Ranking Potential for Upsets in 1st-Round NBA Playoff Matchups
Let's be honest here—nobody loves chalk. It's boring. We've seen a lot of it lately, though. The last time a No. 6 seed or lower won an NBA playoff series was 2014, when the Brooklyn Nets defeated the third-seeded Toronto Raptors in seven games.
Since the Association expanded the first round from five contests to seven in 2003, 26 lower seeds have advanced, according to Basketball Reference. Of those, only one, the 2013 Memphis Grizzlies (a fifth seed), has also won in the second round.
So which teams this year have the best chance to join the ranks of the successful underdogs (for the purpose of this article, the lower seed)? Because of the nature of the 2017-18 season, the squads are a lot more packed than they normally are.
Others are facing injury issues and could see challenges in a series they would normally dominate.
Here are the five biggest chances for an upset in the first round of the 2018 NBA playoffs.
San Antonio Spurs (7) over Golden State Warriors (2)
1 of 5
The San Antonio Spurs look like they are going to be without Kawhi Leonard, but they have been almost all season. The Golden State Warriors should be without Stephen Curry, though, and that's a trade-off the Spurs are probably willing to make.
This is about the worst possible matchup for the Warriors at a bad time.
With Curry on the court, they have a net rating of plus-18.3 against the Spurs, and they are just plus-5.1 without him. (Some of that is skewed by the fact that the Warriors rested most of their normal starters in the last game between the two.)
However, the game on March 8 in which they lost Curry after the first couple of minutes was more telling. Golden State's other All-Stars were healthy and playing. The Warriors still squeaked out a 110-107 win, but the game was highly competitive and in Oakland, California, at Oracle Arena.
Since then, the Dubs are 7-10 with a net rating of minus-2.2. There is a litany of factors that go into that, so this number needs to be approached with caution. They were pretty much locked into the second seed, and they faced a plethora of injuries.
But even with that consideration, they are out of sync. The Spurs have essentially been in playoff mode for a month. And they're coached by one of the greatest ever to do the job in Gregg Popovich.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been playing at an MVP-caliber level, averaging 25.0 points and 8.6 boards per game since the All-Star break in February.
I'm not picking the Spurs, but there's a Lloyd Christmas chance that they upend the Warriors.
Washington Wizards (8) over Toronto Raptors (1)
2 of 5
The top seed rarely falls in the first round, but it has happened since the seven-game expansion. The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Chicago Bulls after Derrick Rose went down in 2012. The Memphis Grizzlies upended the Spurs in 2011. Most famously, the Warriors upset the Dallas Mavericks in 2007.
This year, the Wizards have a shot at joining the No. 8 seeds that have advanced.
Washington and Toronto split the regular-season series 2-2, with a total of two points tipping the scale in the Raptors' favor over those four games. So, while Toronto has a significant advantage with its 59-23 record, the Wizards (43-39) have been able to hang with it in head-to-heads.
A big part of the reason for that is Bradley Beal, who averaged 28.8 points, 5.5 boards and 4.3 dimes per game against the Dinosaurs. Otto Porter Jr. has been fire from deep, shooting 53.3 percent on 3.8 attempts per game.
And John Wall? Well, he hasn't played against the Raps this year, but last season, he was excellent, averaging 25.0 points and 10.3 assists in three games. And remember: In 2015, the tandem of Wall and Beal swept the duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
A lot has changed since then, and DeRozan in particular has grown as a player. The Raptors have modified their game to be a more modern team, and that change is a huge part of why they are the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Wizards will be without Jodie Meeks, who was suspended 25 games for violating the substance-abuse policy, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, but his 6.3 points per game probably won't be too sorely missed.
If the Wizards press them and DeRozan starts falling back into bad habits, they could make a series of this, as the difference in talent isn't nearly as wide as the gap in their records.
New Orleans Pelicans (6) over Portland Trail Blazers (3)
3 of 5
There is only one reason to pick the New Orleans Pelicans as having a shot here, and his name is Anthony Davis. The Brow has been nothing short of spectacular since DeMarcus Cousins went down with a blown Achilles against the Houston Rockets on Jan. 26.
Since then, he's averaged 30.2 points (first), 11.9 boards (sixth), 2.2 assists, 2.1 steals (third) and 3.2 blocks (first) per game. The Pelicans are 21-13 in that span and, most importantly, in the playoffs because of Davis.
New Orleans split the regular-season series with the Blazers, but both wins came with Cousins. The second loss was the only game the Brow played without Boogie, but you can't blame the 107-103 defeat on Davis, who went for 36 points, 14 boards, four assists, two steals and six blocks.
Damian Lillard countered with 41 points, nine boards, six dimes and four thefts of his own, so it's not like Portland doesn't have a counterpunch. The Blazers have been spectacular down the stretch too, which is why they're the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. They're the better team.
