Biggest Red Flags of the Young NBA Season
The "how to" book on understanding an NBA season opens with a chapter on not overreacting to early developments. There's an extra emphasis in the 2017-18 version due to the shortened preseason seemingly contributing to sloppy play around the Association.
But not every red flag should be ignored. While most may dissipate over the course of the campaign, a handful can be traced back to the early alarms.
Five trends have us worried for various reasons. Some are confirmations of previous worries. Other issues are too serious to be ignored.
We try not to rain on too many parades this early in the slate. But if these areas aren't addressed sooner than later, they have potential to become season-long headaches.
Chicago's Dysfunction
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Who's the 2018 draft target, Chicago Bulls fans? Luka Doncic? Marvin Bagley III? Michael Porter Jr.? Whoever that player is, never forget his face. Put it on your desktop. Get it on a coffee mug. You're going to need to see a lot of it to help get through this season.
We all knew the Bulls would be atrocious. You don't deal Jimmy Butler for Zach LaVine's torn ACL and Kris Dunn's disappearing potential without taking a serious step back in the standings. Even still, I'm not sure the Windy City was ready for more than half the roster shooting sub-38 percent or the Bulls owning a comically abysmal minus-15.1 net efficiency rating.
And I'm certain no one was prepared for the punch that sidelined both Nikola Mirotic (facial fractures and concussion) and Bobby Portis (team suspension). That's how a year shifts from dreary to disastrous.
ESPN.com's Nick Friedell wrote:
"The narrative that Hoiberg and the Bulls had been trying to build since the beginning of training camp about the young group playing hard and coming together as one was destroyed with one swing. ... Now, on top of the losing that is sure to encompass a team devoid of much talent, they must deal with the lingering effects of the fight."
Chicago felt it "set a direction" with the Butler trade, but that might already need resetting. Head coach Fred Hoiberg has seen his seat warming for the last year, and this front office has underwhelmed with win-now attempts and this recent rebuilding strategy. When fists are flying, a housecleaning might be overdue.
Lonzo Ball's Shooting
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It's possible—albeit rare—for a point guard to dominate without scoring. But what happens if that point is potentially having the worst shooting season ever?
That sounds hyperbolic, which seems to be the hoops world's preferred language when discussing Los Angeles Lakers rookie Lonzo Ball. Except, there aren't any exaggerations being made here. Ball is on pace to post the worst field-goal percentage (33.3) and true shooting percentage (40.1) of any player to clear 2,000 minutes during the three-point era.
This is bad, even if scoring doesn't crack the top five on his to-do list. His floor game is phenomenal, but its impact is dulled by him not being a threat from anywhere. His three ball hasn't translated (28.6 percent), and his free-throw shooting is anemic (55.6 percent). And scouts were leery of his two-point scoring long before he faced his first NBA defense.
Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman wrote:
"Lonzo Ball lacks both the skills and explosiveness to score in volume inside the arc during half-court possessions. He's missing a reliable pull-up and floater, having made just 12 shots all season last year that weren't layups, dunks or threes. And between his skinny, 190-pound frame and lack of jets around the basket, finishing at the rim could be far more challenging than it was at UCLA."
Granted, Ball needs more scoring help than the Lakers have given him. Sprinkle some stars around him, and his preternatural passing might look like one of the Association's sharpest tools. But he won't be a free-agent recruiter without some semblance of a scoring niche. Right now, he is the biggest statistical hindrance on this offense (15.5 points worse per 100 possessions when he's playing).
Minnesota's Defense
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The Minnesota Timberwolves rank eighth in offensive efficiency (106.2) and 23rd in net efficiency (minus-4.8). That's how atrocious the defense has been, and since there were concerns carried over from last year, it's not too soon to worry about this problem shrinking Minnesota's ceiling.
"Right now, we're getting into scoring games," Wolves point guard Jeff Teague told Bleacher Report. "We got a lot of guys who can score the ball, so we're able to win some. But down the stretch against really good teams, that's not going to happen."
If Minnesota can solve this puzzle, it's otherwise ready to launch.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins are the only teammate trio to have each posted a top-20 scoring average last season. The Wolves spent their summer adding veterans who know how to win, and they haven't come close to extinguishing the growth potential of their younger players.
But what if this defense is fundamentally flawed? There are a frightening amount of defensive sieves on the roster, none more worrisome than Towns (worst center in defensive real plus-minus last season, per ESPN.com) and Wiggins (third-worst small forward). If those two can't up their effort, awareness and discipline on defense, Minnesota will be skewered during the Western Conference playoffs.
Between Butler, Taj Gibson and coach Tom Thibodeau, the Wolves have provided the defensive direction this roster needs to follow. But so far, it seems any wisdom being shared is falling on deaf ears.
Markelle Fultz's Shoulder
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Markelle Fultz is a highly touted Philadelphia 76ers rookie. Markelle Fultz is out indefinitely. The two go hand in hand anymore, so this has a rite-of-passage feel for the 19-year-old No. 1 overall pick.
Fultz's path to the injury report was long, confusing and entirely frustrating. The first signs of trouble with his right shoulder came not from a medical scan or nasty tumble, but rather a reworked and funky shooting form. Then, his agent brought word of a cortisone shot, but he originally told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski that Fultz had fluid drained from his achy joint.
Philly kept largely quiet on this, save for distancing itself from the shot change and later wondering aloud if Fultz's new shot was to blame for the shoulder pain before finally shelving him. The Sixers are writing the syllabus for Mishandling a Prospect 101.
"Fultz is not an enemy of the team; he's their No. 1 overall pick!" CBSSports.com's Jack Maloney wrote. "They should be doing everything possible to make sure he's healthy and comfortable with the franchise. Going to the media and placing blame on him in any way...is the opposite of that goal and makes no sense."
Who knows where this story goes next. Even if Fultz felt good enough to play, his discomfort was obvious. He was 3-of-16 outside the restricted area, 6-of-12 at the foul line and had yet to attempt a shot from beyond 14 feet. He wasn't the same player who had risen to the top of his draft class, and Philly faces plenty of work to get him back to that level.
Cleveland's Struggles
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It took three games for the new-look Cleveland Cavaliers to raise an eyebrow with a 19-point home loss to the Orlando Magic. It took seven games to necessitate what ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin described as an "air-it-out meeting" on the heels of losses to the New Orleans Pelicans and New York Knicks by a combined 41 points.
"The last couple [losses] are unacceptable, and the only way we're going to be able to get out of it is to put the work in—as players, as coaches," head coach Tyronn Lue said, per McMenamin. "And we're going to do that. ... When you lose to teams the way we've been getting beat, it's unacceptable."
LeBron James thinks it's too early to worry, and he's not alone. No Eastern Conference team has toppled LeBron's in seven years, and the field looks further behind with multiple All-Stars leaving in free agency and Gordon Hayward going down on opening night.
Still, I'm comfortably deeming this officially concerning. The aforementioned assembly gave way to yet another double-digit home loss. The defense is the league's worst, and the offense isn't explosive enough to compensate (16th). Only three teams have worse net ratings, and they all entered this year bound for the bottom—the Bulls, Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings.
Does anyone see a healthy Isaiah Thomas completely solving Cleveland's issues? Does anyone even know if Thomas will be fully healthy at some point? Those are tricky questions, and they're far from the only ones. The Cavs have the King and a bunch of questions—about age, fatigue, defense, shooting, chemistry, focus and injuries.
Other than that, though, everything is cool in Cleveland.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
