Kentucky Derby Entries 2018: Race-Day Predictions for Horses, Jockeys in Lineup
The Kentucky Derby has been predictable in modern times, with the horsesbestowed the best odds from oddsmakers typically going on to win at Churchill Downs.
Call it a Catch-22 for the sport. Predictable outcomes usually aren't a good thing. But the other side of the coin is how thrilling it is to watch a legend like California Chrome or American Pharoah go on to compete for the rare Triple Crown.
It's hard to know ahead of Saturday's 144th Run for the Roses if another Triple Crown contender quietly sits in the deep field. Oddsmakers have assigned a few favorites, though this year's entry list seems deeper than most.
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2018 Kentucky Derby Entries
1. Firenze Fire: 66-1 (Jockey: Paco Lopez)
2. Free Drop Billy: 35-1 (Jockey: Robby Albarado)
3. Promises Fulfilled: 40-1 (Jockey: Corey Lanerie)
4. Flameaway: 50-1 (Jockey: Jose Lezcano)
5. Audible: 13-2 (Jockey: Javier Castellano)
6. Good Magic: 8-1 (Jockey: Jose Ortiz)
7. Justify: 7-2 (Jockey: Mike E. Smith)
8. Lone Sailor: 50-1 (Jockey: James Graham)
9. Hofburg: 15-1 (Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.)
10. My Boy Jack: 18-1 (Jockey: Kent Desormeaux)
11. Bolt d'Oro: 17-2 (Jockey: Victor Espinoza)
12. Enticed: 25-1 (Jockey: Junior Alvarado)
13. Bravazo: 60-1 (Jockey: Luis Contreras)
14. Mendelssohn: 7-2 (Jockey: Ryan Moore)
15. Instilled Regard: 60-1 (Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke)
16. Magnum Moon: 15-2 (Jockey: Luis Saez)
17. Solomini: 22-1 (Jockey: Flavien Prat)
18. Vino Rosso: 12-1 (Jockey: John R. Velazquez)
19. Noble Indy: 30-1 (Jockey: Florent Geroux)
20. Combatant: 66-1 (Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.)
Odds via OddsShark
Prediction
First: Justify: 7-2 (Jockey: Mike E. Smith)
The man who trained Triple Crown winner American Pharoah isn't going to lose out on this event in something of an unpredictable field.
Bob Baffert walks Justify to the gate Saturday, and the oddsmakers' line here isn't hard to...justify. Not only is Baffert training, National Museum of Horse Racing Hall of Famer Mike E. Smith is up top and the colt cruised to victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby as a warm-up for Saturday.
While Justify didn't race as a two-year-old, bringing on the so-called "Curse of Apollo," Baffert's confidence should alarm the rest of the field.
"When I worked him the first time at Santa Anita, he did something really incredible in the morning," Baffert said, according to USA Today's Dan Wolken. "The time wasn't that fast, but just the way he did it. There's nothing like knowing you have a horse like that and you go, man. You just know this is the goods right here. This is the goods."
It's hard to pick against Justify out of the seventh slot. Having not been overworked, his stamina should be there, and Baffert's presence means it won't be long until we're talking about Triple Crown contention.
Second: Audible (Jockey: Javier Castellano)
If a trainer-colt combo is going to take down Baffert, it's going to come in the form of Todd Pletcher-Audible.
Pletcher won this event last year while riding the Always Dreaming wave and has a Hall of Fame jockey: Javier Castellano will direct the show out of the fifth slot.
Audible has a bigger resume than Justify, having run three races before pulling off two notable wins in a row: a triumph in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes was followed by a Grade 1 Florida Derby win.
For Matt Dinerman of Golden Gate Fields, Audible is a solid pick:
But a colt isn't guaranteed to outrun its pedigree, and there's a chance fatigue could catch up to Audible, especially if Castellano tries to shift him inside and he gets lost in the commotion.
A strong finishing burst should have Audible taking runner-up status at worst.
Third: Mendelssohn (Jockey: Ryan Moore)
Mendelssohn might have the best story in the field.
History is the name of the game for the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt, as it has a chance to become the first European-trained winner ever at Churchill Downs.
It will be easier said than done, but Mendelssohn has a lengthy resume topped off by a win in the Grade 2 UAE Derby.
Saturday will be a step up in competition, though any concerns the travel would harm Mendelssohn's performance got shot down by Daily Racing Form's Marcus Hersh:
O'Brien is easily one of the best trainers on the planet. He ships his colts everywhere and wins, yet the Derby has eluded him, with all five of his attendees so far finishing no better than fifth.
While Mendelssohn still faces questions over his level of competition and his running from the 14th slot, he should slot the highest of O'Brien's runners, but history says a win isn't in the cards.
Stats and info courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com unless otherwise specified.
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