Predicting Dallas Cowboys' Stat Leaders in 2017
Predicting a player's year-end statistics is always a tough job considering the number of factors that go into a given stat.
There are so many variables that could impact figures for passing yards, for example. I could give numerous examples of events that could change a quarterback's passing total, and I'm sure you could name a few yourself.
While predicting year-end stats is difficult, determining who will lead a team in a certain category is a much easier task.
If I would have asked anyone at this time last year who would lead the Cowboys in rushing in 2016, not a single person would have responded with a name other than Ezekiel Elliott.
Some statistical categories are easy to predict (rushing yards) while others are more difficult (sacks).
Without further ado, here is my guess as to who will lead the Cowboys in each major statistical category in 2017 and my best guess as to what their season-ending total will look like.
Passing Stats
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Passing Yards:
1. Dak Prescott (3,997)
2. Kellen Moore (167)
Passing Touchdowns:
1. Dak Prescott (29)
2. Kellen Moore (1)
Interceptions:
1. Dak Prescott (9)
2. Kellen Moore (1)
With Dak Prescott entering his second season as a starter, the Cowboys will likely put more on his plate in the passing game. Prescott averaged just over 28 passing attempts per game as a rookie, so expect that total to rise in his sophomore year. In turn, he should throw for significantly more yards and touchdowns in Dallas' high-powered offense.
Prescott threw just five interceptions in his final year in college and only four in his first 16 games as the Cowboys starter in 2016. But to expect him to stay around four to five interceptions throughout his career is ambitious. Instead, expect Prescott to regress to the mean and end the season closer to double digit interceptions.
Kellen Moore is the only other quarterback on the roster, and the Cowboys' are hoping and praying that he never has to enter a game in 2017. He has limited tools for a backup and wouldn't be able to contribute much if Prescott went down for an extended period of time. It's not far-fetched to believe that if Prescott were to go down due to an injury, the Cowboys would call Tony Romo before having to rely on Moore.
Rushing Stats
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Carries:
1. Ezekiel Elliott (318)
2. Darren McFadden (67)
3. Dak Prescott (51)
Rushing Yards:
1. Ezekiel Elliott (1,611)
2. Darren McFadden (301)
3. Dak Prescott (255)
Rushing Touchdowns:
1. Ezekiel Elliott (16)
2. Dak Prescott (3)
3. Darren McFadden (2)
In 15 games, Elliott rushed for 1,631 yards and 15 touchdowns during his outstanding rookie season. While it's fair to assume that his stats should rise in his second season, there are a few issues that need to be discussed.
The first is that the Cowboys' offensive line might not be as dominant in 2017 as it was in his rookie year. The Cowboys will be adding two new starters at left guard and right tackle this season, and that could be a rough transition in the earlier portion of the season.
The second is that Dallas had many favorable game-scripts in 2016. The Cowboys finished 13-3, and that allowed them to ride Elliott in the fourth quarter as the team tried to run out the clock.
With a much tougher schedule in 2017, Dallas may not be able to feed Elliott as much late in games as they did in the previous season. His stats on the ground may look the same, but he should have an uptick in catches and receiving yards because of this.
However, Elliott is so special as a runner, and with a full offseason in the Cowboys' offense and hopefully even better quarterback play, he should be able to match his 2016 numbers. Expect Elliott to be in contention for MVP honors in 2017.
In 2016, Prescott finished second on the team in rushing yards and touchdowns. While Prescott will always be a threat on the ground, he will likely run less as he grows as a passer. However, he's still a threat to run for five touchdowns in any given year.
Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris will battle for the right to be the team's No. 2 running back in camp. But all signs point to McFadden getting the job. Dallas doesn't want to overwork Elliott, so expect to see McFadden on the field for the third and sixth series of every game.
McFadden won't post gaudy stats, but he could reach 400 rushing yards if the Cowboys can continue to use favorable game scripts.
Receiving Stats
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Receptions:
1. Dez Bryant (75)
2. Cole Beasley (71)
3. Jason Witten (65)
Receiving Yards:
1. Dez Bryant (1,050)
2. Cole Beasley (821)
3. Terrance Williams (677)
Receiving Touchdowns:
1. Dez Bryant (10)
2. Terrance Williams (6)
3. Cole Beasley (5)
Assuming Dez Bryant stays healthy for all 16 games, he will obliterate the numbers listed above. But for this exercise, I'm going to assume that Bryant only plays 13 games, as he's struggled to stay on the field in the past two seasons.
Bryant severely missed Tony Romo in the first half of the season. Through the team's first eight games, Bryant caught just 16 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns. But after his awful one catch for 19-yard performance against Cleveland, Bryant took off.
