Don't Look Now: 7 Teams That Could Shock the NBA This Season
Is the conclusion to the 2017-18 NBA season already scripted? Probably. The Golden State Warriors are heavy favorites to repeat as champs, and as long as the Cleveland Cavaliers employ LeBron James, they'll be expected to escape the East.
But last year's Finals were locked in from the opening date, and the season still surprised on multiple levels.
Who had Russell Westbrook going Oscar Robertson on everyone? Or the Houston Rockets snatching the West's third seed? Or the Miami Heat reversing an 11-30 start with a 30-11 finish?
The list could go on and on, proving once again we never know as much as we think.
That same message will be repeatedly delivered during the upcoming campaign. We're going to get out in front of those surprises, though, with a prescient preview of this season's shock-providers. Each is equipped to dramatically outperform projections (based on over/under win totals from OddsShark), dropping jaws and frightening on-paper favorites in the process.
Brooklyn Nets
1 of 7
Vegas O/U: 27.5 wins
Shock Potential: 38 wins, in playoff contention
If you ever need a clean-up crew to handle a colossal mess, see if Brooklyn Nets general manager Sean Marks is available.
The shrewd executive—groomed by the San Antonio Spurs—has done a masterful job of building with limited resources. By renting cap space and keeping active in the trade market, he has given (relative) optimism to a previously hopeless franchise. And through the hiring of head coach Kenny Atkinson, Marks helped usher in an outside-the-box offense designed to make the whole greater than the individual parts.
Will any of that make the Nets good this season? The odds are super-slim to none. But they may not be the punching bag they've been the past two years.
Even without a No. 1 option, Brooklyn keeps constant pressure on opposing defenses. No one played at a faster pace last season and only three teams launched more threes. And the Nets are better equipped now to capitalize on those chances.
With a healthy Jeremy Lin and former No. 2 pick D'Angelo Russell, Brooklyn has two attacking guards who can orchestrate the offense. Allen Crabbe could be a welcome supply of spacing, while DeMarre Carroll might scratch an itch for perimeter defense. Timofey Mozgov is limited, but at least he puts a big body on the back line of Brooklyn's 23rd-ranked defense.
The youth collection isn't great, but it's more promising than it has been, especially if Russell can properly develop his wealth of offensive talents. And while none were lottery picks, there's intrigue in the likes of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris LeVert, Isaiah Whitehead and rookie first-rounder Jarrett Allen.
Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post wrote in July:
"The presence of those young talents will make Brooklyn a watchable team next season in a way they weren't for much of the past 17 months. And the presence of veterans alongside them...will allow the Nets to have a puncher's chance of finishing several spots higher than the third-worst record in the NBA they had two years ago and the league-worst 20-62 mark they had last season."
Denver Nuggets
2 of 7
Vegas O/U: 45.5 wins
Shock Potential: 52 wins, Western Conference semifinalist
The Denver Nuggets haven't had an All-Star since 2010-11 (Carmelo Anthony), but health permitting, they'll have two compelling candidates this season. That's the basic requirement to jostle for a top-four seed in the Western Conference, and if the Nuggets are doing that in April, they'll have surprised even people who expected a step forward.
Nikola Jokic is one of the Association's hottest stocks. Defensive flaws and all, the Joker held top-10 ratings in the most commonly cited catch-all categories—sixth in real plus-minus, eighth in player efficiency rating.
Jokic, who doesn't turn 23 until February, wasn't even a full-time starter until Dec. 15. But once the switch was made, his numbers erupted (19.2 points on 58.7 percent shooting, 10.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists) and Denver's offense climbed atop the efficiency rankings. The slick-passing center tallied six triple-doubles, putting him behind only Russell Westbrook, James Harden and LeBron James.
"Any cutter who plays with [Jokic] becomes an open threat on every possession," Rob Mahoney of Sports Illustrated wrote. "Shooters on his team find the ball delivered directly into their pocket just when the defense has shifted its attention."
Jokic isn't Denver's only top-notch distributor in the frontcourt. That's also the best part of Mason Plumlee's game and an underrated weapon for perpetually underrated All-Star Paul Millsap. The latter's addition in free agency not only signals the Nuggets' intent to win now, it's also the biggest hope for repairing their 29th-ranked defense.
Gary Harris is a two-way stud. Jamal Murray has breakout potential due to his range and off-the-dribble shooting. Depth is an obvious strength and could be enhanced by one or more wild-card youngsters emerging.
