Predicting Progression, Regression for Washington Redskins' Top Players

Six members of the Washington Redskins' offense will experience fluctuations in their production during the 2017 NFL season, including the team's starting quarterback, who is set to play a second year adorned with the franchise tag.

Kirk Cousins will throw passes to a refreshed group of receivers, as different players will assume greater degrees of importance following the departures of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon.

Washington's new-look pass attack will look for increased production from the running game, but 2016's lead back will experience a dip in his numbers. New faces and an offense still primarily geared to the pass will limit what Rob Kelley can do.

At least the Redskins' most productive defensive player won't find himself limited during 2017. Outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan will remain Washington's most destructive and prolific pass-rusher, buoyed by the improved personnel at both his position and along the D-line.

Read on for a full list of all seven members of the Redskins whose production will either progress or regress in the new season.

Terrelle Pryor, WR

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Signing Terrelle Pryor on a cost-effective, one-year deal was one of the smartest moves Washington made this offseason. The team earned a burgeoning playmaker at wide receiver, but did it on terms that ensure the onus is on Pryor to prove last season's numbers were no fluke.

For a refresher, Pryor's numbers from 2016 compared favorably to those Jackson put up during his final year at Redskins Park, per NFL Research. Of course, Pryor's production came with a few encouraging footnotes—it was his first year playing receiver and he was catching passes as a member of the 1-15 Cleveland Browns, the worst team in football a year ago.

A carousel of indifferent quarterbacks in Ohio couldn't prevent Pryor from topping 1,000 yards. The fact he'll now link up with a Pro Bowl passer in Cousins means Pryor's production should progress in 2017.

It's a view shared by many around the league, with some already setting gaudy targets for the athletic 28-year-old. Among them, Al Saunders thinks the Pro Bowl beckons for Pryor, per ESPN's Pat McManamon: "I will be shocked if he isn't in the Pro Bowl. He's going to have that kind of year."

One-time Redskins offensive coordinator Saunders was Pryor's position coach in Cleveland. He thinks the converted quarterback has already set the tone to dominate in his new position by what he achieved last season, per ESPN's John Keim:

"Working with Terrelle Pryor was a delight. He was a special guy. When you look at it, one year, never playing receiver in his life and going for over 1,000 yards, 70-some catches—what he did was unprecedented. In one year. And I've worked with Antwaan Randle El and other guys that have made the transition from quarterback to wide receiver, but I think history will say that what Terrelle has done is phenomenal."

Pryor will be effective in D.C., but there won't be a quantum leap in his production, despite Saunders' confidence. The primary reason is Pryor won't be the main man in Washington's passing game the way he was for the Browns.

While Cleveland was lacking in other credible, big-play targets, Cousins can spread the ball between slot specialist Jamison Crowder, move tight end Jordan Reed and pass-catching back Chris Thompson, among others.

Pryor's numbers will improve from 2016 thanks to the superior talent around him, but there won't be a significant spike in his production.

Prediction: Progress

Jamison Crowder, WR

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One reason why Pryor's numbers will be solid but won't reach lofty heights is the presence of Crowder. The diminutive wideout is a prime candidate for a breakout season in his third year with the Redskins.

Head coach Jay Gruden is already planning to get more from the 5'9", 177-pounder who caught 67 passes for 847 yards and seven touchdowns last season. Gruden has hailed Crowder's ability to play both inside and outside, per Mark Bullock of the Washington Post.

More than where he lines up, the variety and nuance of Crowder's route-running will key gaudy production from 2015's fourth-round pick.

Gruden talked up Crowder's skills out of his breaks, per Bullock: "He's great on option routes, he can run vertical stems. He can run just about anything you ask him to run. ... He gets himself open because he's got a great feel. He's got quickness in and out of his breaks. He plays a lot longer than his size. He has got really long arms. He goes up and gets balls."

Such versatility makes Crowder a mismatch against any type of coverage.

Cousins has steadily been finding out how good Crowder can be. Now the two won't waste time forging a genuine rapport as the passing game adjusts post-Garcon and Jackson.

With two 1,000-yard receivers gone, others must step up, meaning Crowder can expect to see a lot more of the ball in 2017. Expect a major boost in both his receptions and yardage.

Prediction: Progress

Jordan Reed, TE

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Reed was Cousins' favorite receiver before Jackson and Garcon left town. He can expect to be relied upon even more now they are gone.

Two numbers underline Reed's importance to his quarterback in recent seasons, per ESPN's Keim: "Cousins owns a 121.4 passer rating on 201 targets to Reed during the past two years."

Those figures are the clearest indication of Reed's value in Washington's offense. Giving a player 201 targets underlines how reliant Cousins is on his dynamic tight end. In fairness, the reliance makes sense since Cousins is an efficient passer when he targets No. 86.

Targeting Reed is something Cousins will do a lot more in the new season. There is no other weapon in his supporting cast as effective in as many ways.

Reed can be lined up at multiple spots to force defenses into obvious coverage mismatches. He's got the size to overpower cornerbacks and is too quick and subtle for safeties and linebackers.

