Ripple Effects Chris Paul Trade Has on NBA's Free-Agency and Trade Markets
The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers are not the only teams impacted by the (wildly unexpected) Chris Paul trade. Many more will feel the ramifications of this early-summer blockbuster.
On some level, in fact, the entire NBA will feel the aftereffects. That's what happens when a landscape-rattling move is made prior to the offseason's actual main event—the advent of free agency.
Other players will need new homes with both the Clippers and Rockets switching or advancing directions, and they'll be dispersed throughout the rest of the Association. Certain players will reach the chopping block for that same reason.
Trade targets elsewhere, and the suitors they've attracted, have new realities to contend with now. Potential ring-chasing free agents have at least one new bandwagon destination. The offseason point guard market continues to be turned upside down.
So many scenarios are in play as the result of Houston and Los Angeles breaking bread. And the ones that affect them barely scratch the surface of what's now at stake.
New Homes for J.J. Redick, Luc Mbah a Moute and, Maaaaybe, Blake Griffin
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Paul is the first member of the Clippers' core to leave, but he won't be the last.
Blake Griffin's future is at the heart of everything. Some believe Paul's departure clears the way for him to return, per the Los Angeles Times' Broderick Turner. Griffin gets to be the face of the franchise after spending six years in Paul's grating shadow, and the Clippers can, and now most definitely will, offer him a five-year deal worth a little more than $172 million.
This logic isn't twisted, but it's a leap. Griffin would be tying himself to a regime that's yet to prove it properly values draft picks or knows how to spot and nurture young talent. With DeAndre Jordan's free agency one year out (player option) and suitors like the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat looming, Griffin needn't look far for more established and stable destinations.
J.J. Redick was billed as a goner long before the start of this dissolution, and the Clippers' inability to afford his replacement at least partly factored into Paul's affinity for the Rockets, according to ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst (h/t Slam).
Cap-rich teams with time to kill aren't above overpaying the 33-year-old flamethrower. Squads like the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers will come calling, according to The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor, and Redick will listen. The four-year, $26.9 million deal he's working off quickly turned into one of the NBA's best bargains. This is his first and only chance to make bank.
Luc Mbah a Moute was always a flight risk. Now? He's simply gone. The Clippers can probably pay enough to keep him. As an "Early Bird" free agent, they can offer him 120 percent of the average salary—which was believed to be $8.5 million—before dipping into cap space they won't have.
Except, why dangle more than $10 million per year in front of a soon-to-be 31-year-old when you're not competing for a title or even pretending to contend for one? You don't, and the Clippers won't.
The Catch-22 of all this: Showing Mbah a Moute and Redick the door renders the Clippers that much less appealing to Griffin. His timeline is more flexible than Paul's window, but he's still 28. His best days shouldn't be spent headlining the early stages of a rebuild.
And so, it's open season on the nucleus Paul left behind—the pieces of which will, more likely than not, be scattered throughout the league by summer's end.
Let the Bidding on DeAndre Jordan Begin!
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Another wrench in the Clippers' plans to retain Griffin: Jordan's future.
Re-signing Griffin won't stop them from shopping the skyscraper. He has a player option worth $24.1 million for 2018-19, just ahead of his 30th birthday. It doesn't matter whether he opts in or explores free agency. Two more seasons is the cap on his shelf life in Los Angeles. He doesn't factor into the long-term picture of a reclamation project—not when the point guard who's assisted on 28.5 percent of his made baskets since 2011-12 is now orbiting James Harden drives.
Things change if the Clippers bind themselves to the middle and hope for luck. Retaining Griffin and Jordan with Patrick Beverley in the fold should put them in the hunt for a postseason slot. Or maybe not.
As Yahoo Sports' Eric Freeman wondered aloud:
"Griffin and Jordan have always benefited from playing with such an effective distributor, and score-first role players such as Crawford and Williams can only maximize their worth if they're coming off the bench as a change of pace. This roster needs more creators, and it's not clear that any good ones are on the market in the Clippers' price range. For that matter, Rivers does not have a sterling reputation as a salary-cap whiz. This process is going to take lots of work and attention to detail."
Teams were already calling the Clippers about Jordan's availability, perhaps sensing the end of Paul's tenure in Hollywood, according to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. Those inquiries should multiply now, with the Clippers facing their worst-case scenario—some form of a rebuild sans the picks and prospects to anchor it.
Can they turn down an offer of John Henson, No. 17 pick D.J. Wilson (after he signs his rookie deal), Spencer Hawes' expiring pact and a 2018 first-rounder for Jordan and Wesley Johnson's empty calories? What if the Celtics dangle Terry Rozier and a couple non-Nets first-round picks should they whiff on their Griffin and Hayward pursuits?
Any reasonable path the Clippers choose includes auctioning off Jordan to the highest bidder. Letting his situation ride into the summer (or potentially next season) is a good way to get burned.
Indiana Gets Leverage in Paul George Trade Talks
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Indiana Pacers president Kevin Pritchard is free to do his best Sam Cassell dance after the Paul trade—insofar as being forced to deal a top-20 player can warrant lewd celebration.
"We looked at a lot of things that included draft picks, but at the end of the day, there's so much other stuff that doesn't include draft picks that we decided to stay put and look at everything that's on the board in the future," he said of the Pacers to retain George beyond last Friday, per ESPN.com's Mike Wells. "We're not going to make a bad deal. We want to get what we want."
