Oregon at Washington: Ducks Look To Put Down the Dawgs

From a fan’s perspective, there is one good thing you can say about Oregon’s bye week.

It is almost over.

While “quack heads” like me were getting as antsy without Ducks football as a northwesterner after more than two consecutive days of sunny weather, Oregon’s football team was using to time off to try and get key players healthy for this Saturday’s showdown in Seattle.

Two weeks ago, Nate Costa, who, at one time, was seen as the successor to Dennis Dixon, made his first collegiate start at the Rose Bowl against UCLA. Oregon’s offense only scored 10 points (the only touchdown coming off of a short field after a Bruins fumble) and Costa tossed an ill-advised pass that was caught in the end zone for a SportsCenter worthy interception.

But the Ducks defense made a goal-line stand and had a “pick six” of their own. Combined with Kenjon Barner’s kickoff return to begin the third quarter Oregon did all it needed to outlast a UCLA squad still looking for any offensive consistency.

The Ducks are coming off a bye week that will hopefully see quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (knee) and safety TJ Ward (ankle) back from injuries. Neither is certain to play, however, Oregon’s weekly press release has “Masoli or Costa” listed as the starter while Ward appears behind John Boyett on the depth chart.

Oregon will look to continue their current five-game win streak over the Dawgs, the longest winning streak for the Ducks in the history of series. But despite Oregon’s recent dominance, there are a number of factors that could point toward a possible upset.

The first is that the Huskies have the home field advantage. While Washington’s teams have not lived up to the facility in recent seasons, Husky Stadium is still one of the most raucous in the country. New head coach Steve Sarkisian has found a way to harness this advantage in leading the Huskies to a 3-1 home record this year.

The only loss was a close one in the first week of the season to LSU, and one of the wins was against USC.

The other factor in Washington’s favor is that this is a rivalry game, when statistics and rankings can often be misleading. Make no mistake, the Husky faithful are sick and tired of being upstaged by smaller “Nike University” to the south,and would relish a chance to regain their old dominance of this series.

UW’s offense still sinks or swims with star quarterback Jake Locker. “West Coast Tebow” is tough to tackle and has deceptive acceleration to get to the edge when he tucks the ball and runs. But in Sarkisian’s new pro-set offense he has grown as a passer this year.

How Oregon’s defense handles Locker will determine whether or not the Huskies have a shot at the upset. The Ducks’ secondary is thin after losing two senior corners for the season. While the replacements have fared well, much of this can be attributed to the front seven’s ability to consistently pressure the quarterbacks of Cal, Washington State, and UCLA.

If Washington keeps the Ducks pass rush at bay it is questionable how well their secondary can hold up. Even when the Ducks get pressure, they cannot allow any routes of escape; otherwise Locker could hurt them with his mobility. How well Oregon pressures Locker will determine how much they can contain the Huskies.

On offense the Ducks would seem to enjoy the advantage as they lead the conference in rushing offense (even factoring in “the game we don’t speak of”), while Washington is ninth in rushing defense. The Ducks spread offense keys off of the running game, and to beat the Huskies it is imperative that they keep producing on the ground.

A lot of fans probably remember the last game these two teams played in Seattle when Dennis Dixon and Jonathon Stewart led the Ducks to set the school record for rushing yards in a game. What a lot of Duck fans tend to gloss over is that the score was tied at 31 all at the beginning of the fourth quarter before Oregon finally pulled away.

While the Ducks' runners have looked solid all year and have the opportunity to gash what has been up until now a weak Washington rush defense, the state of Oregon’s passing game is suspect. Nate Costa made a single glaring error in his first start two weeks ago (the aforementioned interception), but made up for it by keeping a drive alive in the third quarter when he evaded the rush and found David Paulsen on third down.

Still, Costa seemed to lack the same chemistry with his receivers that Jeremiah Masoli had finally developed against Cal and Washington State. Even if Masoli does start there is no way of knowing whether he will be able to regain his pre-injury form immediately or will backslide to where he was against Boise State, Purdue, and Utah.

No matter who is throwing the ball for the Ducks, it is imperative that they keep tight end Ed Dickson in their sights. Dickson is leading Oregon in every major receiving category by a large margin. As potent a weapon as he is, it would behoove the Ducks to try to get their other receivers more involved so that teams cannot key on Dickson to shut down the passing game.

On special teams, both Washington and Oregon feature reliable kickers. The Huskies have better stats in both punt coverage and punt returns, but Oregon has shown the ability to break big kickoff returns. This phase of the game seems fairly even, with the slight edge going to Washington.

For the Ducks to keep their winning streak against the Huskies going, they must run the ball effectively and keep Locker under control. Oregon cannot allow momentum-swing plays on the road (turnovers, returns, etc.).

Washington leads the conference in third-down conversions, and if the Ducks defense is forced into another marathon game like some they played earlier this year Locker and the Huskies offense will find a way to make them pay. Oregon must make the plays that will keep momentum on their side and neutralize the home field energy that Washington will be counting on.

As big as the questions are a quarterback for the Ducks, the combination of a great running game and a defense that has answered every challenge they have faced this year makes me think Oregon can win it.

That is, assuming the Ducks aren’t looking ahead. Their next opponent knows all about what happens when you underestimate Sarkisian’s Huskies...

MY CALL : Oregon Ducks 31, Washington Huskies 21