Predicting the Winner of Each College Football Conference in 2018
Alabama won last year's College Football Playoff without even winning the SEC title, but the Crimson Tide are the favorites to take that conference championship this coming season.
Good luck telling that to fans at Georgia, Auburn or Mississippi State, though, as they all have teams capable of strong seasons.
But we're not just talking SEC football today. In fact, we'll be talking about all 10 FBS conferences, projecting the champion and top challenger of each league.
Picks are based on a combination of roster construction and conference schedule. In most cases, the latter detail was more important.
American: UCF Knights
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Player to Watch: McKenzie Milton
Two of McKenzie Milton's favorite targets from last season—Tre'Quan Smith and Jordan Akins—were selected in the third round of the NFL draft. His former head coach is now at Nebraska. But there's still a lot of hope for UCF because of the most efficient QB in the nation not named Baker Mayfield.
Milton threw for 4,037 yards and 37 touchdowns, and he more than held his own in the Peach Bowl win over Auburn. This dual-threat quarterback should keep UCF nationally relevant for at least one more year.
Biggest Threat: Memphis
UCF beat Memphis both during the regular season and in the AAC championship game last year; however, the Tigers—who get the Knights at home Oct. 13—put up 55 points in the latter game and didn't lose to anyone else during the regular season.
Memphis has some massive holes to fill after the departures of QB Riley Ferguson, WR Anthony Miller and LB Genard Avery, but there are still outstanding playmakers in Darrell Henderson, Patrick Taylor Jr. and Tony Pollard.
Why They'll Win: Limited competition
Aside from perhaps Conference USA, the gap between first and second in the AAC is the widest of any conference heading into 2018. Memphis is a borderline top-50 team, while UCF will probably sneak into the top 20 of the preseason AP poll.
The next-best team in the league is Houston, and the Knights don't even play the Cougars during the regular season. After that is Navy, and UCF gets the Midshipmen at home. Milton and Co. probably won't go undefeated again, but that's a more likely outcome than UCF failing to at least win the East division of the AAC.
ACC: Clemson Tigers
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Player to Watch: Tee Higgins
Clemson's defensive line is going to be out of this world. And regardless of whether Kelly Bryant or Trevor Lawrence wins the QB battle this fall, the Tigers are in fantastic shape in that department. Deep threat Tee Higgins is the X-factor who could really put Clemson over the top.
With Deon Cain and Ray-Ray McCloud gone, Higgins—who averaged 20.3 yards per reception as a true freshman—should be headed for a massive spike in targets. He just might lead the ACC in receiving yards.
Biggest Threat: Miami
The Tigers won't face the Hurricanes during the regular season, but that's probably who they will draw in the ACC championship game for a second consecutive year. Turnover-forcing defense will be the calling card of the Hurricanes once again, as almost all of their linebackers and secondary are back for another year. And with WR Ahmmon Richards returning from injury, the offense should be better than it was last year.
The biggest regular-season threat is Florida State, as Clemson plays at Tallahassee in October. But the 'Noles play road games against Miami, NC State and Louisville, and they have a brutal home opener against Virginia Tech. Even if Florida State beats Clemson, its chances of going 7-1 in ACC play and winning the Atlantic division are slim.
Why They'll Win: Experience and momentum
Clemson has won the ACC (and played in the College Football Playoff) in each of the last three years, and this might be Dabo Swinney's most talented roster to date. Stopping the Tigers from scoring will be hard. Moving the ball against this defense will be even harder.
They might slip up once somewhere along the way, but a fourth consecutive postseason battle between Alabama and Clemson feels imminent.
Big 12: Oklahoma Sooners
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Player to Watch: Rodney Anderson
Led by Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma threw for more than 5,000 yards and 47 touchdowns last season. But the Sooners had one heck of a backfield tandem, too, led by Rodney Anderson. The redshirt sophomore entered the season with one carry for five yards in his career, but he averaged 6.2 yards per tote en route to 1,161 yards and 13 TDs.
Anderson also played a significant role in the passing game with 17 catches for 281 yards and five more scores. Look for the Sooners to lean even more heavily on his shoulders this year, potentially resulting in close to 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
Biggest Threat: West Virginia
While the other four power five conferences have a fierce challenger who could realistically win the league and contend for a national championship, trying to sort out the Big 12's No. 2 team is probably best done with darts and a blindfold.
Maybe you prefer TCU or Texas in this spot, but give me what might be the most prolific offense in the country. With QB Will Grier and WRs David Sills V and Gary Jennings back in the mix, the Mountaineers should score at will.
Why They'll Win: It's what they do
Most of the players on this year's roster were either infants or embryos in 2000, but the fact remains that Oklahoma has won at least a share of 11 of the last 18 Big 12 titles, including three straight. That's not quite as ridiculous as the 14-year run that Kansas has been on in men's basketball, but at this point, you better have a darn good reason for picking against Oklahoma in this conference.