Sometimes, though, a playoff series comes down to one dude strapping a team on his back and climbing uphill. With apologies to the worth-mentioning Jrue Holiday, Davis has been doing that for about the last three months, and he would build on his legacy by dragging New Orleans to the second round.
Of all the potential upsets, this is the one I most want to see because I love a good hero story, and you can't have the movie ending if Portland knocks out the Pelicans in the first round.
Milwaukee Bucks (7) over Boston Celtics (2)
4 of 5
The Milwaukee Bucks have not blossomed like most of us hoped. They only won two more games than they did in 2016-17, and they got pummeled 130-95 in their regular-season finale against the Philadelphia 76ers.
They did split their season series with the Celtics, though, including the win on April 3—the first time they saw Boston since Dec. 4. That's significant because the C's were clobbered by injuries and still are. That might be the matchup we're looking at for the first round.
Kyrie Irving is out for the postseason, per Wojnarowski. Marcus Smart is out until at least April 27, according to Basketball Reference.
The C's stumbled their way into the playoffs, losing three of their last five. Jaylen Brown is now Boston's leading scorer, and Giannis Antetokounmpo will probably guard him most of the time. The 21-year-old Celtic has managed just six points on three shots in the 24 times they've been matched up this season.
Their next best scorer is Jayson Tatum. On 30 possessions, he has not scored against the Greek Freak.
Where are the Celtics going to get their points? The Bucks aren't the best team or the best coached team under interim boss Joe Prunty. But they're the healthier squad, and they have the best player on the court. While Boston's scorers have struggled to score against him, Antetokounmpo has had his way on offense, averaging 33.5 points per game on 53.9 percent shooting, adding 10.8 boards and 5.0 assists.
Khris Middleton is also well-suited to combat Brown or Tatum.
The Celtics have been cobbling together wins in spite of an absurd number of injuries all season. Head coach Brad Stevens is among the sharpest minds in the league and somehow always manages to find something that works.
The Bucks have been the opposite in many ways, less than the sum of their parts.
I'm not going to be shocked if the Celtics hold home-court advantage and get to the second round. But I'm not going to be stunned if they don't have an answer for Antetokounmpo either.
Utah Jazz (5) over Oklahoma City Thunder (4)
5 of 5
This is going to be the most hotly contested series, and the Utah Jazz are an upset here. In fact, based on the way the two teams have played over the last half of the season, you could argue the Jazz are the favorites.
In January, shortly after Rudy Gobert returned from injury, the Jazz had an 11-game winning streak, and they've been rolling ever since. Since Jan. 24, they're 29-6 with a league-best 12.0 net rating.
By contrast, the Thunder stumbled into the playoffs, losing five of seven before winning their last three to get back in. While they are the fourth seed, they only finished two games ahead of the Denver Nuggets, who are watching the postseason at home.
On Dec. 18 against OKC, Nuggets guard Gary Harris missed a buzzer-beater that would have won the game. If he made that shot, Denver would be in playoffs, and OKC would be out. That's how close all of this was.
The Thunder won three of their four matchups with the Jazz, but those were before Andre Roberson went down for the season with a ruptured left patellar tendon. And Gobert didn't play in two of those losses for Utah (he tried to come back from his injury too early for the Dec. 5 defeat). Based on game score, it was his third-worst performance of the season.
That's significant because he's a huge part of what makes the Jazz so good. Opponents shoot 10 percentage points below their season averages when he's the closest defender within six feet of the rim. Opponents have a 49.0 effective field-goal percentage overall.
All of that is crucial because the Thunder just don't have an efficient offense. They're 17th in effective field-goal percentage and 21st in true shooting percentage.
Reigning MVP Russell Westbrook in particular could feel the impact of Gobert. His effective field-goal percentage on catch-and-shoots is just 49.5, and it's an abysmal 39.9 percent on pull-ups. He's much more lethal within 10 feet (63.6 percent).
OKC is 10th in offensive rating (107.6 points per 100 possessions), but that's because of the offensive rebounding prowess of Steven Adams (5.1 per game, 3.2 more than any other member of the team).
The problem is the Jazz have the fourth-best defensive rebounding percentage and are first since Gobert returned Jan. 19. On the season, the Thunder are first in second-chance points, but the Jazz are second in second-chance points against.
Utah is just as good as the Thunder, and it's a matchup nightmare. Without all those extra opportunities and with Gobert taking away the rim, OKC will be a jump-shooting team. The Thunder are only tied for 14th in effective field-goal percentage on catch-and-shoots, and they're 26th on pull-ups.
If that's the way this series goes, the Jazz will win it, and it might not even be that competitive.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference.
