Knee-Jerk MLB Trade Ideas After 2018's Opening Weeks
It's never too early to start talking trades, even when the MLB season is less than two weeks old.
Early areas of need have already begun to present themselves to contenders, whether it's a result of losing a key player to injury or not doing enough in the offseason to shore up the roster.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, rebuilding teams are already starting to take inventory of potential trade chips, and selling high on a hot start could be the best way to maximize value.
Ahead, we've broken down some knee-jerk trade ideas, including a handful of sell-high candidates, a couple of flushed out trade proposals and two teams that look like ideal trade partners.
Sell-High Candidate: Junichi Tazawa, Miami Marlins
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The Miami Marlins signed Junichi Tazawa to a two-year, $12 million deal last offseason in hopes he could be part of a stacked relief corps after he spent seven years with the Boston Red Sox.
Instead, he struggled to a 5.69 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with nine holds in 55 appearances.
While that essentially made him a high-priced middle reliever, there's reason to believe he can be a quality setup option for a contender.
In the four years prior to reaching free agency, he racked up 74 holds with a 3.53 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 while averaging 64 appearances.
It's still early, but he's off to a strong start in 2018 with a 1.59 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in 5.2 innings over four appearances.
His curveball and splitter have both been untouchable so far, and for a team that's willing to take on the remainder of his $7 million salary, he won't cost much in the way of prospect talent and could prove to be a difference-making addition.
Sell-High Candidate: Jed Lowrie, Oakland Athletics
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Jed Lowrie was quietly excellent for the Oakland Athletics last season.
The veteran infielder hit .277/.360/.448 with 49 doubles, 14 home runs and 69 RBI last season, posting a career-high 4.0 WAR in the process.
After having his $6 million option exercised during the offseason, he's off to a strong start again with a .341/.408/.545 line that includes three doubles and two home runs in 49 plate appearances.
While he's played primarily second base the past few seasons, he's also capable of manning shortstop and third base, and that versatility makes it easy to picture him fitting on a number of contenders.
With prospect Franklin Barreto recently promoted to the majors, trading Lowrie early would open up more playing time for a guy who has a chance to be a significant long-term piece.
And while he won't bring back a huge prospect return, a couple mid-level prospects is a reasonable asking price.
Sell-High Candidate: Brandon McCarthy, Atlanta Braves
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A strong spring won Brandon McCarthy a spot in the Atlanta Braves rotation after he was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers during the offseason.
The Braves are only on the hook for $7 million of his $11.5 million salary as he enters the final season of a four-year, $48 million deal.
After posting a 3.45 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .193 opponents' batting average in 15.2 innings this spring, he's won his first two regular season starts in a Braves uniform.
- Mar 31 (vs. PHI): 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
- April 6 (@ COL): 6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Health remains the ongoing question for a pitcher who has not topped 100 innings since 2014, but he's capable of providing some quality innings if he can find a way to stay on the field.
The 34-year-old posted a 3.98 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 92.2 innings of work last year.
Contenders thin on quality starting pitching depth could do a lot worse at the back of the rotation.
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Sell-High Candidate: Matt Davidson, Chicago White Sox
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Matt Davidson started off the 2018 season with a bang, launching three home runs on Opening Day in a 14-7 Chicago White Sox victory.
Power has never been a problem for the 27-year-old who launched 26 home runs last season in his first extended action at the MLB level.
However, it came with 4.3 percent walk rate and 37.2 percent strikeout rate that led to a less than stellar .220/.260/.452 line over 443 plate appearances.
In short, his approach needed to change.
It's still early, but he already has six walks in 35 plate appearances after taking just 19 free passes last year. That continues a trend that started this spring when he hit .328/.411/.594 with a passable 19/9 K/BB ratio in 73 trips to the plate.
He's a below-average defender best suited for regular DH duties, but his improved approach could give the White Sox an opportunity to sell high on a player whose future looked uncertain when the season began.
Early-Season Impact Trade: Blake Treinen to the Los Angeles Dodgers
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There's a lot to like about Blake Treinen.
