Full New England Patriots Primer for 2017 NFL Draft
If there's one thing we've learned about the New England Patriots this offseason, it's that the team can be incredibly unpredictable.
The Patriots made a blockbuster trade for wideout Brandin Cooks that few saw coming. The team also inked cornerback Stephon Gilmore to a massive free-agent contract while allowing linebacker Dont'a Hightower to test the market before re-signing him.
This is why, with the 2017 NFL draft on the horizon, we still have few clues regarding what the Patriots will do.
We haven't seen New England popping up in many mock drafts because the team doesn't currently hold a selection earlier than the third round. The Patriots don't have a ton of obvious needs, either. Therefore, predicting who they will actually target with the picks they have is little more than guesswork.
None of this subtracts from the importance of the draft if you're a Patriots fan, though. Here, we'll set the stage for draft weekend as New England looks to build for another Super Bowl run.
The Picks
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The Patriots don't currently own a first- or second-round draft pick, but they do have seven total selections. They are as follows:
First Round: No Selection
Second Round: No Selection
Third Round: 72nd and 96th
Fourth Round: 131st
Fifth Round: 163rd and 183rd
Sixth Round: 200th
Seventh Round: 239th
New England's first-round selection was traded away in the deal to acquire Cooks from the New Orleans Saints.
The Patriots also traded away a third-round pick (103rd overall) and received a fourth-round selection (118th overall). That fourth-round pick was then forfeited as part of the punishment for the deflated-football scandal.
New England then traded down eight spots out of the second round to 72nd overall in order to acquire defensive end Kony Ealy from the Carolina Panthers.
The 96th overall pick was the conditional selection sent by the Cleveland Browns in exchange for linebacker Jamie Collins (a player we'll touch on later). New England gained an additional fifth-round selection as a compensatory pick.
Butler Trade Still in Play?
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The Patriots can get back into the first round by moving cornerback Malcolm Butler. The former undrafted free agent has signed his tender with New England, so the only way this occurs is if the Patriots willingly trade him.
There are differing opinions on whether this could actually happen.
Last week on the Dan Patrick Show, Tom Curran of CSN New England said he believed the Patriots and New Orleans Saints have looked into a potential deal enough that it could get done.
"I wouldn't be surprised if there was a plan in place," Curran said. "Or at least an offer in place for him. If a deal is executed, what it would amount to if the Patriots traded him and got the 32nd pick back it would amount to basically that 32nd overall pick had served as a placeholder for the Brandin Cooks trade."
According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, however, Butler is "likely staying" with the Patriots this year.
What we have to keep in mind, of course, is that this is smoke season and everything could change on draft night. If the groundwork for a potential trade was there before, it's likely still there. If the right prospect is sitting there at the bottom of Round 1, the Patriots could still offer up Butler in order to grab him.
We have to consider a Butler trade a possibility until after the draft at the earliest.
Draft Needs
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Until now, I've had running back as a draft need for the Patriots because the team hadn't re-signed bruiser LeGarrette Blount.
However, now it seems Mike Gillislee is destined to be a Patriot in 2017. The Bills announced on Monday they would not match the RFA offer sheet the player signed with New England.
This means Gillislee will join a backfield that also includes Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead. I can no longer see adding another back as a draft priority. This leaves the following positions as positions of need for the 2017 draft:
Guard
This isn't high on the priority list, but the Patriots could target a guard to compete with second-year man Joe Thuney. He had some struggles as a rookie and finished the season rated 138th among guards by Pro Football Focus.
Linebacker
New England has one star linebacker in Dont'a Hightower and a lot of nice complementary pieces. It would make sense for the Patriots to add another playmaking linebacker to play next to Hightower at the second level. The three biggest contributors aside from Hightower—Shea McClellin, Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts—combined for just 2.0 sacks, two forced fumbles and one interception last year.
