Ranking the Top Freshmen in the 2018 NCAA Tournament

Poll enough college basketball coaches and analysts and you'll eventually hear them echoing similar versions of the same phrase: At this point of the year, freshmen aren't freshmen anymore.

After a grueling regular season of 30 or more games, first-year players can hardly still be considered rookies. With the NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Championship beginning Tuesday, inexperience goes out the door and talent takes center stage.

And there's no more talented group of players in the game than the freshman class. The best of that lot tend to be the ones taken first in the NBA draft and this year's crop figures to be no different, with 18 of the projected first-round picks (according to NBADraft.net) expected to be freshmen.

A good number of those youngsters have their teams in the NCAA tourney. We've ranked the best of them, factoring in their regular-season stats as well as how much impact their individual play could have on their teams' runs.

Note: One name you will not see ranked, though, is Missouri's Michael Porter Jr. Though likely to be a very high draft pick, he enters the tournament with a mere 25 minutes of game action after playing two minutes in the Tigers' season opener and then 23 in their most recent game.

10. Kellan Grady, Davidson

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Stats: 18.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 50.8% FG, 37.7% 3PT FG, 79.8% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Kentucky on Thursday)

The last time Davidson had a freshman this exciting his name was Steph Curry, who in 2006-07 averaged 21.5 points per game for the Wildcats. Three years later he was an NBA lottery pick and is now one of the biggest stars in the pros.

Could Kellan Grady reach a similar height? That's still too far out to predict, but for now it's not out of the question to compare Grady's play this season to that of Curry in his first college campaign.

The 6'5" guard would be scoring more if Davidson didn't have a 2,000-point scorer in senior guard Peyton Aldridge—though Grady can light it up, as we saw when he went for 30 and 39 in back-to-back games late in the regular season. He could easily take over as the primary scorer in the NCAA tourney, thus furthering the Curry comparisons.

What's Next

Grady may put his name into the draft but is almost sure to return to Davidson in 2018-19, where he'll rise to the No. 1 scoring spot with Aldridge graduating. His sophomore numbers could be huge, possibly topping the 25.9 per game Curry put up in 2007-08.

9. Daniel Gafford, Arkansas

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Stats: 11.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 61.8% FG, 52.2% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Butler on Friday)

Daniel Gafford can use the NCAA tournament to boost a stock that has been on the rise for some time, the 6'11" forward having put up several recent big games in key Arkansas victories. He had 21 points and 10 rebounds in an upset of SEC co-champion Auburn in late February and in an SEC tournament quarterfinal win against Florida added 16 points on 8-of-11 shooting with 12 rebounds.

He is the Razorbacks' best defensive player, and it's that area where he stands to have the most impact in the postseason. If the Hogs get past Butler in the first round, Gafford would get to deal with 7'2" Purdue senior Isaac Haas.

What's Next

Up 15 spots to 19th on NBADraft.net's Aran Smith's 2018 big board, Gafford should at the very least test the draft waters this offseason. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a team reach out and pick him in the lottery and look to develop his overall offensive game in the G League.

8. Jaren Jackson Jr., Michigan State

Steven Ryan/Getty Images

Stats: 11.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.2 APG, 3.2 BPG, 52.0% FG, 39.6% 3PT FG, 79.7% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Bucknell on Friday)

Michigan State's sophomore class, led by wing Miles Bridges, makes up its core, but Jaren Jackson Jr. is also important to the Spartans' success. Not many players in the country can block shots and make three-pointers with the same effectiveness.

The 6'11" forward has hit at least two threes in eight games, draining five on two occasions, and 13 times he's swatted four or more shots from the basket. And he's averaging just over 22 minutes per game as MSU's eight-man rotation all spends plenty of time on the court.

If coach Tom Izzo elects to lean more on his starters, look for Jackson to be out there more; though that's assuming he can avoid foul trouble, as he's fouled out five times with three coming in 18 or fewer minutes.