Unless you're unreasonably skeptical about Kyler Murray's ability to take over at quarterback, there isn't a good reason. This is clearly still the team to beat.
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Big Ten: Ohio State Buckeyes
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Player to Watch: Nick Bosa
A strong early candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, Nick Bosa is a backfield penetrating machine. The edge-rusher only made 34 total tackles last season, but 16 of them went for a loss, including 8.5 sacks. The last time a Buckeye did better in either of those categories was in 2014, when older brother Joey racked up 21.5 and 13.5, respectively.
Don't be surprised if Nick puts up similar numbers in 2018.
Biggest Threat: Take your pick
The Big Ten has five teams that should open the season ranked in the top 15: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan. The Buckeyes host the Wolverines and play road games against the Spartans and Nittany Lions. They don't play the Badgers during the regular season, but that is almost certainly who they would face in the Big Ten championship.
That probably makes Jonathan Taylor and Co. the top challengers. It's the one game that could definitely keep the Buckeyes from winning the league, whereas a loss to Penn State or Michigan State might only be a stumbling block.
Why They'll Win: An overabundance of athleticism
Though the Buckeyes lost J.T. Barrett, Dwayne Haskins might be an even better dual-threat QB. They also have arguably the nation's best one-two punch at running back in J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber. H-backs K.J. Hill and Parris Campbell are two great, veteran, speedy weapons in the passing game.
And led by guys like Bosa, Tuf Borland and Jeffrey Okudah, this defense might be even more athletically gifted than the offense. That isn't to say the other Big Ten teams are lacking in talent, but Ohio State has so much that it's hard to pick anyone else to win this league.
Conference USA: Florida Atlantic Owls
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Player to Watch: Devin Singletary
No player in the country had more carries last season than Devin Singletary. The sophomore rushed 301 times for 1,918 yards and 32 touchdowns. San Diego State's Rashaad Penny, Stanford's Bryce Love and Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor finished with more rushing yards, but no one from Conference USA came within 500 yards or 15 touchdowns of Singletary's totals.
Without a close runner-up, he is clearly the most valuable returning player in the conference.
Biggest Threat: North Texas
There are only two returning quarterbacks who threw for at least 4,000 yards last season: UCF's McKenzie Milton (4,037) and North Texas' Mason Fine (4,052).
Fine averaged nearly eight yards per attempt and had a Conference USA-best 31 passing touchdowns. All three of his top targets are returning, so the Mean Green could have a passing attack almost as potent as Florida Atlantic's running game.
Why They'll Win: In a league of their own
North Texas was the second-best team in Conference USA last year, and Lane Kiffin's guys pounded UNT twice—by 38 during the regular season and by 24 in the conference championship.
Once the running game got going, the Owls were almost unstoppable, scoring at least 30 points in 12 straight games to end the season. They do have brutal road games against Oklahoma and UCF in nonconference play, but another perfect C-USA record should be in the cards.
Mid-American: Ohio Bobcats
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Player to Watch: Nathan Rourke
Dating back to 2000, only six players have both thrown and rushed for at least 17 touchdowns in a season as either a freshman or sophomore: Tim Tebow, Dan LeFevour, Colin Kaepernick, Johnny Manziel, Lamar Jackson and Nathan Rourke.
Rourke's total yardage (2,203 passing, 907 rushing) wasn't anywhere close to what those other dual threats accomplished, but he scored multiple touchdowns in 12 of 13 games last year. Ohio brings back most of its offense from last season, and Rourke should be ready to lead it again.
Biggest Threat: Toledo
The Rockets lost three huge weapons in QB Logan Woodside, RB Terry Swanson and edge-rusher Olasunkanmi Adeniyi, but they still have an excellent wide receiver in Diontae Johnson and an active eight-year streak of winning records.
Ohio and Toledo won't play during the regular season, but it's the most likely pairing in the conference championship.
Why They'll Win: Least number of glaring holes
Ohio could have some growing pains after replacing basically its entire defensive line and linebacker corps. Let's be honest, though: There aren't any great teams in the 2018 MAC. In Athlon's way-too-early ranking of all 130 FBS teams, Ohio was the best from this league, checking in at No. 68.
The three best teams are probably Ohio, Toledo and Northern Illinois, and the Bobcats have the advantage of not being in the same division as the other two. With what should be one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country, that might be enough to win the MAC.
Mountain West: Boise State Broncos
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Player to Watch: Brett Rypien
Over the last three seasons, Brett Rypien has thrown for 9,873 yards and 60 touchdowns. He had a QB rating of at least 141.0 in each year, and he's one more healthy season away from finishing top 15 in career passing yards in FBS history.
Basically, he's this year's Group of Five version of J.T. Barrett, because it feels like he has been around for close to a decade. Either way, he's the best offensive weapon in this league.
Biggest Threat: Fresno State
It didn't take long for new head coach Jeff Tedford to turn Fresno State into a contender. After going 4-20 over the previous two seasons, the Bulldogs went 10-4 behind one of the best defenses in the country.