Offensive Tackle
Offensive tackles isn't a major immediate need for the Patriots, but the team should consider planning for the future. Starting left tackle Nate Solder is in the final year of his current contract.
Cornerback
The cornerback position is also a position that isn't a major need right now. However, there is little certainty about the future of Butler, so planning ahead here would also be wise.
Strong Safety
Strong safety is an area the Patriots could look to upgrade this season. Longtime veteran Patrick Chung appeared to take a big step back in 2016—Pro Football Focus rated him the third-worst safety in the league—and New England may not be willing to move Duron Harmon there on a full-time basis.
If the Patriots think they can squeeze another year out of Chung, they may still opt to draft his replacement. The 29-year-old has two years left on his on his current contract, but he has only $800,000 in dead cap after this season. Another down year could signal his release next offseason.
Pass-Rusher
The Patriots' biggest immediate need is a quality pass-rusher to play opposite Trey Flowers, who led the team with 7.0 sacks last season. The rest of the defense combined for just 27.0 sacks and 9.0 of those came from now-departed defensive ends Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard.
As a team, New England was rated just 24th in pass rush by Pro Football Focus in 2016. There is definitely room for improvement here.
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Recent Draft History
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What can recent drafts tell us about the Patriots' tendencies? Well, for starters, they tell us that New England has no problem with trading up and down in the draft as it unfolds. The team made three trades during the 2016 draft alone.
Recent history also suggests that the Patriots value defensive talent at the top of the draft. While New England didn't have a first-round pick last year thanks to the deflated-football scandal, cornerback Cyrus Jones was the team's first draft selection.
In 2015, defensive tackle Malcom Brown was taken in the first round. In 2014, defensive lineman Dominique Easley was the team's first-round selection. Linebacker Jamie Collins was taken in Round 2 of the 2013 draft after the Patriots traded out of the first round.
Seeing as how the Patriots have already used other means to bolster the offense this offseason, I fully expect the team to again make defense a priority.
Recent drafts have also shown that the Patriots aren't afraid to spend high picks on quarterbacks who are going to sit behind Tom Brady. In 2011, New England made Ryan Mallett a third-round pick. Jimmy Garoppolo was a second-round pick in 2014 while Jacoby Brissett was a third-rounder last year. Unless the team decides to move Garoppolo, this trend probably won't come into play this year.
One other thing we've learned in recent years is that New England won't hesitate to part with a draft pick if he isn't working out. Collins has already been traded and Easley has been released. 2013 second-round pick Aaron Dobson and 2015 fourth-round pick Tre' Jackson have also been released.
This tells us that the Patriots will take chances in the draft while dealing with the consequences later down the line.
Ideal Fits
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Round 3 (72nd Overall): Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
Washington cornerback Sidney Jones was believed to be one of, if not the, top cornerback in this class before tearing his Achilles at his pro day. Now he could still be on the board late in Day 2. If so, the Patriots should jump on him.
Even if Jones is forced to miss his rookie season, he would be ready for the 2017 season—when Butler is likely to be gone. However, Jones' agent believes he can be back on the field much earlier.
"Doctor feels he will be ready to play by the end of October at the latest," Doug Hendrickson said, per Matt Bowen of ESPN.com.
If the Patriots can grab Jones with the 72nd overall pick, it could prove to be a steal for the franchise.
Round 3 (96th Overall): Tarell Basham, DE, Ohio
Can the Patriots really get a quality pass-rusher in the third round of the draft? In most years, perhaps not. This year, however, is different. The draft is deep with edge-rushers, which is why a guy like Ohio's Tarell Basham could be available at pick No. 96.
"He is similar to Carl Lawson, but I think you can get him probably a couple of rounds later or maybe more. I think he can still get a lot better as a pass-rusher," one NFC scout told NFL Media's Lance Zierlein.
The 6'4", 269-pound Basham has the size to play end in New England's 4-3 base defense. He also appears to have the kind of drive and motor the Patriots look for in their defenders.