If the Nuggets have any clear weaknesses, they can hit the open market and address them with trade chips like Emmanuel Mudiay and Kenneth Faried.
Los Angeles Clippers
3 of 7
Vegas O/U: 43.5 wins
Shock Potential: 50 wins, Western Conference semifinalist
The Los Angeles Clippers made a $173 million wager on Blake Griffin being able to carry them through the post-Chris Paul era. History says if Griffin stays healthy, it could be a smart gamble.
In 2013-14, the championship-hopefuls had to put all their eggs in the Griffin basket when Paul lost 18 contests to a separated right shoulder. L.A. went 12-6 without the point god, as point-Griffin supplied 27.5 points on 55.4 percent shooting and 4.4 assists on a nightly basis. The effort would help Griffin secure a third-place finish in that campaign's MVP voting.
Griffin can carry an offense. The Clippers hope he won't need to.
They finally found their missing small forward in Danilo Gallinari (18.8 points per game over the last two seasons) and snagged the most convincing Jamal Crawford clone in Lou Williams, who posted personal bests in points (17.5) and threes (2.0 in 2016-17). Newcomer Milos Teodosic is already a passing wizard. Austin Rivers has shown flashes of high-level two-way play.
The defensive end could get wonky if Gallinari and Griffin hemorrhage points at the forward positions. But Patrick Beverley is a pest the full length of the floor, not to mention a two-time All-Defensive selection. And DeAndre Jordan has been a top-10 rebounder and shot-blocker in each of the last four seasons.
"There is a 50-win team in here with Griffin as fulcrum, lording over the action from the center of the foul line as everyone orbits around him," ESPN's Zach Lowe wrote. "They'll play faster, attack the rim more, and generate their usual bounty of foul shots. They are motivated to prove they can win without Paul."
Losing a superstar is typically a crushing gut-punch, and the Clippers probably won't be the same without Paul. Griffin and Gallinari are almost annual victims of the injury bug, and there are questions regarding the construction of this roster. It's light on both wings and versatility, staples of almost every elite team in today's game.
But Griffin has taken flight without Paul before, and maybe there's enough room on Air Blake to help L.A. soar above its expectations.
Milwaukee Bucks
4 of 7
Vegas O/U: 47.5 wins
Shock Potential: 53 wins, Eastern Conference Finalist
Sports fans and analysts often find themselves in endless searches for the next "insert transcendent talent here." But the real excitement comes from uncovering an unprecedented star, or what the Milwaukee Bucks seem to have in 22-year-old superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo.
"In an age of versatility, Giannis is the ultimate unicorn," ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz wrote. "Giannis sports a point guard's handle, a wing's agility and a big man's reach. If and when the long-range stroke arrives, the Bucks enter a future without a ceiling."
Antetokounmpo makes other do-everything players look limited. He's spent more than 10 percent of his career minutes at each of the 1 through 4 spots, and he can play small-ball 5 in a pinch. Last season, he became the first player ever to post top-20 finishes in total points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals—and he paced the Bucks in all five categories.
Milwaukee isn't a one-man team, although it could be a one-star squad. That's probably why most projections have the Bucks battling for no better than a mid-level playoff spot. However, because Antetokounmpo's impact is so great and the supporting cast fits so snugly around him, they could have the best chance to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics for Eastern Conference supremacy.
Milwaukee needs plenty of breaks to reach that point.
For starters, Khris Middleton needs to return to the form he found in 2015-16 (20th in real plus-minus). Jabari Parker has to hit the ground running whenever he returns from his second ACL tear. Malcolm Brogdon and Thon Maker need another leap forward, while Tony Snell and Greg Monroe can't fall back. If Rashad Vaughn is ever going to prove his NBA worth, this is the time.
Get Antetokounmpo to an MVP level and enough support around him, though, and the Bucks could be a team no one wants to face in the second season.
Minnesota Timberwolves
5 of 7
Vegas O/U: 48.5 wins
Shock Potential: 55 wins, Western Conference Finalist
Hype came a year early for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who were doomed by dreadful defense and growing pains during a 51-loss 2016-17 campaign.
But reinforcements came early and often this summer, starting with All-Star swingman Jimmy Butler. The 28-year-old became a Tom Thibodeau favorite at the defensive end, but his offensive improvements (career highs of 23.9 points and 5.5 assists last season) put him in the discussion of NBA elites.