What's Next

Jackson's inside-out game is perfect for the current NBA, where big men can't just hang out in the paint. And unlike Bridges, he isn't likely to surprise anyone by staying in college for another season.

7. Mohamed Bamba, Texas

Chris Covatta/Getty Images

Stats: 12.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 3.7 BPG, 54.1% FG, 67.8% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Nevada on Friday)

When it comes to big men, it's all about the feet. Anything that goes wrong with those lower appendages can severely affect their play and impact their long-term success. Late this season, Mohamed Bamba missed four games and played just 14 minutes in Texas' Big 12 quarterfinal loss to Texas Tech because of a sprained left toe.

But the 6'11" forward said Sunday, "I think I'm at 100 percent," per Brian Davis of the Austin American-Statesman, which means the Longhorns will once again have a fierce interior defender and rebounder who can score in the right situations.

Opening opponent Nevada could be a great team for Bamba to break out against, since no one in the Wolfpack's rotation is taller than 6'7".

What's Next

Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman compared Bamba's game to that of Rudy Gobert and Nerlens Noel, centers he's likely to be playing against next season. Some NBA team will take him rather high because of his interior skills and hope the overall offensive game develops over time.

6. Wendell Carter Jr., Duke

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Stats: 13.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 2.2 BPG, 56.4% FG, 46.3% 3PT FG, 73.3% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Iona on Thursday)

Wendell Carter Jr. doesn't get nearly as much attention as teammate Marvin Bagley III or guards Trevon Duval and Gary Trent Jr. But of that freshman group, Carter may have the most upside. His opportunities with Duke are limited by those around him, yet he's still put up strong numbers.

He showed what he's capable of when Bagley missed four games last month because of injury. He averaged 16.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.0 blocks during that span (all wins) and was key in the Blue Devils' defensive uptick.

At 6'10", 259 pounds, Carter should be able to dominate against most opponents in the NCAA tourney—especially since they're likely to be so focused on Bagley.

What's Next

Carter is likely to leave Duke after this season since most mock drafts have him going in the lottery, and early on he figures to be leaned on mostly for rebounding and defense. As he gets more chances to shoot and score, his resume will only improve.

5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kentucky

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Stats: 13.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.6 SPG, 48.5% FG, 39.6% 3PT FG, 81.4% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Davidson on Thursday)

For most of this season, none of Kentucky's highly touted freshmen seemed interested in emerging as the alpha dog. Then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stepped up late in the SEC schedule and continued to rise through the Wildcats' conference tournament run, averaging 21 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists in a three-day span with 29 in the SEC final win over Tennessee.

A 6'6" point guard who can get to the rim with ease thanks to his speed, Gilgeous-Alexander can draw multiple defenders and find open teammates for easy baskets. His 1.92 assist-to-turnover ratio is a shade better than what De'Aaron Fox posted for Kentucky last season.

If Gilgeous-Alexander can hit some perimeter shots—his 21 made three-pointers are fifth-best on the team—he will be hard to stop.

What's Next

One of the lowest-rated members of Kentucky's 2017 recruiting class, Gilgeous-Alexander could end up being the highest-drafted of those who turn pro after this season. NBADraft.net has him going 12th overall, just two spots behind far more highly touted forward Kevin Knox.

4. Trae Young, Oklahoma

Kyle Phillips/Associated Press

Stats: 27.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 8.7 APG, 42.1% FG, 36.2% 3PT FG, 86.1% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Rhode Island on Thursday)

The first player in Division I history to lead the nation in scoring and assists, Trae Young remains one of the most exciting players in the game. There's little doubt he'll get his points, but the question is how much effort he'll need in the process and whether he'll be able to effectively get his teammates involved.

The 6'2" guard has nine games of 30 or more points, but the last one came on Feb. 5. And after dishing out 10 or more assists nine times in Oklahoma's first 15 games (including an NCAA record-tying 22 in late December) he's done that just twice since. Young's 161 turnovers, tops in the country, are already the most of any player in the past decade.