Basham didn't athletically impress at the combine, but he still managed to notch 20.5 sacks over the last two seasons.
Round 4 (131st Overall): Rayshawn Jenkins, S, Miami (FL)
We mentioned earlier that the Patriots may soon need to move on from Patrick Chung at strong safety. Miami's Rayshawn Jenkins might not be ready to play right away, but he is exactly the type of box safety the Patriots would want if Chung does depart.
At 6'1" and 214 pounds, Jenkins has adequate size to be a box safety and has the quickness (he ran a 4.51-second 40 at the combine) to perform well in coverage.
Bleacher Report draft analyst Matt Miller pegs Jenkins as a fourth-round pick, but he also believes he will be a future starter.
Round 5 (163rd Overall): Collin Buchanan, OL, Miami (OH)
Former Miami offensive lineman Collin Buchanan makes sense for the Patriots because of his versatility. The 6'5", 316-pound prospect played both guard and tackle during his time in college, and he has enough strength and physicality to eventually compete for a starting spot.
Buchanan might be able to challenge Thuney for the starting guard spot in camp. Even if he doesn't, he would provide quality depth at both guard and tackle moving forward. The ability to play multiple positions always carries value in New England.
Round 5 (183rd Overall): Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State
While admitting that running back isn't a big need for the Patriots, let's also consider just how perfectly former San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey fits with what the Patriots do. He's a quick, undersized pass-catching receiver with enough athleticism to also split wide or into the slot.
The Patriots don't need Pumphrey, but with both White and Lewis scheduled to become free agents next offseason, drafting and stashing him would be a terrific plan. If New England needs receiving or returner help while Pumphrey is waiting for a chance in the backfield, he'll be available.
Round 6 (200th Overall): Josh Carraway, CB, TCU
The Patriots don't have a dire need at linebacker but would certainly love to add a future playmaker to the corps if possible. TCU's Josh Carraway could be that addition.
Carraway is a 6'3", 242-pound linebacker who amassed 22.5 TFLs and 17.0 sacks over his last two seasons. While he isn't the fastest of prospects (he ran a 4.74-second 40 at the combine), he has shown the ability to get to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. He is exactly the type of linebacker who could thrive next to Hightower—eventually, of course.
Round 7 (239th): Brendan Langley, Lamar
Given the uncertainty surrounding Butler—and the fact that Jones won't be ready to play right away—it makes sense to double down on the cornerback position. Lamar's Brendan Langley is the perfect late-round prospect with which to do so.
Though incredibly raw (he started just one year at Lamar), Langley has an incredible combination of size (6'0", 201 lbs) and speed (ran a 4.43-second 40 at the combine). This transfer from Georgia may one day be a quality starter in the NFL.
What If New England Gets Back in Round 1 or 2?
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The Patriots don't currently own picks in the first or second round, but this could change before or during the draft. We mentioned that Malcolm Butler is one potential trade chip, and the Patriots could use a package of picks to move back into the first or second round.
At this point, moving backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo seems unlikely.
New England's willingness to trade up during the draft will probably depend almost exclusively on who is available.
Should a top-notch pass-rusher like Missouri's Charles Harris or Tennessee's Derek Barnett somehow fall to the bottom of Round 1, the Patriots may pull the trigger. If a quality defensive back like Washington's Budda Baker or Connecticut's Obi Melifonwu somehow start to slide toward the middle of Round 2, New England may pull the trigger.
Ultimately, I don't think the Patriots will trade up unless there is incredible value to be had. I also think they'd be more apt to move future picks rather than current picks or players—aside from Butler, perhaps. The Patriots know they are in a closing window with Brady, so preparing for the next couple years should take priority.
If the Patriots do get back into the first or second round, however, they would almost certainly land a player who could make an immediate contribution to the team. Does New England have any plans of doing so? We'll find out in just a couple days.
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