NBA Desperation Meter: Which Playoff Droughts Will Last Longest?
Whether your favorite NBA team is tanking, on the upswing but still a not-quite-there outfit or tumbling from the top eight spots in its conference, all you really care about is when it'll finally break through.
By necessity, 14 teams wind up in the lottery every year. And the good news is a handful of them tend to avoid a repeat trip. This season, we'll have four of last year's lotto participants in the playoffs. Last year, there were also four postseason entrants who were in the 2015 lottery.
That's a quarter of the field in each of the last two seasons.
Here, we'll run down the projected postseason sitter-outers and determine how long their playoff drought is likely to continue. Because roster building and franchise trajectories are inexact sciences, we won't toss out a hard number in every case. Instead, we'll summarize where the organization is in its playoff pursuit/fitness and explain why it's as close to or as far from contention as it is.
As you'll see, some teams are primed to get right back into the mix next year. For others...the wait's going to be a little longer.
The 'Be Right Back' Trio
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Denver Nuggets
Having occupied the West's eighth spot for several weeks before relinquishing it to a more experienced Portland Trail Blazers team, the Denver Nuggets head the list of teams in the lowest desperation tier.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray make up a core that should grow well together, and the rest of the roster is laden with young talent that should improve (Emmanuel Mudiay, Juancho Hernangomez) and useful veterans who could either contribute next season or fetch handsome returns in trades (Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Gary Harris).
A full season with Jokic as the starter should produce elite offense. Since he took over the gig on Dec. 15, the Nuggets' 113.7 offensive rating leads the league. Even a smidgen of improvement on D, where Denver ranks dead last in that same span, could easily result in the franchise's first postseason trip since 2013.
Detroit Pistons
Stan Van Gundy doesn't seem like the rebuilding type—not after his Detroit Pistons made the postseason last year, and not with what should have been a talented enough core to get the job done this season.
Reggie Jackson hasn't been healthy all year, and Andre Drummond's stalled development cast a pall over the Pistons efforts in 2016-17. Considering where they were a year ago, and factoring in the possibility of growth from Stanley Johnson (who's had a disastrous second half), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and perhaps even Drummond, the Pistons should be right back in the mix in 2017-18.
Charlotte Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets' late-season push has them within a game of the No. 8 spot, and we should view this recent 6-2 stretch as more emblematic of what this team can be going forward.
Cody Zeller's injury issues destroyed Charlotte this season, spoiling the best year of Kemba Walker's career and forcing a win-now team with very little future flexibility through a brutal 2-13 stretch from Jan. 23 to Feb. 27.
Better health, Frank Kaminsky's development and a track record of ownership prizing the present point to the Hornets not only being back among the postseason hopefuls next year, but perhaps to their getting back up toward the No. 6 spot they occupied in a 48-win 2015-16.
Indiana Pacers: Cautiously Optimistic
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This presumes Paul George is still on the Indiana Pacers next season.
If he leaves via trade, and the haul is young talent and picks, we may have to wait quite a while longer for the Pacers to get themselves back into the dance. But if George was going anywhere, you'd think he would have moved at the deadline.
And if he wants to eventually join the Los Angeles Lakers, he'd do well to just wait it out in Indy for another year and sign as a free agent. Better than gutting the Lakers of assets by forcing a trade.
Myles Turner is already a quality starting center, and he should get better in his third season next year. Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young are fine, and Indy tends to make the most of its late-lotto selections (see: George and Turner).
If you think about it, the Pacers are going to win somewhere around 40 games this season, and it wouldn't take much to bump that total up a few more wins next year.
The only reason they're a peg below the top three teams is the general curmudgeonry of George and the uncertainty it brings.
New Orleans Pelicans: The Experiment Continues
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The New Orleans Pelicans looked like a squad on the upswing when they sneaked into the eighth spot two years ago. A disaster last year and a slightly less epic failure this time around has their postseason drought at two seasons.
If DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis put in a full year that resembles the 6-2 stretch with which they closed the month of March, a return to the playoffs next season is a distinct possibility.
On the strength of sheer star power alone, a team with both AD and Boogie should have a chance to beat absolutely anybody. We were never going to determine the true potency of that duo this season—not with an on-the-fly move throwing them together with only a couple of months to gel. We'll find out if it's viable in 2017-18.
