No. 8 TCU at No. 16 BYU: What Will Happen in Provo on Saturday Night?
It's Wednesday, and you can already feel the anticipation in the air on campus.
Saturday's game against TCU could define BYU's season, and will have a dramatic impact on the legacy of BYU senior QB Max Hall.
TCU has even more on the line: an undefeated season, a BCS bid and (maybe) a chance to play for a national championship.
It features a battle of two of the top 16 teams in the country. Even College Gameday, the premier college football pre-game show, is going to be here. The game has been sold out for weeks.
By all accounts, this one is a biggie.
Even BYU students that normally couldn't care less about college football are fired up for this one. There is a definite buzz around campus.
Even though this game is nearly as big as it could have been (if BYU hadn't fell to Florida State), this game will likely decide who wins the conference. Utah still might have their say, but beating BYU and TCU on the road is probably too much to ask.
Over the past two weeks, Max Hall has done the unthinkable—he has played two remarkably efficient games with no interceptions and no fumbles. Plus, it was against the traditionally "stalwart" defenses of UNLV and San Diego State. All kidding aside, if BYU is able to effectively limit their turnovers, their offense is basically unstoppable.
The only times BYU's offense has struggled at all is when they've beaten themselves. BYU has nearly the same amount of punts (17) as turnovers (15). They are No. 1 in third-down percentage conversation, No. 3 in total offense and No. 6 in points scored per game.
However, BYU faces an elite defense this week in TCU. TCU is the No. 4 pass efficiency defense in the entire country. They have allowed opposing QBs to complete only 50 percent of their passes, the best in the nation. Opposing QBs have only eight TDs to 15 interceptions against TCU this year.
But BYU has Harvey Unga, so they can just jam it down TCU's throat, right?
TCU allows only 81.2 rushing yards a game, good enough for eighth in the nation. This is truly a matchup of strength versus strength. A top five offense against another top five defense.
BYU cannot count simply on being able to outscore their opponent this week. BYU's defense is going to have to play a good game. A fear of a repeat of the Florida State game is surely lingering in the minds of BYU fans.
The biggest question heading into this game is this: Will BYU's defense show up?
TCU has two solid running backs and an experienced senior QB in Andy Dalton. They have a solid, capable offense.
Two years ago, BYU won a hard-fought game, 27-22. They were up 24-9 a minute into the third quarter, but TCU made it interesting in the end. That TCU team ended up finishing 8-5.
Who will win this year's matchup?
TCU (-3) is the slight road favorite.
Jerry Hughes (pictured above) will make things difficult for Max Hall, but not impossible.
I think BYU's got some home cookin' brewing for the Horned Frogs. If BYU keeps the game close, the 65,000-plus fans will be a huge factor. BYU will be able to move the ball against the Horned Frogs.
BYU will win the time of possession battle, and their defense will show up to play. They will stiffen in the red zone and force TCU to settle for FGs instead of touchdowns.
I'll pick BYU to win 27-23 in a nail-bitingly close game. One in which the outcome will not truly be decided until the final seconds.
In the end, this game is a true toss-up. I think there is a chance BYU gets blown off the field. But Max Hall showed he could win the big one earlier this year against Oklahoma. And I'm counting on him and the defense to come through again, in an upset.
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