New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds, Divisional NFL Betting Pick

The Minnesota Vikings (13-3) will try to defeat the New Orleans Saints (11-5) for the second time this season as small home favorites for Sunday's NFC Divisional Playoff matchup. The Vikings knocked off the Saints 29-19 in the regular-season opener as three-point home chalk with quarterback Sam Bradford under center, and this time around Case Keenum will get his shot.

NFL point spread: The Vikings opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.6-13.7 Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Saints can cover the spread

Bradford torched New Orleans with 346 passing yards and three touchdowns back in Week 1, and Keenum has topped 300 yards only once since Week 3. The Saints will not be facing the same Minnesota team offensively, as rookie running back Dalvin Cook also had 127 yards on 22 carries before suffering a torn ACL three weeks later.

Meanwhile, New Orleans has since become a balanced offensive team behind future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees and running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings are sound defensively and held the Saints to just 60 yards rushing on 21 carries in the first meeting. Former Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson accounted for 18 of those yards on six carries before getting dealt to the Arizona Cardinals later in the season because of the emergence of the rookie Kamara.

Keenum has been a great story this year as an efficient signal-caller who does not turn the ball over much with 22 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. In winning his last three starts, Keenum has four touchdowns and no picks while averaging 188 yards per game.

Smart pick

New Orleans saw its running game shut down last week and was able to fall back on the golden arm of Brees, who threw for 376 yards in a 31-26 home win over the Carolina Panthers. It should be difficult for bettors to back Keenum and the Vikings in this spot when Brees is a superior player on the other side with much more postseason experience, including winning a Super Bowl ring.

Before losing at Minnesota in Week 1, the Saints had won the previous four meetings. Look for New Orleans to pull off the upset as a road dog.

NFL betting trends

The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against the Vikings.

The total has gone over in seven of the Saints' last nine games against the Vikings.

The Vikings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.