We can't overstate the concerns surrounding a front office that has botched the build process around Davis at every turn. But every mistake the Pels made prioritized the present over the future. So if they continue with that trend, at least it makes a quick playoff return likelier...even if it comes at the expense of a solid, long-term plan.
Davis is still just 23, by the way.
New York Knicks: Can't Be Worse!
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Sure, the chaos, cartoonish ownership and fading star who won't waive his no-trade clause are problems. And granted, it'd be nice if an invisible Zen Master championing an outdated offensive philosophy wasn't the most predictable aspect of the New York Knicks.
But Kristaps Porzingis got better at pretty much everything in his second year, and Willy Hernangomez isn't so bad either.
With Derrick Rose almost certain to be playing somewhere else next season and the cosmic impossibility of Joakim Noah becoming less valuable than he was in 2016-17, there are a few things to like here. Carmelo Anthony is still a useful scorer, Courtney Lee's deal makes sense, and the Knicks can peruse the market for a point guard.
Almost nothing went right, the Knicks might still win 32 games, and it may not take 40 victories to be a playoff team in the East this year. And what if New York uses this lottery pick as effectively as it did in getting KP?
All things equal, the Knicks probably won't be a good team next year. But they can be better, and that might be enough in the East.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Walk Before You Run
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Don't you want to shout from the mountaintops (or at least tweet about) how the Minnesota Timberwolves' imminent and spectacular ascent is nigh?
Don't you want to bet all your worldly possessions that, after learning how to win a little and developing in year one of the Tom Thibodeau era, that 2017-18 will be the season in which Karl-Anthony Towns wins MVP and hauls the Wolves to 50 wins?
Slow up a bit, friend. You're getting ahead of yourself.
Because while Towns may well handle that MVP thing, expecting a playoff leap from Minnesota is a bit unrealistic.
The Timberwolves are going to wind up with a win total in the low-to-mid 30s, which is a step up from the 29 they posted in 2015-16. But adding another 10 victories to that mark may not be as easy as it seems.
Crazy things happen; the Boston Celtics made a bunch of trades and went from 24 wins to 66 between 2006-07 and 2007-08. But this is an organic growth situation, and even if Minnesota adds double-digit wins to its total, that still might not be enough to reach the postseason next year.
A league-high 13-year playoff-less streak could last a bit longer.
There's not a team in the lottery pack with a rosier long-term setup than the Timberwolves. If they fall slightly short in 2017-18, they'll still be a safe bet to make a half-dozen straight playoff appearances as Towns gets into his prime.
Philadelphia 76ers: Trust The...You Know What
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Though it feels much longer, the Philadelphia 76ers' postseason drought only spans five years.
It'll be a little longer.
Picking the Sixers to make the playoffs next season would feel good. And you could probably do it with a modicum of statistical support. With Joel Embiid on the floor, Philly's net rating was plus-3.2—on par with the Celtics' overall figure this season.
With knee surgery limiting his debut campaign to 31 games, Embiid is not yet someone whose health we can count on. The same goes for Ben Simmons, who's dunking in workouts and looking good, but who has to earn the benefit of the doubt on the health front.
The Sixers have oodles of draft assets, could still get the Los Angeles Lakers' lottery selection this summer, and can use their clean books to add talent around Dario Saric, Richaun Holmes, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and several others who've (at least) shown fitness for rotation minutes on a respectable team.
Still, Philadelphia may not win 30 games this season. Even with dramatically improved health, expecting a postseason trip before 2019 is unwise.
Dallas Mavericks: It's a Numbers Game
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The Dallas Mavericks have been in the playoffs every year since 1999-00.
Until now.
That remarkable run makes it tempting to assume the Mavs will sort themselves out and get back to normal immediately. But in addition to Dirk Nowitzki potentially falling off and relatively little cash to bolster the roster, the Mavs also have to contend with some tough math.
We've already listed three lottery teams from the West with a better shot to make the playoffs next year: the Nuggets, Pels and Wolves.
Harrison Barnes could improve his scoring efficiency. Nerlens Noel might be an elite defensive anchor over a full season. Seth Curry may solidify his place in the league as a starting guard.
