NBA Draft 2018: Final Mock Draft Ahead of March Madness Elite 8
For the smattering of NBA draft prospects still standing in the upset-heavy 2018 men's NCAA tournament, the time is dwindling to impress big-league scouts.
Only three rounds remain after Friday's four-game slate cut the field down to eight teams. But the less squads there are, the greater the exposure—and, thus, the possibilities to impress.
Draft stocks will remain relatively fluid between now and the June 21 talent grab, but here's a look at how things could shake out given the current selection order, per Tankathon.com, and a closer examination of two polarizing prospects.
2018 NBA Mock Draft
1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton (Arizona, C, Freshman)
2. Memphis Grizzlies: Luka Doncic (Slovenia, SG, 1999)
3. Atlanta Hawks: Marvin Bagley III (Duke, PF/C, Freshman)
4. Orlando Magic: Mohamed Bamba (Texas, C, Freshman)
5. Dallas Mavericks: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State, PF/C, Freshman)
6. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Brooklyn Nets): Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri, SF/PF, Freshman)
7. Sacramento Kings: Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke, C, Freshman)
8. Chicago Bulls: Collin Sexton (Alabama, PG, Freshman)
9. New York Knicks: Mikal Bridges (Villanova, SF, Junior)
10. Philadelphia 76ers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Kevin Knox (Kentucky, SF, Freshman)
11. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges (Michigan State, SF/PF, Sophomore)
12. Los Angeles Clippers (via Detroit Pistons): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky, PG/SG, Freshman)
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams (Texas A&M, C, Sophomore)
14. Denver Nuggets: Trae Young (Oklahoma, PG, Freshman)
15. Phoenix Suns (via Milwaukee Bucks): Daniel Gafford (Arkansas, C, Freshman)
16. Phoenix Suns (via Miami Heat): Dzanan Musa (Bosnia and Herzegovina, SG/SF, 1999)
17. Washington Wizards: Lonnie Walker IV (Miami, SG, Freshman)
18. Utah Jazz: Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech, SF, Freshman)
19. Indiana Pacers: Troy Brown (Oregon, SG/SF, Freshman)
20. Atlanta Hawks (via Minnesota Timberwolves): Anfernee Simons (IMG Academy, PG/SG, 1999)
21. Philadelphia 76ers: Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State, SF/PF, Junior)
22. Chicago Bulls (via New Orleans Pelicans): Mitchell Robinson (USA, C, 1998)
23. San Antonio Spurs: Jontay Porter (Missouri, C, Freshman)
24. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Oklahoma City Thunder): Khyri Thomas (Creighton, SG, Junior)
25. Los Angeles Lakers (via Cleveland Cavaliers): Aaron Holiday (UCLA, PG, Junior)
26. Portland Trail Blazers: Chandler Hutchison (Boise State, SF, Senior)
27. Boston Celtics: Shake Milton (SMU, PG/SF, Junior)
28. Brooklyn Nets (via Toronto Raptors): Bruce Brown Jr. (Miami, SG, Sophomore)
29. Golden State Warriors: Landry Shamet (Wichita State, PG/SG, Sophomore)
30. Atlanta Hawks (Houston Rockets): De'Anthony Melton (USC, SG, Sophomore)
Polarizing Prospects
Marvin Bagley III
The numbers say there's nothing to worry about with Marvin Bagley III, and maybe they're right.
It's not like players with his size-skill-motor combination come across often. And it's not like he's struggling to put those tools to use, as he's a double-double machine (21.2 points and 11.1 rebounds) and a scoring threat both inside the arc (61.5 field-goal percentage) and beyond it (38.6 three-point percentage).
CBS Sports' Reid Forgrave mocks Bagley as the No. 1 overall player and makes a compelling argument for considering it:
"He might be the most physically gifted player in this draft, someone with the athletic gifts of an Andrew Wiggins. And if his ceiling is a supersized Andrew Wiggins, that's pretty damn good. … One of the issues with Wiggins in the NBA has been his propensity to draft; Bagley never drifts. He plays with one of the most incredible motors I've ever seen."
So, how does Bagley qualify as polarizing? He's not the easiest fit on most rosters.
At the NBA level, he'd work best alongside a shot-blocking, three-point shooting big. There aren't many teams selecting in the early-to-mid lottery that have one—Memphis Grizzlies (Marc Gasol) and New York Knicks (Kristaps Porzingis) are about it—and those that do have other roster holes they could opt to address.
Maybe Bagley improves his shooting (he's only a 62.7-percent foul shooter) enough that his two-way perimeter contributions compensate for his interior shortcomings. Or perhaps his inside-the-arc offense is so dominant that he torches smaller defenders and forces clubs to alter their approach.
But his big-league projections are as unclear as any player being mocked in his range.
"The things Bagley does best just aren't done anymore in the NBA," The Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks wrote. "He either has to become so good at them that he forces the league to adjust to him, or he has to change the way he plays. Either way, it's a big gamble to take with a top-three pick."
Trae Young
Given his incredible production during his one-and-done campaign at Oklahoma—leading the nation in both points (27.4) and assists (8.7)—it shouldn't be this difficult to plot Trae Young's NBA path.
But when you combine his late-season swoon (37.8 percent shooting over his final 13 outings) with questions about his defense, scouting departments seem to be souring on the 19-year-old.
"I would not take him in the lottery," one scout told Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman.
A Western Conference executive said, "I don't see it with him" and labeled him a "teaser" and "volume shooter," per Wasserman.
Young isn't tall, long or explosive. Even if he's a flamethrower from three, his offensive ceiling will be capped if he can't finish plays around the basket. And his defensive floor is low enough to imagine a lowlight reel of his play at that end making the viral rounds at some point.
That said, his upside is enormous.
With off-the-bus shooting range and creativity as a playmaker, he's drawn enough comparisons to Stephen Curry for them to make their way to the two-time MVP himself.
Curry called Young "unbelievable," per The Athletic's Anthony Slater:
The good Young is a glitch in defensive game plans. He warps the floor around him, pulling defenders out well beyond the arc and creating optimal spacing for off-ball cutters and spot-up snipers.
The less-than-good Young is a defensive liability and break-even player on offense who undermines his counting categories with inefficiency.
He's worth a lottery wager, but it'll be a high-priced, boom-or-bust bet.
Statistics used courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.
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