With Jeffrey Allison, George Helmuth, Jaron Bryant and JuJu Hughes all returning, they should be rock-solid on D once again. The QB-WR combo of Marcus McMaryion and KeeSean Johnson should provide offensive firepower, too.
Why They'll Win: Too much "best in the MWC" talent
Rypien is the best quarterback in the conference. Curtis Weaver (11.0 sacks in 2017) is probably the best defensive weapon in the Mountain West Conference. Tyler Horton is one of the best defensive backs. And Alexander Mattison should be, at worst, the second-best running back in the league now that Rashaad Penny, Diocemy Saint Juste and Dalyn Dawkins are out of the picture.
Moreover, the Broncos get both Fresno State and San Diego State at home, so they should be favored in every MWC game.
Pac-12: Washington Huskies
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Player to Watch: Myles Gaskin
As one half of Washington's QB-RB combo of four-year starters, Myles Gaskin has rushed for at least 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. Last year, he more than doubled that TD total with 21 of them. He also had his most productive season as a receiver with 232 yards and three more touchdowns.
If you're looking for a super dark horse to win the 2018 Heisman, Gaskin wouldn't be a bad pick. He should get a lot of national attention as he approaches a spot in the top 10 on the career rushing leaderboard.
Biggest Threat: Stanford
Speaking of great running backs, Stanford hit the jackpot with 2017 Heisman finalist Bryce Love opting to return for one more season. If K.J. Costello can make something of a sophomore-year leap at QB, Stanford might be the most talented team in the league.
Yet with road games against Oregon and Washington—as well as crossover games against what should be the two best teams in the South Division (USC and Utah)—the Cardinal will have a hard time winning enough Pac-12 games to finish ahead of Washington.
Why They'll Win: The culmination of an era
When the Huskies went to the College Football Playoff two seasons ago, they were at least a year ahead of schedule. But if they can find a new go-to wide receiver after losing John Ross and Dante Pettis in back-to-back years, this team should be even better than that one was.
In addition to the aforementioned Jake Browning and Gaskin, they have four returning starters on the offensive line. And despite losing Vita Vea, Keishawn Bierria and Azeem Victor, the defense is in fantastic shape, led by Taylor Rapp and Byron Murphy in the secondary.
Health permitting, Washington should be one of the top contenders to reach the playoff.
SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide
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Player to Watch: Raekwon Davis
Alabama's defense was gutted by graduations and early draft declarations. Seven of last year's top nine tacklers are gone, and the secondary is basically starting over from scratch. The Crimson Tide do have a few quality linebackers returning from injury, but the star of the D figures to be defensive end Raekwon Davis.
The 6'7", 306-pound phenom darn near led the team in tackles as a sophomore, racking up 69. He did lead the way with 8.5 sacks. Even in a year with guys such as Nick Bosa, Ed Oliver and a whole cavalry of weapons from Clemson, Davis might be the best defensive lineman in the nation.
Biggest Threat: Georgia
It almost seems inevitable that the 2018 SEC championship will be a rematch of last year's national championship game.
With all due respect to the likes of Auburn and Mississippi State, the teams to beat in the SEC are clearly Alabama and Georgia. Perhaps Jake Fromm will get the better of Tua Tagovailoa the second time around.
Why They'll Win: Sophomore sensations
Guys such as Tagovailoa, Najee Harris, Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith and Henry Ruggs III didn't make much of an impact until the College Football Playoff. But once they were given the chance to shine, it became abundantly clear that Alabama was going to be special on offense in 2019 and 2020.
The Crimson Tide defense is always among the best in the nation. Whether they'll be good or great typically hinges on the offense, and that's looking promising.
Sun Belt: Arkansas State Red Wolves
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Player to Watch: Justice Hansen
After originally signing with (and redshirting at) Oklahoma and spending one year at Butler C.C., Justice Hansen has been a godsend for Arkansas State. He threw for 3,967 yards and 37 touchdowns last season, adding 415 yards and seven TDs with his legs.
Over his final three games, he averaged 413.3 passing yards and 4.3 total touchdowns.
Biggest Threat: Louisiana-Monroe
Aside from Hansen, the clear-cut best returning QB in the Sun Belt is ULM's Caleb Evans. The sophomore had 17 passing touchdowns, 13 rushing touchdowns and nearly 3,500 combined yards. He led an offense that scored at least 45 points in five of 12 games last season.
The Warhawks defense was abysmal in 2017, but if they can just improve to "not awful," they'll be a contender.
Why They'll Win: Continued dominance
Arkansas State is 21-3 in Sun Belt play the past three seasons. All three losses were by a one-possession margin, and 18 of the wins were by at least 13 points. With both Troy and Appalachian State likely taking a step backward this year, the door is more wide-open than ever for the Red Wolves to run away with this league.
They do have a couple of key holes to fill on defense—most notably sack machine Ja'Von Rolland-Jones—but there's no good reason they should lose more than one conference game.
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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