Including the playoff game, Bryant caught 43 passes for 646 yards and scored nine total touchdowns in his final eight games (not counting Week 17 in which he played just one drive). Bryant is healthy entering 2017 and with a full offseason to work with Prescott, he's a lock for double-digit touchdowns if he plays at least 12 games.
Cole Beasley is really the team's No. 2 receiver, and he is a solid bet to catch 70 passes again in 2017. Due to the Cowboys' run-heavy scheme, Beasley's ceiling is somewhat capped as he's often replaced by an extra tight end or a fullback on first and second down. However, he's one of Dak Prescott's favorite targets on third downs.
Terrance Williams will never be an 80-plus catch player, but he could score eight touchdowns in any given year. He's an unspectacular outside receiver, but he's reliable and can surprise defenders with his buildup speed. Expect Williams to catch around 50 passes and five or so touchdowns in 2017.
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Tackle Totals
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Total Tackles:
1. Sean Lee (138)
2. Byron Jones (85)
3. Jaylon Smith (75)
In 2015, the Cowboys decided to move Sean Lee to the weak side linebacker spot in order to help him stay healthy. And to Lee and the team's credit, it's worked.
Lee has missed just three games over the past two seasons, two of which have been due to rest. In 2016, he missed just three defensive snaps all season before sitting out Week 17 in preparation for the playoffs. The move helped Lee stay out of trouble on a play-to-play basis, as he's no longer asked to take on offensive lineman in the run game.
When healthy, Lee is one of the most productive linebackers in the NFL. He was voted First-Team All-Pro in 2016 for the first time in his career. Lee didn't force many turnovers in 2016, but he filled the stat sheet with over 130 tackles. Lee recorded double-digit tackles in nine regular season games in 2016.
With the potential of a more talented defensive line in 2016, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Lee approaches 150 total tackles for the first time in his career. No other Cowboys' player will come close to the tackle stats that Lee should post in 2017.
If fully healthy, Jaylon Smith would challenge Lee for the "Tackle Crown" in 2017. However, he will likely need to use an AFO brace in his first season on the field. Smith's snaps could be monitored in 2017, but he should be able to produce high tackle numbers per snap.
Sack Totals
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Sacks:
1. David Irving (8)
2. Maliek Collins (6)
3. Benson Mayowa (5)
Of all the statistical categories listed, this is that stat that I feel the least confident in predicting. In 2016, Benson Mayowa led the team in sacks with six. In 2015 it was Demarcus Lawrence with eight. In 2014 it was Jeremy Mincey with six. The Cowboys have had a different sack leader in each of the past five seasons.
Guessing who will be the next to lead the team is tough. Lawrence is recovering from his second back surgery and just doesn't have the same quickness he had in 2014. Mayowa is a nice player, but he's not someone who will stay on the field much as he doesn't contribute in the run game. Rookie Taco Charlton will play heavy snaps, but he's not expected to contribute more than a few sacks in his first season.
The best bet to lead the team in sacks is David Irving. While he may not even start in 2017, Irving has shown that he has the potential to take over games from multiple positions on the defensive line. He will turn 24 in August, and in his third season in Rod Marinelli's defense, he should be able to reach eight sacks with ease in 2017. Look for him to be the team's most impactful defensive lineman by the end of the season.
Defensive tackle Maliek Collins led the Cowboys' defensive linemen in snaps in 2016 (661) and he's a solid bet to do it again in 2017. He's the only true three-technique on the roster and will rarely come off the field.
As a rookie, Collins posted five sacks despite missing most of training camp with a broken bone in his foot. Collins just turned 22 and is poised for a big sophomore season.
Interception Totals
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Interceptions:
1. Jeff Heath (4)
T2. Byron Jones (3)
T2. Sean Lee (3)
Much like predicting the sack totals, guessing who will lead the Cowboys in interceptions often seems random. However, Jeff Heath appears to be a safe bet to lead the team as he has the most interceptions over the past two seasons (3). Heath will have an expanded role in 2017, as he's expected to be the starter at free safety for the Cowboys.
Byron Jones has just one career interception, but he's heading into his third season and is one of the best defenders on the team. He will be the only Cowboys' defensive back that won't rotate and likely will lead the team in defensive snaps.
If neither safety leads the team in interceptions, a darkhorse to take that title is Sean Lee. He's only recorded one interception in the past two seasons, but he had 11 in his first four years in the NFL. He's got the talent and instincts to do it, but he will just need a little more luck in 2017, and I think it's likely he at least doubles his 2015-2016 total.
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