The 1 Hot Take We're Buying for Every Top NBA Rookie
The first week initiates NBA hot-take season.
Perspectives on rookies can change after finally seeing them play. And there has been a ton of buzz, both in terms of excitement and disappointment, regarding the 2017 draft class, plus Ben Simmons.
Is Simmons the NBA's next unicorn? Is Markelle Fultz a bust? How does Gordon Hayward's injury affect Jayson Tatum? Will the Phoenix Suns regret not trading Josh Jackson to get Kyrie Irving? Did the New York Knicks even draft a point guard?
We dished out one hot take you can buy into for each high-profile rookie seeing minutes.
Ben Simmons (Philadelphia 76ers, PG/PF)
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Hot take: Ben Simmons is unicorn good.
The only college player in 25 years (minimum 12 games) to average at least 16 points, 10 rebounds and four assists, Simmons' unicorn numbers and versatility at LSU have carried right over to the pros.
His first four NBA games have been convincing. Bigs can't contain his ball-handling and quickness. His size, vision and passing skills are leading to open scoring chances for teammates. His athleticism, coordination and ambidexterity are translating to boards and easy baskets at the rim.
And none of that is going to change, even without a jumper.
A routine threat to triple-double from here on out, Simmons is on track to enter the tier of budding All-Stars that features unique, unicorn mismatches like Kristaps Porzingis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid.
Markelle Fultz (Philadelphia 76ers, PG/SG)
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Hot take: Markelle Fultz is still the best prospect from the 2017 draft.
Fultz didn't just suddenly forget how to shoot after making 2.1 threes per game at a 41.3 percent clip in college. His jumper played a major role in the 23.2 points he averaged.
Shoulder soreness is clearly the cause behind Fultz's suspect start, which has seen him pass up outside shots, change his form and brick free throws. His agent confirmed the rookie recently received a cortisone shot to reduce swelling and pain, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Assuming the Philadelphia 76ers' medical staff can identify and treat the problem—even if it means sitting him out—we'll eventually see the same Fultz whom the majority of scouts pegged as the draft's top prospect.
James Harden, a popular comparison for the Sixers rookie, averaged fewer than 10 points per game his first year in Oklahoma City. And that was after two seasons of college. Fultz just turned 19 years old in May.
It's too early to jump off the wagon. The Sixers drafted Fultz for his long-term potential, which he'll get back on track to reaching once he starts practicing at full strength and building back confidence.
Lonzo Ball (Los Angeles Lakers, PG)
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Hot take: Lonzo Ball already recorded his season-high in scoring.
Ball went for 29 points against the Phoenix Suns during his second NBA game. Just don't get used to him erupting like that. Hot take: Those 29 points will be a season-high.
Without much of a mid-range game or explosiveness, Ball isn't a dangerous scorer inside the arc. He took advantage of a soft Suns defense and a green light that led to 27 field-goal attempts.
He'll still make a positive impact this year with his leadership and facilitating instincts, but Ball won't even average the most points among Los Angeles Lakers rookies (Kyle Kuzma).
Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics, SF/PF)
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Hot take: Jayson Tatum will benefit significantly from the absence of Gordon Hayward.
It almost feels inappropriate to acknowledge someone else may benefit from Gordon Hayward's fractured tibia. But it's worth addressing the effects of the injury, and in this case, Hayward's absence is going to help Tatum.
He's been seeing scoring chances and shots he wouldn't have gotten had another All-Star been in the lineup. Gordon plus Kyrie Irving and Al Horford would have meant a lot more standing around and spot-up shooting for Tatum, who was already looking at a major adjustment from top option to complementary role player.
More looks at the basket, chances to create and freedom to make mistakes are going to speed up his development and call for less of an adjustment. Averaging 14.8 points through his first four games—something he wouldn't have done alongside Hayward—Tatum is suddenly a strong Rookie of the Year contender.
Josh Jackson (Phoenix Suns, SF)
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Hot take: The Phoenix Suns were right not to trade Josh Jackson in a deal for Kyrie Irving.
The Suns reportedly (per Cleveland.com's Joe Vardon) could have had Kyrie Irving, an established All-Star in his prime, if they were willing to trade Jackson.
They were right to keep the unproven rookie, even with Eric Bledsoe on the way out. Having seen it fail with Bledsoe and Devin Booker, the Suns should try a different formula than pairing volume shot-hunters in the backcourt. An Irving-Booker recipe is too similar.
Irving wouldn't have made a significant difference in Phoenix, where the Suns are too far away. They still need to be thinking three years down the road, and it's questionable if Irving would even be fully motivated during a rebuild after competing for titles in Cleveland.
Jackson, who's off to an encouraging start offensively, brings intensity and defensive potential the Suns' core needs. Finishing the season with Booker, Jackson and a top-three pick (in a strong draft) should be the plan and goal.
Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss, Alex Len and Tyson Chandler should be their trade chips. Jackson shows too much promise and fits too well.
De'Aaron Fox (Sacramento Kings, PG)
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Hot take: De'Aaron Fox will be the best all-around rookie guard in 2017-18.
