College Football Championship 2018: Playoff Schedule and Bracket Predictions
College football's postseason began in earnest on Saturday with the commencement of bowl games, a 40-game lineup of which six are already in the books.
The big ones are still more than two weeks away, though. That would be the College Football Playoff semifinals, set for New Year's Day. Here's a quick breakdown of the schedule for those games, followed by detailed analysis and a pick for each contest.
| Rose Bowl | No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Georgia | Jan. 1 | 5 p.m. | OK -1.5 |
| Sugar Bowl | No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Alabama | Jan. 1 | 8:45 p.m. | ALA -2.5 |
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Oklahoma Sooners vs. Georgia Bulldogs
As successful as Oklahoma and Georgia have been, they have never met before on the football field. That their first clash comes in the College Football Playoff makes it all the more notable.
Oklahoma (12-1) is in the playoffs for the second time in three years, losing to Clemson in the Orange Bowl in 2015, but the Sooners come in quite hot having won eight in a row. Georgia (12-1) is making its playoff debut, getting here by taking out Auburn in the SEC title game to avenge its only loss.
OddsShark.com has Oklahoma as a slight favorite, but ESPN's FPI sees things a little differently, giving Georgia a 53 percent chance of winning this semifinal.
With that small of a margin, that means this game could come down to one or two plays. Might that be a long pass play by Heisman Trophy-winning Oklahoma senior quarterback Baker Mayfield or from one of Georgia's standout senior rushers, Nick Chubb or Sony Michel?
Mayfield is completing 71 percent of his passes with 41 touchdowns and just five interceptions on 369 pass attempts, but Georgia's pass defense is unlike anything he's seen this year. The Bulldogs are second nationally against the pass, allowing 158.3 yards per game, with only four opponents managing a completion percentage of better than 60 percent.
Georgia's run-heavy attack has produced a school-record 3,426 yards and 36 TDs, with Chubb and Michel responsible for 2,123 yards and 26 TDs. Oklahoma has limited foes to 4.02 yards per carry on the ground, though on four occasions they've been run on for more than 200 yards with Kansas State and West Virginia each managing four rushing TDs.
Expect a back-and-forth affair, but in the end the top player in the country will lead the Sooners into the national championship game.
Prediction: Oklahoma 30, Georgia 24
Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Their first two meetings were instant classics, each claiming a national title in the previous two seasons by downing the other. Now comes the rubber match, albeit in a semifinal instead of the final, and the oddsmakers and metrics give the edge to No. 4 seed Alabama instead of defending national champion Clemson.
After opening as a pick'em, OddsShark.com now has the Crimson Tide favored by 2.5 points. ESPN's FPI has a similar thinking, giving the Tigers only a 42.1 percent chance of returning to the title game.
This may seem surprising since Alabama (11-1) lost its last game, 26-14 at Auburn, and because it didn't win, the SEC West will not have played in 37 days when the Sugar Bowl kicks off on Jan. 1. Much of the lean toward the Tide may be due to the expectation they'll be getting back a number of injured players who missed considerable time during the regular season.
Saban provided a rundown of how some of these on-the-mend players were doing on Friday when Alabama began bowl practice, per Marq Burnett of SEC Country:
Each defensive contributor Alabama gets back will help level the playing field in a game that figures to be light on explosive plays. Both teams are among the top 10 nationally in plays of 10 or more yards allowed, and combined, they've been on the losing side of only 11 plays of 40 or more yards.
Clemson allows 12.8 points per game, Alabama yields just 11.5. The Tigers contained Alabama sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts in last year's national championship, holding him to 194 yards of total offense, the same amount it managed last time out against Auburn.
The X-factor in this matchup is Clemson junior quarterback Kelly Bryant, who has been effective in succeeding Deshaun Watson. He has thrown for 2,678 yards and 13 touchdowns on 67.4 percent passing while rushing for 646 yards and 11 TDs. He's become more of a passer of late, going 63-of-85 for 754 yards and six TDs in the last three games.
Prediction: Clemson 23, Alabama 20
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