The true key to Reed's success is the quality of his route-running. There are cuts on top of cuts and moves layered within moves whenever 2013's third-round pick explodes out of his break.

No player can adequately match up with Reed, who has become the one member of Washington's offense opposing defensive coordinators must specifically game-plan to stop. The obvious solution is to double team the 27-year-old, a ploy Reed all-but demands entering his fifth season.

The problem is teams have a hard time doubling Reed when the Redskins boast so many other talented pass-catchers. Such strength in depth will again be present this season, even with Garcon and Jackson playing elsewhere.

After all, there is still Pryor, Crowder, Thompson and Reed's fellow tight end Vernon Davis.

The only thing able to stop Reed from producing a banner year will be his health. He's never completed a full season or started more than eight games in a year.

Fortunately, Reed looked as good as ever during OTAs and minicamp, according to CSN Mid-Atlantic writers Peter Hailey and JP Finlay. Reed will post career-best, and possibly record-breaking, numbers for catches, yards and touchdowns if he stays upright in 2017.

Prediction: Progress

Vernon Davis, TE

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Reed's anticipated dominance may lead to a relatively quiet second season with the Redskins for Davis. The veteran impressed during his first year at Redskins Park, turning the clock back somewhat to catch 44 passes for 583 yards.

Both tallies represented Davis' best marks since the 2013 season, when he was a member of the San Francisco 49ers. Yet the 33-year-old will have a hard time matching those numbers this season.

The presence of Reed will ensure Davis remains second fiddle at his position, despite his experience and talent.

Davis himself freely admits Reed merits the role, offering this high praise of his teammate, per the team's official website (h/t Kyle Tasman of 247 Sports): "I would say he is the best tight end in the game of football. His ability to get separation and make guys miss, I mean he has it all. He's running routes better than the best wide receiver in the league. He has it all."

Reed's continued dominance isn't the only reason Davis may see his production fall. Ironically, another core attribute of his game could limit his targets as a receiver.

Davis is the best blocker at the position on the Redskins' roster. He brings all of his 6'3", 244-pound frame to bear, both as an in-line blocker or in space on the move.

There isn't another tight end on the books who does the same. Reed is not imposing physically in blocking situations, nor is converted wide receiver Niles Paul.

Derek Carrier, another former 49ers tight end, is solid as a blocker but is a long shot to make the team. Even fifth-round pick Jeremy Sprinkle is suspect as a blocker, despite an imposing 6'5" and 252-pound frame.

A report from Pro Football Focus detailed Sprinkle's struggles protecting the passer at Arkansas: "While his grading improved in 2016 as his pass protection snaps doubled in back-to-back seasons, over the last three years Sprinkle has averaged the 95th-ranked per-snap pass-blocking grade among draft tight ends."

The same source also noted how indifferent Sprinkle was in the running game, detailing how he had the "13th-lowest run-blocking grade per snap, last three years, versus draft tight ends."

Davis will be called on more as a blocking tight end in his winter years. It means there will be a natural dip in both his catches and receiving yardage.

If there is going to be progress in any category, it is most likely to come in touchdowns, after Davis only found the end zone twice last season. Yet there are more red-zone threats around to take the heat away this year.

Pryor, all 6'4" and 223 pounds of him, can be a demon inside the 20, per ESPN's Keim: "His size and athleticism will help in the red zone, where he caught nine of 13 targets last season for Cleveland."

Aside from Pryor, the addition of rookie running back Samaje Perine will make Washington more of a threat closer to the goal-line. The fourth-round pick is a bruising inside runner ideal for goal-line running, a trait sure to increase play-action opportunities closer in, which Davis will profit from.

He won't top any receiving charts, but five to six touchdowns is a realistic target for Davis in 2017.

Prediction: Regress

Rob Kelley, RB

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Rob Kelley was one of the more pleasant surprises on the team in 2016. He emerged from the obscurity of the undrafted rookie market to not only make the final roster, but eventually unseat Matt Jones as Washington's starting running back.

Kelley's numbers proved he merited making the leap. The former Tulsa ball-carrier rushed for 704 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie, posting a respectable 4.2-yards per carry average in the process.

This level of production means Kelley will open training camp as the Redskins' No. 1 running back, per Stephen Czarda of the team's official website. Even so, there are still reasons to believe Kelley's numbers could dip in Year 2.

The primary reason is the arrival of Perine. He was a true workhorse at Oklahoma, lugging the rock 196 times during his final season with the Sooners, per cfbstats.com, even though Joe Mixon was the main runner.

Perine has the potential to be the big-bodied grinder between the tackles the Redskins need in the backfield. He already has quite the fan club anticipating big things in his rookie season.

Among those expecting Perine to deliver instantly is Hall of Fame back LaDainian Tomlinson, who told NFL Network (h/t Washington's official Twitter account) back in May that Perine could be a top-five runner as a rookie.

Meanwhile, Bucky Brooks of the league's official website named Perine as the Redskins' best Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.

Since then, Gruden has talked up Perine, recently dubbing him "as strong as an ox" in an interview with ESPN 950 in Richmond (h/t Czarda).