The notion of holding out for better offers on a player whose value diminishes by the day sounded absurd—almost as unfathomable as Indiana being blindsided by George's intent to leave in the first place.
Everyone knows George is in love with the Los Angeles Lakers. Interested suitors must operate under the guise that he's a one-season rental. Smart teams don't open their treasure chests for self-admitted fight risks.
But waiting has turned out to be in the Pacers' best interests.
The Rockets feel good about their chances of acquiring George, according to ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon, most likely because they won't fret over losing multiple firsts (2020 and 2022 at the earliest) when they have Harden and Paul to pitch the All-Star wing. If they push the bill, it increases what the Celtics must pony up. And if you have two suitors going all-out, the Cleveland Cavaliers have to work that much harder to find a competitive three- or four-team deal built around Kevin Love. The San Antonio Spurs might even be involved, according to USA Today's Sam Amick.
All these extra aggressors will, at some point, push the Lakers into a tough decision. They remain George's preferred destination, but as Amick notes, he's open to the possibility of staying elsewhere. Do the Lakers roll the dice on signing him 2018 if he gets sent to a contender? Do they up their best offer to ensure that doesn't happen? Do they abandon these overtures altogether?
Props to Pritchard for playing the slightly longer game. He isn't getting the Lakers' or Nets' pick from the Celtics, as he's thus far requested, per the Boston Herald's Mark Murphy. But the Pacers now have the leverage to get more of what they want.
Destinations Abound for Ring-Chasing Free Agents
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Add Houston to the list of teams ringless players can talk themselves into joining at a discount.
General manager Daryl Morey completed the Paul trade without eating into the Rockets' best free-agency tools. They'll have the full use of the mid-level ($8.4 million) and biannual ($3.2 million) exceptions.
Pairing these with the opportunity to play alongside Harden, Paul and maybe George will speak to quality veterans on the prowl for championships. And that's a big deal. Those hardware-hungry were previously limited almost exclusively to the Cavaliers, Spurs and Golden State Warriors. The Rockets now have their own superteam to tout even without another splashy addition.
That won't get them a seat at the table for second-tier studs like Redick, JaMychal Green, Joe Ingles, C.J. Miles and Patrick Patterson. But it should put them in play for Tony Allen, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha and P.J. Tucker, among others, without needing to account for ludicrous pay cuts.
In the unlikely event Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks reach a buyout, he's no longer a lock to join LeBron James in Cleveland. Paul was "telling people" not too long ago he wanted to play with Anthony, per ESPN.com's Ian Begley. So Houston has a direct line to unlocking "Olympics Melo"—provided he and Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni agree to play nice.
Even the Celtics could enter this territory. They have designs on adding both George and Hayward, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski. Though they won't wield the same exception flexibility as a team forced to operate under the cap, the completion of a monumental coup and the prospect of genuinely challenging the Cavaliers should reel in a few vets open to playing at clearance-rack prices.
Two more bandwagon options doesn't seem like a lot, yet it is. Cleveland and Golden State, plus San Antonio, were thought to have indelibly monopolized the ring-chaser market. Boston and Houston wedging their way into the discussion is a big deal.
Free-Agent Point Guards Keep Losing Leverage
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Two more point guard suitors are now off the board following the Paul trade. For those keeping score at home, this brings the grand total to "roughly every team."
The Clippers were only ever in the market for Paul. They don't have the cap flexibility to chase a big name without him and would pass even if they did. Reckless spending isn't the hallmark of a rebuilding squad. The Rockets, meanwhile, were in the mix to sign a star point guard. Paul gives them one, and while D'Antoni can never have too many floor generals, the Rockets would have to dump both Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon without taking back salary to snag another.
These developments come on the heels of a predraft and mid-draft windfall that removed a ton of possible big spenders from the point guard fray.
The Dallas Mavericks (Dennis Smith Jr.), Los Angeles Lakers (Lonzo Ball), Philadelphia 76ers (Markelle Fultz) and Sacramento Kings (De'Aaron Fox) all selected cornerstone prospects at the position. The Knicks rolled with Frank Ntilikina, another backcourt building block. The Brooklyn Nets traded for D'Angelo Russell. The Chicago Bulls added Kris Dunn to a carousel that'll include Jerian Grant, Cameron Payne and potentially Rajon Rondo.
Where in the heck are George Hill, Jrue Holiday, Kyle Lowry, Patty Mills and Jeff Teague supposed to go for leverage now?
Holiday will be fine. The New Orleans Pelicans don't have the wiggle room to replace him. Bobby Marks said on a recent episode of The Vertical Podcast with Chris Mannix that Holiday should end up with near-max money to stay put.
At least one of the remaining names will be dandy as well. The Kings and Knicks are wild cards and likely good for one indefensible point guard investment between them. New York, for its part, is already flirting with Teague, per Begley.
Still, which team's cap space does Lowry use to strong-arm Toronto into offering him a fifth year? Who is tendering Hill the crazy offer the Utah Jazz have feared for so long? Does Mills have a better shot at being overpaid than anyone else simply because he's cheaper overall? Will the Mavericks or Sixers heavily invest in a point guard despite drafting high-end kiddies to run the offense?
Talent always gets paid, and there's no shortage of marquee names up for grabs. But the Paul trade has advanced the developing exclusivity of an increasingly complicated point guard market.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Salary information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