But the West is littered with younger, more star-laden teams on the come-up.
Dallas doesn't have the youth or the current firepower to get back to the postseason before those clubs. So we're probably looking at a drought that lasts at least two or three years.
Orlando Magic: Slow Train to Nowhere
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The Orlando Magic's ongoing five-year postseason drought is the longest in franchise history, which is actually kind of impressive. An expansion team should have more than a half-decade dry spell in its history.
But the Magic have been generally competitive since their inception—until recently. And now it's difficult to see the path back to playoff contention.
Does Aaron Gordon morph into an All-Star? Does Elfrid Payton learn to shoot? Does Mario Hezonja earn consistent rotation minutes in games that matter? And even if all of those things happen, will it be enough?
There's just no cornerstone here, and Frank Vogel's best laid defensive plans have amounted to squat in his first year at the helm. Lacking a clear direction, identity and, most importantly, transformative talent, the Magic could easily take another three years to sort this out.
Brooklyn Nets: Solid Foundation, Nothing Else
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No team has further to go in its quest for a playoff berth than the Brooklyn Nets, but the foundation for success is already in place.
Brooklyn plays the way good teams do. It shoots tons of threes, space the floor and ramps up the pace. Its offense is still terrible because it has no talent, but it plays faster than anyone else, and Brook Lopez is on pace to better Dirk Nowitzki's career-high in attempted threes for a season.
The Nets are led by head coach Kenny Atkinson, a branch of Gregg Popovich's coaching tree, and general manager Sean Marks, whom they hired directly from the Spurs.
Without control of its lottery picks until 2019 and lacking any young talent outside of Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, the Nets are miles away from contention from a roster standpoint.
But the culture and leadership are in place, which counts for a ton. And don't discount the bonus of being in the East, where it's always easier to climb.
As bad as the Nets are, they'll probably be back in the postseason before this next trio of clubs from the West.
The Cruel, Cruel West
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Phoenix Suns
Devin Booker has a 70-point game on his resume before turning 21, Marquese Chriss may be learning how to do something with his obscene athleticism (19 points and 13 rebounds against the Blazers on Saturday), and Dragan Bender might turn into...well, anything.
Who knows?
And that's the point with these Phoenix Suns—a team that started the youngest first unit in history earlier this season. We're a ridiculously long way away from knowing what these kids might become.
In addition to that uncertainty, there's a broader issue that afflicts all three teams grouped here: The Western Conference is loaded.
Three rock-solid superpowers in the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors lead a conference that also has the up-and-coming Utah Jazz, playoff mainstay Los Angeles Clippers and Russell Westbrook-led Oklahoma City Thunder.
That's six spots sewn up in perpetuity.
Add the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers, and you're up to eight. And then throw in the four West teams we've already pegged as relatively quick playoff returnees.
There's just no room for the Suns right now, and there may not be until 2020.
Los Angeles Lakers
Rinse and repeat all that stuff about youth and a stacked conference here, but remember to include the possibility of the Lakers losing not only this year's lottery pick if it falls outside the top three, but also their 2019 selection.
Unless you're sure Brandon Ingram and D'Angelo Russell are superstars in waiting, the Lakers don't have enough firepower to do anything of consequence for another three years. Getting Paul George could speed up that timeline, but we still don't know if any of L.A.'s kids are going to be impact talents.
As good as Russell has looked of late on offense, he's still a miserable defender.
At this point, giving a target year doesn't even make sense. Call it an "indefinite" timeline.
Sacramento Kings
No star, no history of good drafting, no record of player development, no free-agent cache, capricious ownership, borderline laughingstock status for its trades over the past few years.
Other than that, the Sacramento Kings' path back to the postseason is pretty clear.
An 11-year drought will continue for quite a few years as the Kings fully embrace a rebuild for the first time in their recent history. It's a process they'll probably get wrong at first, which will only set back the completion date.
This team is starting from something less than scratch. It's digging out of a cultural, managerial and intellectual cellar before even reaching the ground floor.
Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein and Buddy Hield will all be players someday. But none are cornerstones.
So yeah, this is going to take a while.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise indicated and are accurate through games played Tuesday, April 4.
