could start right away in Chicago, where the Bulls would otherwise be looking at less inspiring options like Paul Zipser or Denzel Valentine.
Given the rarity and value of three-and-D wings, we suspect they'll favor Bridges. It may be easier for the Bulls to find a competent big in free agency.
This decision will come down to who Chicago sees as the best player three years down the road. Either way, the Bulls can exit the draft with a promising prospect to plug a hole.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Keep the No. 8 Pick or Trade It?
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With the Brooklyn Nets' first-round pick, the Cleveland Cavaliers will select at No. 8, where there may not be an obvious star.
Should the Cavaliers stay put and hope for Young or Porter to slide to them? And if they get one of the two, is Cleveland confident either can move the team's needle or convince LeBron James to stay?
Both prospects also may be selected within the top seven, which would leave Cleveland with Bridges and Carter as the next-most likely options.
The Cavaliers may look to trade this pick for a veteran who can help them get back to the top of the East. For instance, Hassan Whiteside could be an interesting trade target to improve a defense that ranked 29th in efficiency during the regular season.
James needs help, and whichever rookie the Cavaliers choose at No. 8 overall seems unlikely to offer enough.
Who Do the Knicks Take If Young, Porter and Mikal Bridges Are Gone?
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The New York Knicks need to continue amassing young talent. But at No. 9, there may not be a distinguishable best player available, especially if Young, Mikal Bridges and Porter are off the board.
They'll likely take one of those three if they're available, but all three are gone by the Knicks' pick in our first post-lottery mock draft.
If the real draft plays out that way, what does New York do?
The first name to monitor is Michigan State's Miles Bridges, who has plenty of explosiveness and averaged at least two three-point makes in each of his two collegiate seasons. He projects as a fit alongside Kristaps Porzingis or Enes Kanter playing small-ball 4, as he's capable of stretching the floor and guarding around the perimeter.
Whether his game and value take off will come down to how much improvement he makes as a shot-creator and scorer off the dribble. But with Porzingis potentially out for much or all of the 2018-19 season, Bridges would have every opportunity to start and play big minutes as a rookie.
Carter should earn consideration as a best-player-available option New York can pair with Porzingis. The Knicks could view him as interchangeable between the 4 and 5, assuming he continues to develop his jump shot and proves he's mobile enough to slide his feet.
A strong post player, passer and rebounder with standout NBA tools, Carter jumps out as a low-risk, high-floor prospect. However, he's a mostly older-school, back-to-the-basket big, which does raise questions about his ceiling.
Alabama's Collin Sexton is another name to watch for his ability to put pressure on defenses as an attacking-style guard, something Frank Ntilikina struggles to do without blow-by burst. The Knicks would also value Sexton's fire and competitiveness. But after he averaged 3.6 assists to 2.8 turnovers this past season, he falls more under the category of a scorer than a point guard who coaches would want running the offense and making decisions.
Texas Tech's Zhaire Smith represents an out-of-the-box or trade-down option. A 6'5" wing who's raw offensively, Smith has generated buzz for his explosive leaping, defensive versatility and potential as a shooter and passer. He'd be a project to develop over the long haul, but the Knicks might value his athleticism, energy and toughness right away.
Who Slips to Philadelphia at No. 10?
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Scouts and mock drafts have a consensus top nine: Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Jackson, Bamba, Young, Porter, Mikal Bridges and Carter. But every June, one player unexpectedly slips.
Last year, Malik Monk dropped to No. 11 after he was projected inside of the top 10 throughout the season.
Who will fall to the Philadelphia 76ers at No. 10? Bridges is the oldest and could drop due to perceived limitations with regard to his upside. Porter has the injury concerns with his back. And Carter, an average athlete, is most comfortable in the post, which may make him less attractive to teams in today's NBA.
The Sixers ultimately could take whichever player slides as the best available. Otherwise, they're likely looking at Sexton, Kentucky's Kevin Knox or Miami's Lonnie Walker IV.
They each justify looks as high as No. 10, and all three would bring something of need to Philadelphia. With JJ Redick and Marco Belinelli entering unrestricted free agency, Sexton and Walker would work as scorers from the shooting guard position. And Knox would give the Sixers a more versatile wing scorer compared to Robert Covington.
For now, we have the Sixers opting for Walker, who's bound to impress during the predraft process with his physical tools, explosive athleticism and shot-making.
Do the Charlotte Hornets Use the Draft to Blow Up the Roster?
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The book on building a franchise suggests this is the time for the Charlotte Hornets to explore resetting. Stuck between tanking and competing and armed with a No. 11 pick that's unlikely to give them a star, the Hornets could try blowing up their roster and retooling through the draft.
With each one of Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard and Jeremy Lamb entering the final year of his contract, will the Hornets look to deal them for younger players and draft picks?
Walker should draw the most attention, though it's unclear how much trade value he has, particularly since teams would want to know whether he was interested in re-signing with them in 2019.
The Magic, Bulls, Cavaliers and Knicks are teams in the Nos. 6-9 range who could seek to upgrade their point guard position. For Charlotte, it's at least worth making calls to gauge the interest from general managers who have top-10 picks and/or other assets that could pay off long term.
Otherwise, the Hornets are either hoping for someone like Carter to slip, or they're settling on Sexton, Miles Bridges, Knox or Walker.
How Do the Clippers Use Their Two Lottery Picks?
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The Los Angeles Clippers own the Detroit Pistons' first-round pick, giving them two in the lottery.
They could look to package them together to try and move up into the Nos. 8-10 range if they love a particular player. Perhaps the Cavaliers or Knicks would be amenable to trading down if it netted them an extra first-rounder.
But in all likelihood, the Clippers will stay put and select two top-13 prospects, particularly since Danilo Gallinari (age 29) and Lou Williams (age 31) are the only two Clippers players with guaranteed contracts for 2019-20.
Sexton will be an option to take over at point guard. Miles Bridges could be viewed as the best player available. Texas A&M's Robert Williams, an explosive finisher and shot-blocker, could replace DeAndre Jordan. Knox and Walker would give them longer-term scoring prospects. And Smith could be a unique, defensive project.
The Clippers will have plenty of options and flexibility to improve their roster on June 21.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference or NBA.com.
