Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Odds, NBA Betting Pick

For the second time in as many seasons, the Golden State Warriors will have the opportunity to win the NBA Finals at home in Game 5 when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday as big favorites.

Last year, the Warriors closed as 5.5-point home chalk in Game 5 and fell 112-97 to the Cavaliers, the first of three consecutive losses after they took a 3-1 series lead.

Point spread: The Warriors opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total is at 230.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 119.0-112.6, Warriors (NBA picks on every game)

Why the Cavaliers can cover the spread

No team has come back from 3-0 down to win a best-of-seven playoff series in NBA history, but Cleveland could not have played any better offensively in earning its first win.

Golden State will have some nightmares about surrendering a playoff-record 24 three-pointers in a 137-116 Game 4 rout last Friday by the Cavs, who hope to get in their opponent's heads again. If that happens, we could well be witnessing history in the making.

The biggest weakness of the Warriors is their defense, and that was exposed in the last game. Cleveland won Game 5 on the road in 2016 and can do it again here.

Why the Warriors can cover the spread

Golden State simply cannot afford to lose this game in a nearly identical spot. The biggest difference this year is that the Warriors jumped out to a 3-0 series lead rather than 3-1, increasing their chances to win the NBA championship for the second time in three years based on past history.

The Warriors have not lost back-to-back games since March 11, when they suffered through a three-game losing streak without Kevin Durant. Golden State can still become the first team ever to go 16-1 in the playoffs with a victory in Game 5, and that is the goal right now.

Smart betting pick

Despite their Game 5 loss, the Warriors are still 6-1 against the spread in their last seven postseason games and dominated the Cavs in the first two of this series, winning by an average of more than 20 points.

They need to have a short memory with regards to the last game but remember how well they played in the first three.

Cleveland will not perform any better on offense and needs to maintain that level to pull off another upset. That is unlikely, so look for Golden State to send its fans home with a title and cover.

NBA betting trends

Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.

The total has gone over in four of Cleveland's last six games on the road.

The total has gone over in four of Golden State's last five games at home.

All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.