Markelle Fultz hit a wall in the preseason. Lonzo Ball's scoring and defense won't be reliable. Dennis Smith Jr.'s production will be clouded by inconsistency. Fox will have the best rookie year among the guards.
His speed and athleticism already appear tailor-made for a faster, more spaced NBA. He's averaging 15.0 points and 5.0 assists through four games, tapping into his jets in the open floor and quickness attacking off the bounce.
The floater, runner and pull-up have also looked good and been key for him early.
He might not put up Ball's assist numbers or match Smith's scoring output, which could cost him Rookie of the Year votes. But Fox will give the Sacramento Kings enough of each while staying efficient playing to his strengths alongside or behind George Hill.
And he'll make the bigger difference defensively with pressure and plays on the ball.
Jonathan Isaac (Orlando Magic, PF)
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Hot take: Jonathan Isaac is a great prospect, but not for the Orlando Magic.
The Magic finished No. 29 last year in three-point percentage and passed on the draft's top shooter in Lauri Markkanen. They needed an upgrade at point guard and decided Dennis Smith Jr. wasn't the one.
Instead, they took Jonathan Isaac, a project who is years away with strengths and weaknesses similar to Aaron Gordon's.
Raw and limited as a shot-creator, Isaac would have benefited from playing alongside more threatening scorers and playmakers. Instead, he's suiting up for one of the league's worst offenses behind Gordon and Nikola Vucevic—with no path to the starting lineup unless a trade is made.
Isaac's potential two-way versatility is still exciting, but it's worth questioning how fast or well he'll develop it coming off Orlando's bench.
Lauri Markkanen (Chicago Bulls, PF)
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Hot take: Lauri Markkanen will be an elite NBA shooter.
Markkanen is on his way toward joining the NBA's elite shooters club, which requires a 40 percent three-ball.
After converting at a 42.3 percent clip at Arizona, he's already made 10 of his first 22 NBA triples in just three games.
Over the years, he's backed up his numbers with strong eye-test results that highlight smooth, effortless mechanics and 7'0" size to easily release over defenders.
He still has work to do on his body and inside game, but Markkanen is already one of the league's most dangerous spot-up and pick-and-pop shooters.
Frank Ntilikina (New York Knicks, G)
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Hot take: Frank Ntilikina isn't a point guard.
With 6'5" size and long arms, Ntilikina jumps out as a mismatch for a point guard, where the New York Knicks want him to play. But that's not his NBA position.
It wasn't in France, either. Ntilikina frequently worked off the ball for Strasbourg IG. And he remained efficient for a teenager in a pro league, playing to his strengths as an open shot-maker and ball-mover—and away from his weaknesses as a creator.
Ntilikina doesn't have an explosive first step and won't blow by anyone without a ball screen.
The hope for the Knicks is their rookie follows Malcolm Brogdon's path to success. But they'd be better off drafting, signing or acquiring another point guard to pair with Ntilikina, who's more of a three-and-D role player than lead playmaker.
Dennis Smith Jr. (Dallas Mavericks, PG)
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Hot take: Dennis Smith Jr. = stats over impact.
Too athletic and skilled, Smith is a lock to produce. But how far will the stats eventually take the Dallas Mavericks?
Despite acknowledging a poor situation at North Carolina State, scouts still knocked his inconsistency, decision-making and leadership. A non-factor during multiple key matchups, he also looked indifferent during games when things weren't going his way.
Smith is talented enough to put up Eric Bledsoe's 2016-17 numbers: 21.1 points, 6.3 assists. But for a lead guard, reaching All-Star status typically means carrying a team to the playoffs. We're not ready to say Smith will ever make that type of individual impact, even if the stats are there.
Malik Monk (Charlotte Hornets, SG)
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Hot take: Malik Monk will be better coming off the bench.
Monk can go off for points in bunches. We've seen him drill contested pull-up after deep three, like he did during his 47-point eruption versus North Carolina. But he also shot 40 percent or worse in 18 of 38 games in college.
Streakiness, caused by a jumper-heavy shot selection, makes Monk better suited for sixth-man duties.
They'll call for his instant offense off the bench. He'll just have a shorter leash compared to starters, considering he won't have much to offer during games his shot isn't working.
Inconsistency and a limited defensive ceiling point to Monk holding the most value as a second-unit scorer who'll play fourth quarters and close games on the nights when he's hot or the team needs offense.
Kyle Kuzma (Los Angeles Lakers, F)
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Hot take: Kyle Kuzma was the steal of the draft.
Buy Kuzma's hot start. He's the steal of the draft—the Los Angeles Lakers' future starting forward they got 27 picks deep.
Ever since leaving Utah, he's looked like a lottery talent, from the NBA combine, where he was a standout during five-on-fives, to summer league, preseason and now the regular season.
Kuzma is showing off shooting range and shot creativity we didn't see as much of in college. His versatility was designed for today's 4 position, which values the three-ball and playmaking skills. Kuzma has proved to be a threat both from behind the arc and off the dribble, with the ability to initiate the break, attack a closeout and score or pass on the move.
The Lakers should be thinking about moving Julius Randle or Larry Nance Jr. to create more time for Kuzma, who already offers more than both.