Point production was already a Timberpups' strength. Karl-Anthony Towns dominated inside and out as a sophomore, en route to averaging 25.1 points, 2.7 assists and 1.2 triples (on 36.7 percent shooting). Andrew Wiggins wasn't too far behind, tallying 23.6 points and showing his most perimeter promise to date (1.3 makes, 35.6 percent).
Butler's arrival relieves pressure on the youth. He and Taj Gibson, another Thibodeau disciple, will help start righting the many defensive wrongs. Between the toughness, experience and firepower added (hello, Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague), Minnesota should be better prepared for the late-game situations it couldn't handle in 2016-17, when it blew 22 double-digit leads and had the 25th-ranked clutch efficiency rating.
The Timberwolves could use more shooting. Depth looks like an issue. Maturation is a must, specifically playing both ends.
But if everything falls right, Minnesota has the weapons needed to make that Bay Area-based juggernaut sweat.
"Yes, Golden State will win. Yes, it will probably be a sweep," CBSSports.com's Matt Moore wrote. "But Towns gives the Warriors fits, and they have the past two seasons. Throw in Butler, whose Bulls were pesky versus the Warriors, and they have the personnel to challenge."
New Orleans Pelicans
6 of 7
Vegas O/U: 39.5 wins
Shock Potential: 45 wins, Western Conference semifinalist
The New Orleans Pelicans might have two players who are the best at their positions. How many other teams can make that claim? And how many that can are projected—as the Pelicans are—to be fighting for a seventh or eighth seed?
Granted, New Orleans can't make an apples-to-apples comparison with any contemporary since its roster composition is as unique as the city itself. But still, in DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis, the Pelicans have two players under the age of 28 with seven All-Star selections between them. And they plan to leverage their combined talents as best they can.
"We're going to have those guys on the floor as much as we possibly can," Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry said, per NOLA.com's William Guillory. "That's one of the advantages that we have—having those guys out there and having teams try to match up with them, especially the so-called 'small-ball' teams."
It's a zig against a nearly league-wide zag to perimeter-based attacks. Maybe it's an antiquated approach with little chance of success. But if any two-big combo can make it work, this could be it. Davis and Cousins were the only teammate tandem to hold top-10 scoring averages, top-10 rebounding averages and top 12 PERs.
Of course, New Orleans' greater concerns have little to do with its throwback twin-towers model. The Pelicans appear painfully light around their stars.
If Jrue Holiday stays healthy—he hasn't topped 67 appearances since 2012-13—he's not a bad third wheel. But Rajon Rondo has one above-average PER in the last three years, and he's already hurt. Solomon Hill's torn hamstring thinned a small forward spot that was underwhelming to begin with. The bench was anemic last season (24th in net efficiency) and isn't guaranteed to improve.
Philadelphia 76ers
7 of 7
Vegas O/U: 41.5 wins
Shock Potential: 48 wins, Eastern Conference semifinalist
If the basketball gods promised a clean bill of health, how many players would you rather build around than Joel Embiid—five? Maybe fewer?
The social media-savvy 7-footer has spent all but 31 games of his NBA career either injured, rehabbing or protected in a glass case. But man, those 31 tilts were hoops at the highest level. His per-game marks of 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, 2.1 assists and 1.2 triples were unprecedented. And they were compiled in a mere 25.4 minutes a night.
He's only played once since the Philadelphia 76ers signed him to a fingers-crossed five-year, $146.5 million extension. And once again, he dazzled during limited floor time. He tallied 22 points (buoyed by 14 free throws), seven boards, three dimes and one rejection in only 15 minutes of work.
"I didn't have a lot of time on the court," Embiid said, per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "So I feel like I'm still behind."
That's a terrifying thought. Here's another: The Sixers have surrounded him with the No. 1 pick from each of the last two drafts. There's 6'10" playmaker Ben Simmons, who's had his own health problems but could be one of the Association's premier passers already. Then you have Markelle Fultz, who might have the highest ceiling and floor of the 2017 draft picks.
That's a wow! collection of talent. It's unproven and littered with injury issues, but it's packed with potential.
Plus, Dario Saric does a little of everything on offense. JJ Redick and a healthy Jerryd Bayless will improve the spacing. Robert Covington packs a powerful three-and-D punch. Amir Johnson adds experience and toughness. Richaun Holmes both blocks and makes shots. And don't discount the value of Jahlil Okafor as either a second-team scorer or—maybe more likely—a trade chip.
But Philly's chances to shock the Association hinge on its youth. If they're ready and healthy, the Sixers won't only be a playoff team, they'll be a tough out.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
