Predicting Progression, Regression for Oakland Raiders' Top Players

Whether the Oakland Raiders punch their tickets to Super Bowl 52 or fall short of the postseason, there's a chance of progression or regression among veterans and young players due to play on the field or injuries.

It's impossible to predict an MCL sprain or turf toe in random events during the season. However, signs of regression may be written in capital letters on the wall. A free-agent acquisition may cut into someone else's production. A veteran may have overachieved in the previous campaign.

On a positive note, a solid rookie year should pave the way for an expanded role or workload as a sophomore. A new scheme could open the field for a playmaker in a breakout season. Some players reach for personal goals, such as Pro Bowl invites or specific statistical thresholds that activate contract incentives. 

It's a basic yet complex game with many variables that affect individual performances. Before the Raiders put the pads on, we'll project progression or regression for six players based on their 2016 performances.

RB, DeAndre Washington, Progression

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Running back DeAndre Washington logged one carry for zero yards between Weeks 11 and 14. Still, he finished with 467 rushing yards and 115 receiving yards during his rookie campaign.

When considering the Texas Tech product produced nothing for four weeks, it's a low bar to scale for the upcoming season. Despite listing inactive for two games, Washington still logged four more carries than Jalen Richard, who suited up for every contest.

In his best game, Washington amassed 99 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16. He ripped off 6.1 yards per carry in the season finale without much of a passing threat due to quarterback Derek Carr's absence.

Washington should easily eclipse 500 rushing yards as an active participant in all 16 games. Furthermore, another year in the system behind a powerful offensive line should help his overall yards from scrimmage rise for the upcoming season.

WR, Michael Crabtree, Regression

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The Raiders acquired Cordarrelle Patterson, who will line up as a wideout on offense, and a receiving tight end in Jared Cook. One of the top two pass-catchers will slip in box-score production.

Since arriving in Oakland, Carr has looked to wideout Michael Crabtree in the end zone. The 29-year-old receiver leads the team in touchdown receptions over the past two seasons with 17 scores.

The ninth-year veteran increased his receiving yards total between two seasons with the team, but Cook likely cuts into his targets in the red zone. With more options on offense, Carr will spread the ball around when driving down the field. Both sophomore running backs should catch more passes out of the backfield as well.

Crabtree won't take a significant step backward, but he's going to hover around 850 yards and seven touchdowns in 2017.

WR, Amari Cooper, Progression

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The Raiders' young dynamic wide receiver will continue to spread his wings with new offensive coordinator Todd Downing allowing Carr to make more decisions in the huddle, per ESPN.com reporter Paul Gutierrez.

Expect to see the fourth-year quarterback take more risks throwing downfield to Amari Cooper. The deep shots will inflate his receiving numbers.

Going into his third season, Cooper will have enough experience under his belt to find ways to beat defenses even when double-teamed downfield. Regardless of the reasons for his late-season decline in production, the Raiders need him to make the difficult catches in critical moments. 

Carr must also put more trust in his young playmaker down the stretch. Last year, Cooper saw double-digit targets in four games within the first eight weeks but only 10 or more receiving opportunities in the final eight contests.

According to Carr during mandatory minicamp, he's seeing a new aggressive Cooper on the practice field, which may lead to 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns.

TE, Clive Walford, Regression

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Cook's presence in the offense may bury tight end Clive Walford. Many fans expect to see more two-tight end sets, but Lee Smith will also see snaps at the position. The front office acquired the ninth-year veteran to squeeze more production out of the position in the passing game.

Carr trusted his undrafted slot receiver slightly more than his third-round 6'4", 258-pound tight end over the past two years. Walford has 102 targets, and Seth Roberts saw 132 opportunities as a receiver in that span. Essentially, the Miami product became the No. 4 option in the offense. With Cook, he drops to No. 5.

The Raiders have a backfield that may finish within the top three in yards and rushing touchdowns, which takes pressure off Carr's arm to save the day as much as he did in the previous season. Don't underestimate Roberts elevating his game to secure the slot position over Patterson.

Walford's previous offseason injuries factored into his slow progression through two years. Now healthy, he's facing tough competition for looks in the passing attack.

LB, Bruce Irvin, Progression

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Bruce Irvin stepped on the field and immediately garnered respect due to his vocal leadership and solid play as a versatile linebacker. He logged seven sacks as a complementary pass-rushing threat to Khalil Mack. Overall, the former Seattle Seahawk graded well across all areas at his position, per Pro Football Focus.

Many talk about defensive lineman Mario Edwards Jr.'s ability to hold two gaps as a positive for Mack, but the added interior pressure also benefits Irvin off the edge. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year will still see double- and triple-teams, but his teammates will have one-on-one opportunities or open lanes to the quarterback.

With John Pagano's prior expertise in a defensive coordinator role, his influence may shine through Ken Norton Jr.'s vanilla defensive patterns. After a minicamp practice, safety Karl Joseph discussed the team's improvement in disguising looks, which also bodes well for pass-rush schemes.

The coaching staff could position Irvin in various spots and unleash him as a veiled pass-rusher. He'll press for 10 sacks in the upcoming season.

S, Reggie Nelson, Regression

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The Raiders struggled to cover the deep ball last season, and a portion of the blame landed on safety Reggie Nelson's shoulders. Rightfully so, as he's the center fielder and his job focuses on keeping the lid on the defense.

Nelson isn't done as a starting free safety. His extensive experience should help the team's focus on improving communication on the back end.

However, he's likely to fall short of a third consecutive Pro Bowl invite. The Raiders added an influential voice to the defensive coaching staff, which may add complications or at least take additional time to rectify last year's miscues. 

Oakland may find that its personnel on the back end needs more quickness between Nelson and the cornerbacks to close lapses in coverage. It's not necessarily the free safety's fault, but the 33-year old may stand out as a poor fit for a defense with two bigger press defenders on the perimeter.