He's in the prime of his career at 29 years old, under team control through the 2020 season and has proved to be a reliable late-inning option since he was traded to the Oakland Athletics last summer.
The sinkerballer posted a 2.13 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 9.9 K/9 and 13 saves in 16 chances after coming to Oakland in the deal that sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Washington Nationals.
Locked into the closer's role this season, he has yet to allow an earned run in six innings while nailing down a pair of save chances and striking out seven.
The Los Angeles Dodgers lost setup man Brandon Morrow during the offseason, and the relief corps as a whole has looked a bit porous in the early going with three losses and three blown saves in the team's first nine games.
The asking price for Treinen will be high, but he could be the perfect early addition to solidify the eighth inning ahead of closer Kenley Jansen.
A package built around Dustin May or Dennis Santana—a pair of right-handers who rank No. 10 and 11, respectively, on the organizational prospect list, per MLB.com—with a lottery ticket lower-level prospect or two thrown in could be enough for the A's to pull the trigger.
Early-Season Blockbuster: Rangers/Royals/Blue Jays Three-Team Swap
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Three-team trades can get a bit convoluted, but makes sense for everyone involved.
- TEX Gets: SP Ian Kennedy
The Rangers opted against making a splashy signing to address the starting rotation this offseason, instead adding Mike Minor, Doug Fister, Bartolo Colon and Matt Moore to round out the staff.
The rotation has not performed particularly well to this point with a 4.67 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .295 opponents' batting average.
Kennedy struggled to a 5.38 ERA in 30 starts last season, but he was 11-11 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 195.2 innings just two years ago, and he's off to a brilliant start with a 0.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 12 innings over his first two starts.
The 33-year-old is owed $49 million over the next three years.
- TOR Gets: DH Shin-Soo Choo, $13 million from TEX
The Blue Jays have gotten little in the way of production from incumbent DH Kendrys Morales this season, as he's hitting just .190/.250/.333 with eight strikeouts in 24 plate appearances.
Choo is owed a whopping $62 million over the next three years, but he's off to a great start with a .325/.386/.625 line that includes three doubles and three home runs.
The Rangers might be willing to move him to open up a spot for Willie Calhoun, and if they can get the Rangers to absorb enough of his remaining contract to match what's still owed to Kennedy, it evens the scales in this trade.
- KC Gets: DH Kendrys Morales, RHP Justin Maese
Morales posted a 119 OPS+ while averaging 26 home runs and 100 RBI in two seasons with the Royals prior to signing with the Blue Jays, and a return to Kansas City could serve him well.
That said, this deal is all about money for the Royals.
Taking on Morales' contract and moving Kennedy saves $26 million overall and cuts the commitment from three to two years.
The strong start from Kennedy should also be enough to warrant a mid-level prospect from the Blue Jays, and athletic right-hander Justin Maese is the kind of upside arm that would make sense as a target.
Perfect Trade Partners: Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres
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The Boston Red Sox bullpen has been a weakness.
The relief corps ranks 20th in the majors with a 4.24 ERA, and both Joe Kelly (3 G, 10.80 ERA) and Carson Smith (5 G, 9.82 ERA) are off to rocky starts setting up closer Craig Kimbrel.
That could make the San Diego Padres the perfect trade partner.
The Red Sox might not want to pay the price for Brad Hand, and it's unclear if he would even be available after signing an extension during the offseason.
However, both Craig Stammen and Kirby Yates would be welcome additions after putting together terrific 2017 campaigns:
- Stammen: 60 G, 11 HLD, 3.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.3 K/9
- Yates: 62 G, 20 HLD, 3.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 14.0 K/9
Stammen signed a two-year, $6.75 deal during the offseason, while Yates is under team control through 2020, so both pitchers would be more than just rentals.
The Red Sox farm system is lacking in top-tier talent, but there's enough intrigue in some of their lower-level arms that they should be able to put together a package for one or both of those pitchers if the Padres decided to sell early.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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