But as mistake-prone as Young can be, he's just as likely to explode again now that he's on the biggest stage.

What's Next

Young remains an intriguing NBA prospect, one that will fit best on a team with other weapons around him. Not being forced to create for everyone could allow him to just do his thing and not worry about the rest.

3. Collin Sexton, Alabama

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Stats: 19.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.5 APG, 44.4% FG, 34.4% 3PT FG, 78.2% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Virginia Tech on Thursday)

It's been an up-and-down year for Collin Sexton, with injuries and inconsistency making it uncertain whether he and Alabama would be in the NCAA tournament until a hot streak during the SEC tournament. The 6'3" guard averaged 26.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists in St. Louis, hitting 10 of 17 three-pointers and shooting 54.3 percent overall.

Sexton's coast-to-coast game-winning basket against Texas A&M in the first round likely clinched the Crimson Tide's NCAA bid, a score that came at the end of a 27-point effort.

With no one else on Alabama consistently putting up points, Sexton will look to put the team on his back from here on out. Whether an opponent can prevent that from happening will dictate how far the Tide advance.

What's Next

Sexton is sure to turn pro not long after Alabama's season ends, and what he does in the NCAA tournament could influence how high he's drafted. Scouts will want to see him continue to show his aggressiveness but also stay in control—though he is made for the NBA's continuation rule.

2. Marvin Bagley III, Duke

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Stats: 21.1 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.0 BPG, 60.5% FG, 37.0% 3PT FG, 62.0% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Iona on Thursday)

Apparently the only thing that can stop Marvin Bagley III is a mild knee sprain, which sidelined him for four games in February. Since coming back from that injury, he's averaged 20.8 points and 11.8 rebounds with three of his 21 double-doubles.

Duke's best asset is that it doesn't need to rely as heavily on the 6'11" forward as many other teams would; the rest of the Blue Devils' lineup is plenty deep, as shown by going 4-0 in Bagley's absence. But don't kid yourself, he's the one who will be in the middle of everything in key situations in the NCAA tourney, whether that's cleaning up the glass and putting it right back up or showing off an array of jumpers.

Bagley's one weakness is his free-throw shooting, which could be a problem late in games. He attempts more than six foul shots per game but makes less than four, which might lead opponents to employ a Hack-a-Bagley strategy rather than let him beat them with regular shots.

What's Next

Bagley will no doubt be an NBA lottery pick and could end up first overall depending on who gets that pick. CBS Sports' Gary Parrish has him going No. 1: "There's just no way, barring injuries, that he's not a high-level NBA player for a long time because of his physical gifts, unique skill set and better-than-good motor."

1. Deandre Ayton, Arizona

Leon Bennett/Getty Images

Stats: 20.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.9 BPG, 61.6% FG, 36.4% 3PT FG, 74.2% FT

NCAA Tournament Outlook (vs. Buffalo on Thursday)

Deandre Ayton heads into the NCAA tournament playing at a higher level than that of the regular season, and that level was pretty darn high. The 7'1" power forward posted Arizona's first 20-point, 20-rebound game (with 26 points) since the 1970s in the regular-season finale against California and then went off for back-to-back 32-point games (with 14 and 18 rebounds respectively) in the Pac-12 tournament semifinal and championship.

A big man who moves like a wing, Ayton has rightfully become the focal point of the Wildcats offense. He has attempted 10 or more shots in 28 of 34 games, averaging 15.5 attempts in the last four contests, and as much as the ball comes his way, his 68 turnovers are heavily on the low side.

Ayton will be a matchup nightmare for almost every team in the NCAA field since few have anyone of his size. And those who choose to double- or triple-team him will discover a great vision that has led to 15 games with at least two assists.

What's Next

All that keeps Ayton from going No. 1 on June 21 is if the front office of the team that wins the draft lottery goes with European wing Luka Doncic. Otherwise, Ayton will be first off the board and likely an instant starter for a rebuilding team looking for major production in the paint.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.