Perine has the core physical talent and the popular support to eventually take carries away from Kelley, something predicted by CSN Mid-Atlantic's Rich Tandler: "Still, it would not be surprising if Perine led the team in carries and rushing yards in several games as the season unfolds, perhaps more."

A rookie workhorse is far from the only threat to Kelley's production, though. There is also the presence of Chris Thompson, a change-of-pace speedster who still earned a career-best 68 rushing attempts last season.

Aside from having to split the rushing chores, Kelley will see his production suffer in an offense still geared to winning through the air. Gruden is calling the plays this season and has traditionally been pass-happy, a trend likely to continue, with so many talented receivers surrounding a Pro Bowl quarterback.

The combination of increased competition and a pass-first attack will surely eat into Kelley's numbers.

Prediction: Regress

Kirk Cousins, QB

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It may appear contradictory to predict a regression in production for Cousins when three of his receivers on this list are expected to see their numbers progress.

However, it's important to remember that while there is still talent around Cousins, he is sure to miss Garcon and Jackson. Any quarterback would miss two receivers as talented and versatile.

As the 2017 season gets tough, Cousins may find himself longing for the sure-handed, resourceful Garcon and his ability to turn errant throws into good ones. Washington's man under center will also miss the sudden-strike capability Jackson lent the offense, the ability to take the top off defenses in one play.

While Pryor, Reed and Crowder will pick up the slack, their improved production will only replace what DJax and Garcon delivered, not add to it. Garcon and Jackson both tallied over 1,000 yards in 2016, so getting similar from two of Crowder, Reed and Pryor would merely lead to consistency in Cousins' numbers rather than progress.

If there is a reason to believe the signal-caller may experience a slight dip from the 4,917 yards he posted through the air a year ago, it's the burden of playing under the tag again.

Not earning a new, long-term contract after leading the Redskins to the NFC East title and the playoffs in 2015 merely gave Cousins the incentive to prove his breakout season was no fluke.

Yet still not getting a bumper deal after following 2015 with a Pro Bowl-worthy campaign could start to chafe for Cousins, despite his words to the contrary since being given the tag for a second time.

It's a decision Pete Prisco of CBS Sports backed, as he labelled Cousins the "most overrated player in the NFL in 2017."

Prisco's assessment is a slightly harsh one and misses the point of the dilemma Washington faced during negotiations, the reality of a barely competent quarterback being worth his weight in gold in a modern era shorn of quality, dependable passers.

Yet one gem from Prisco's critique of the Redskins starter concerned his middling production during the business end of last season: "After having six 300-yard-plus passing games in his first 11 games, including two over 400, Cousins had one in the final five games last season as the Redskins pushed for a playoff spot. He had five touchdown passes and five interceptions in those games, going 2-3 as Washington folded."

Winning games in December is how the best of the best quarterbacks are ultimately judged. It's an area where Cousins must improve.

Whether he can will depend a lot on how he reacts to the changes around him, while also dealing with being asked to prove himself for a third time.

Prediction: Regress

Ryan Kerrigan, OLB

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If Ryan Kerrigan is not at the forefront of the NFL's sack leaders in 2017, everyone associated with the Redskins should demand to know the reason why.

All the ingredients are in place for Kerrigan to enjoy the best year of his career. The main ingredients are an already highly productive player being set free by improved talent around him.

Few can argue Kerrigan hasn't delivered since being drafted in the first round in 2011. The former Purdue ace has logged 58.5 sacks through six seasons, twice posting double-digit takedowns in a single campaign, including the 11 he recorded in 2016.

What makes Kerrigan's numbers impressive is how they have usually come without the aid of much support along the front seven. He hasn't played behind dominant defensive lines able to occupy blockers and give him a host of free rushes or one-on-one matchups. Nor has Kerrigan enjoyed the luxury of having a dynamic bookend on the other side of Washington's 3-4 defense to take the focus away from him by forcing offenses to shift their blocking the other way.

Kerrigan's production will be boosted this year because all those things he's been missing are now in place, at least in theory. Frankly, the D-line being better should be more than mere theory, after the way the Redskins retooled this offseason.

Stacy McGee and Terrell McClain arrived in free agency, while Jonathan Allen was taken off the board in the first round of the 2017 NFL draft. All three will have a major impact, giving Washington the most intimidating three-man front the team has boasted since switching to the 3-4 back in 2010.

If Kerrigan is looking for support from the other side, he's more likely than ever to get it. Junior Galette is finally healthy and has a proven track record for getting to quarterbacks.

Even if Galette can't make the grade, the Redskins covered themselves by drafting Ryan Anderson in the second round. He thrived with Allen at Alabama and offers a pro-ready skill-set.

Meanwhile, Trent Murphy may be suspended for the first four games, but the ex-Stanford man proved last season he has turned a corner in his development after logging a career-best nine sacks.

With the raw but intriguing Preston Smith still around, there are more options to support Kerrigan than at any other time in his career. Factor in a line ready to take blockers away from him, and Kerrigan has no excuse not to post his gaudiest numbers yet as a pro.

Prediction: Progress